Fantasy Football Week 5: Tips, Trade Value Rankings for Top 100 Players

On this week's trade chart, we're going to take a deeper dive into the philosophy of a trade. We aren't just going to look at trade value, we're also going to examine just what gives those players any value at all. 

It's going to be fun. But first, to the chart!

Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
1	Le'Veon Bell	RB	Pittsburgh Steelers	11
2	Jamaal Charles	RB	Kansas City Chiefs	11
3	Adrian Peterson	RB	Minnesota Vikings	11
4	Matt Forte	RB	Chicago Bears	11
5	Eddie Lacy	RB	Green Bay Packers	10
6	Marshawn Lynch	RB	Seattle Seahawks	10
7	Rob Gronkowski	TE	New England Patriots	9
8	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Green Bay Packers	9
9	Julio Jones	WR	Atlanta Falcons	9
10	Mark Ingram	RB	New Orleans Saints	8
11	Demaryius Thomas	WR	Denver Broncos	8
12	Antonio Brown	WR	Pittsburgh Steelers	8
13	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	New York Giants	8
14	A.J. Green	WR	Cincinnati Bengals	8
15	Randall Cobb	WR	Green Bay Packers	8
16	Arian Foster	RB	Houston Texans	8
17	Tom Brady	QB	New England Patriots	8
18	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	Houston Texans	7
19	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	Denver Broncos	7
20	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Arizona Cardinals	7
21	Brandon Marshall	WR	New York Jets	7
22	Jeremy Hill	RB	Cincinnati Bengals	7
23	Giovani Bernard	RB	Cincinnati Bengals	7
24	Todd Gurley	RB	St. Louis Rams	6
25	Calvin Johnson	WR	Detroit Lions	6
26	Andrew Luck	QB	Indianapolis Colts	6
27	Alshon Jeffery	WR	Chicago Bears	6
28	Mike Evans	WR	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6
29	Keenan Allen	WR	San Diego Chargers	6
30	DeMarco Murray	RB	Philadelphia Eagles	6
31	LeSean McCoy	RB	Buffalo Bills	6
32	Carlos Hyde	RB	San Francisco 49ers	6
33	T.Y. Hilton	WR	Indianapolis Colts	6
34	Latavius Murray	RB	Oakland Raiders	6
35	Chris Ivory	RB	New York Jets	6
36	Devonta Freeman	RB	Atlanta Falcons	6
37	Travis Kelce	TE	Kansas City Chiefs	6
38	Frank Gore	RB	Indianapolis Colts	5
39	T.J. Yeldon	RB	Jacksonville Jaguars	5
40	Jimmy Graham	TE	Seattle Seahawks	5
41	Greg Olsen	TE	Carolina Panthers	5
42	Sammy Watkins	WR	Buffalo Bills	5
43	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Kansas City Chiefs	5
44	Julian Edelman	WR	New England Patriots	5
45	Melvin Gordon	RB	San Diego Chargers	5
46	Justin Forsett	RB	Baltimore Ravens	5
47	LeGarrette Blount	RB	New England Patriots	5
48	Amari Cooper	WR	Oakland Raiders	5
49	Cam Newton	QB	Carolina Panthers	5
50	Russell Wilson	QB	Seattle Seahawks	5
51	Peyton Manning	QB	Denver Broncos	5
52	Joseph Randle	RB	Dallas Cowboys	5
53	Jarvis Landry	WR	Miami Dolphins	5
54	Jordan Matthews	WR	Philadelphia Eagles	5
55	Alfred Morris	RB	Washington	4
56	Vincent Jackson	WR	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4
57	Steve Smith	WR	Baltimore Ravens	4
58	James Jones	WR	Green Bay Packers	4
59	Allen Robinson	WR	Jacksonville Jaguars	4
60	Ameer Abdullah	RB	Detroit Lions	4
61	Martellus Bennett	TE	Chicago Bears	4
62	Jason Witten	TE	Dallas Cowboys	4
63	Tyler Eifert	TE	Cincinnati Bengals	4
64	Danny Woodhead	RB	San Diego Chargers	4
65	Eric Decker	WR	New York Jets	4
66	Kendall Wright	WR	Tennessee Titans	4
67	Terrance Williams	WR	Dallas Cowboys	4
68	Matt Ryan	QB	Atlanta Falcons	4
69	Drew Brees	QB	New Orleans Saints	4
70	Jordan Cameron	TE	Miami Dolphins	3
71	DeSean Jackson	WR	Washington	3
72	Brandin Cooks	WR	New Orleans Saints	3
73	Golden Tate	WR	Detroit Lions	3
74	Donte Moncrief	WR	Indianapolis Colts	3
75	Andre Ellington	RB	Arizona Cardinals	3
76	Rashad Jennings	RB	New York Giants	3
77	Ronnie Hillman	RB	Denver Broncos	3
78	Matt Jones	RB	Washington	3
79	Dion Lewis	RB	New England Patriots	3
80	Pierre Garcon	WR	Washington	3
81	Torrey Smith	WR	San Francisco 49ers	3
82	Rishard Matthews	WR	Miami Dolphins	3
83	Andy Dalton	QB	Cincinnati Bengals	3
84	Carson Palmer	QB	Arizona Cardinals	3
85	John Brown	WR	Arizona Cardinals	2
86	Percy Harvin	WR	Buffalo Bills	2
87	Ryan Mathews	RB	Philadelphia Eagles	2
88	C.J. Anderson	RB	Denver Broncos	2
89	Isaiah Crowell	RB	Cleveland Browns	2
90	Lamar Miller	RB	Miami Dolphins	2
91	Tevin Coleman	RB	Atlanta Falcons	2
92	Eric Ebron	TE	Detroit Lions	2
93	Jordan Reed	TE	Washington	2
94	Chris Johnson	RB	Arizona Cardinals	2
95	Travis Benjamin	WR	Cleveland Browns	2
96	Doug Martin	RB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2
97	Charles Clay	TE	Buffalo Bills	2
98	Leonard Hankerson	WR	Atlanta Falcons	2
99	Karlos Williams	RB	Buffalo Bills	2
100	Dez Bryant	WR	Dallas Cowboys	2

