NFL Week 5 Picks: Vegas Odds, Advice and Midweek Score Predictions

By the time midweek rolls around, bettors should have a good idea where to place their hard-earned coin when it comes to NFL lines.  

No? This is the regular season, so rest assured lines out of Las Vegas have already shifted a few times surrounding key matchups for Thursday and beyond. It's ideal to play early lines before oddsmakers can account for any weaknesses, but playing the midweek game doesn't hurt either.

With Thursday Night Football between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans on the horizon, let's take a moment to break down the entire slate. There's clear value available (New England Patriots over Dallas Cowboys, anyone?). But the toughest lines will prove a bit trickier, so let's take a deep dive on a few after the jump.

NFL Week 5 Odds

Game	Spread	Predicted Winner
Indianapolis at Houston	NL	IND 20-14
Washington at Atlanta	ATL -9	ATL 27-20
Cleveland at Baltimore	BAL -7	BAL 23-20
Seattle at Cincinnati	CIN -3	CIN 24-17
St. Louis at Green Bay	GB -10.5	GB 34-14
Chicago at Kansas City	KC -10.5	KC 30-13
New Orleans at Philadelphia	PHI -4.5	NO 23-14
Jacksonville at Tampa Bay	TB -2.5	JAC 17-10
Buffalo at Tennessee	BUF -1	BUF 27-20
Arizona at Detroit	ARI -2.5	ARI 20-6
New England at Dallas	NE -9	NE 28-17
Denver at Oakland	DEN -5.5	DEN 20-16
San Francisco at New York Giants	NYG -7	NYG 23-17
Pittsburgh at San Diego	SD -3	SD 21-13

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.   

Analyzing Toughest Midweek Lines 

New Orleans at Philadelphia (-4.5)

Before the season, most figured the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles would be in the thick of things in the conference. 

Instead, this Week 5 showdown is a duel between teams with identical 1-3 records and no easy way to predict the outcome.

The Eagles look nothing like the high-flying attack head coach Chip Kelly supposedly brought to town. While Sam Bradford threw for three scores last week in Washington, the team ran the ball just 18 times and lost. In Week 4, though, Philadelphia managed an upset of the New York Jets.

It's no simpler when it comes to the Saints. Drew Brees suffered an injury in Week 2 and returned this past weekend to upend a Tony Romo-less Dallas Cowboys team in overtime.

The difference in what could be an offensive shootout? Quarterback, where Brees has a clear advantage, something Philadelphia defensive coordinator Bill Davis seemed to acknowledge to Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer:

On the road or not, Brees can lead a balanced offense up and down the field against the Eagles. His defense also continues to get healthier, which will help against a miserable offense missing any sort of creativity or explosion.

Prediction: Saints 23, Eagles 14

Buffalo (-1) at Tennessee

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

The Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans are all over the place.

Tennessee looked promising before the Week 4 bye, losing by just two points to the Colts. Buffalo blew away the Colts and Miami Dolphins and even played the New England Patriots close, yet it fully reverted to miserable form in Week 4 with a 24-10 loss to the New York Giants.

So what wins out? The team with the promising rookie quarterback in Marcus Mariota on an extra week of preparation at home? Or the explosive visitors who have looked dominant in three of four weeks?

Bettors have to roll with the Titans considering Tennessee has played the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis.

Against the Patriots, Buffalo quarterback Tyrod Taylor totaled four total touchdowns while suffering eight sacks. He's a dynamic player the Titans have yet to encounter from the opposition—extra week of preparation or not. 

While Tennessee looks promising, bettors should defer to the Bills in this matchup until the Titans can come up big against a proven opponent.

Prediction: Bills 27, Titans 20

Pittsburgh at San Diego (-3)

On paper this one doesn't sound too difficult, but in reality, Monday Night Football will serve up quite the trap game for bettors this week. 

The San Diego Chargers at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger seems a given. But that's only until one realizes the Chargers just struggled to beat the Cleveland Browns at home and the Steelers almost upset the Baltimore Ravens on a short turnaround to a Thursday game.

On a few days' worth of preparation, Michael Vick threw for 124 yards and a score against Baltimore. Of course, it helped that Le'Veon Bell ran for 129 yards and a score.

The problem for Pittsburgh, Big Ben or not, is the rebuilding defense. It's why the offense had to go into blowout-or-loss mode before his injury, and it showed up again last week as Baltimore's Justin Forsett found his way to 150 rushing yards.

On the road, Pittsburgh will have problems containing the one-two punch of Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead, not to mention Philip Rivers, who is completing 70.7 percent of his passes with 1,248 yards and eight touchdowns.

Look for Rivers and the offense to set the pace of the game and give Vick few chances to catch up on the road. 

Prediction: Chargers 21, Steelers 13

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of Oct. 6. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.