Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida State Seminoles Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Florida State owns five straight victories in the Sunshine State rivalry with Miami, including three covers. The Seminoles shoot to extend that winning streak to six when they host the Hurricanes Saturday night in Tallahassee.

Point spread: Seminoles opened as nine-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 21.6-19.1 Hurricanes

Why the Miami Hurricanes can cover the spread

After three straight wins to begin this season, averaging 42 points per game, the 'Canes just suffered their first defeat, a 34-23 decision at Cincinnati last Thursday. Miami pulled to within four points at 27-23 with over eight minutes to go but gave up a score on the ensuing Bearcats drive and couldn't recover.

Miami totaled 427 yards of offense, ran for 146, held the ball for almost 35 minutes and committed zero turnovers but managed just a field goal in the second half.

Three weeks ago, the Hurricanes built a big lead on Nebraska, coughed it up but beat the 'Huskers in overtime 36-33.

Miami is running the ball for 175 yards per game while getting some good play from sophomore quarterback Brad Kaaya, who now owns a career 31-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If they can avoid the lapses on defense, the 'Canes could keep this one close.

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

FSU is off to a 4-0 start to this season, after last week's 24-16 win at Wake Forest. The Seminoles, despite losing leading rusher Dalvin Cook to a hamstring injury in the first quarter, got within one score of covering the spread as 18-point favorites when they took a 24-10 lead midway through the third quarter, went cold from there but survived a late Deacons rally to avoid the upset.

Florida State opened this season with a 59-16 romp over Texas State, then beat South Florida 34-14, then blanked Boston College 14-0. So the Seminoles have allowed a total of 46 points through their first four games.

FSU is 5-0 in the last five meetings with Miami, with three of those victories coming by at least 13 points. If they win by 13 Saturday, the 'Noles will cover.

Smart pick

Florida State is playing at home, which means the spread is probably inflated a bit, and so far this college football betting season, ranked teams are just 38-50 ATS versus unranked teams. Also, Cook is still questionable with that hamstring. The smart money here rides with Miami.

Betting trends

Miami is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games.

Florida State is 29-1 SU in its last 30 games.

Florida State is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games at home in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.