Let's start with Devonta Freeman before we take the deep dive into the philosophy of the trade chart.

Freeman has to be the top priority of this article, because he's playing out of his mind right now and I know that some of you are probably thinking I'm undervaluing him far too much. Here's my stance on Freeman:

1. His touchdown rate isn't sustainable. He isn't going to score three touchdowns every week, folks.
2. When Tevin Coleman returns, he's going to eat into Freeman's carries. The Falcons gave Coleman 20 carries in Week 1, a pretty strong indication they want him to be a major part of the offense. 
3. Freeman's fantasy points in his last two games (69) is more than he had in the first 18 games of his career (58). So, yes, I'd like to see a bit more from him before I decide he's an RB1.

Sure, Freeman seems to be thriving in a new offense and under a new coaching staff. So it's possible this is his new normal. But until I see what he produces with Coleman back in the lineup, I'll remain somewhat skeptical that he's a true RB1.

This transitions nicely into the philosophy of what this trade value chart is all about, and what you should be looking for when you make a trade. Boiled down to its essence, the essential conflict a lot of people have in the comments seems to come from one question: How do you balance what a player has produced thus far with what you think he will produce going forward when determining value?

I get a lot of questions from folks wondering how in the world I could value Player X so highly after a slow start, or why Player Z is further down the value chart when he's been absolutely blowing up thus far this season. 

Truthfully, it's a case-by-case basis.

For the players failing to produce, I'm looking at several factors to determine if I think they are in a rut or if the lack of production will be a trend. Have they been battling injuries they should recover from shortly? Have injuries around them been a factor in limiting their production (i.e. a wideout missing his starting quarterback, or a running back suffering due to injuries on the offensive line)? Are they adjusting to a new scheme and have yet to find their footing?

If the answers to those questions are yes, I'm willing to be patient with those players and assume they'll recover their fantasy value.

A prime example of this is DeMarco Murray. No, I don't think you can consider him an RB1 after a month of evidence suggesting the Philadelphia Eagles aren't going to force-feed him the ball like Dallas did last year. But I've also seen the entirety of that offense adjusting to a new quarterback, an offensive line still learning to play with one another and young weapons in the passing scheme. I still think Murray will produce like an RB1 at some point this season, but his trade value has absolutely taken at a hit.

That makes him an intriguing buy-low option, if you're brave enough to pull off that move. The price is super low right now, and below are some realistic packages you could dangle to his surely disgruntled fantasy owner:

• Vincent Jackson and John Brown
• Jason Witten and Leonard Hankerson
• Jordan Cameron and Brandin Cooks
• Andy Dalton and Pierre Garcon

Pretty cheap, right?

On the other hand, if a new scheme doesn't fit a struggling player, the player is a veteran who has clearly lost a step, that player has found themselves stuck in a platoon situation or a role reduction or is simply struggling despite no discernible outside forces affecting his play, that player's value is going to take a major hit. 

Some of you might argue that Murray fits several of these criteria. Fair enough. That's what makes determining his actual value at this point so impossible. 

And then there are the players who have been awesome thus far in 2015, vastly exceeding expectations. When determining whether that player's production is sustainable, I'm looking at several factors:

• Is the majority of that player's fantasy value coming from touchdowns or yardage? Touchdown production is rarely sustainable, but if a player is getting a lot of touches or targets and is regularly producing yards, it's an indication that they've established an important—and sustainable—role in the offense. 
• Is that player traditionally streaky? Some players have exploded for big stretches in the past, only to taper off in the weeks to come. A historically streaky player rarely has sustainable value.
• What outside factors are contributing to this player's fantasy relevance? Are players who would otherwise be a big part of the offense currently injured or suspended? Always take into consideration how a player's role might change in the coming weeks when determining his trade value.
• Is that player on an offense that will continue to facilitate his fantasy dominance? James Jones on the Green Bay Packers, with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, seems to have staying power. Allen Hurns, on the other hand, is harder to trust on a Jacksonville Jaguars team with Blake Bortles under center.

The "too long, didn't read" of all this is that trade value is the balancing act between valuing what a player has produced and valuing what you can project he will produce based on a number of factors. What a player has produced will set his baseline market. What you project him to produce will determine how much more or less than that baseline market you'll give up to get him. 

The draft chart, then, tries to marry these concepts to give you an idea of how to best value a player in a trade. For example, Larry Fitzgerald continues to move up the chart because of his role with the Arizona Cardinals seems sustainable and because of his chemistry with Carson Palmer, the precedent of him being an elite receiver and Arizona's torrid offensive pace with Palmer under center.

Should Palmer go down to an injury, of course, Fitzgerald's value would plummet. And, frankly, if you are buying Fitzgerald now, you are probably buying him a bit high, or at least not getting the value for him you would have gotten two weeks ago. 

Now, you are looking at giving up the following packages to acquire him:

• Justin Forsett and Lamar Miller
• Russell Wilson and Doug Martin
• Matt Ryan and Andre Ellington
• Alfred Morris and Ronnie Hillman

Not crazy outrageous deals, no, but those are probably the cheapest prices you'll pay.

Remember: The smartest owners aren't just making deals based on what has happened, they are making deals based on what they expect will happen. If a player you think has breakout potential has struggled to this point, target him in a deal now.

B/R's Matt Camp has a few more players you could consider buying low on:

You always want to sell high and buy low, folks. Always.

And as always, may the fantasy points be with you!

All fantasy stats via ESPN standard leagues. Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy questions and offer advice, too. It's more fun than referees who don't know the rules.