NFL Picks Week 5: Tips and Predictions for Over-Under Lines and Odds

Painful losses can stay with a team for a long time.

In some cases, a last-second defeat in a big game can ruin a team and keep them from ever reaching their potential. The Detroit Lions come to mind, because they lost their Wild Card Round game to the Dallas Cowboys last year, and they haven't been able to get off the carpet and win in 2015.

But some teams use it as a rallying point. Take the Green Bay Packers, who had their way with the Seattle Seahawks for the majority of the NFC Championship Game last January. The Packers stumbled badly in the last five minutes, and when they couldn't recover an onside kick late in the game, it led to their painful downfall.

That was as bad as it gets, and the Packers had to ruminate over that game throughout the offseason. But once they came to training camp and started preparing for the 2015 season, it's been all business. Green Bay has reeled off four straight victories to start the season.

After picking up a road win over the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday, they return home to face the St. Louis Rams. The Packers are 10.5-point favorites, according to OddsShark, and a high-scoring game is expected, as the total has been installed at 45.5 points.

Look for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to continue their roll. While we don't expect Green Bay to go undefeated this season, they have an excellent chance of going into their bye week with a perfect 6-0 record. After the Rams visit, the San Diego Chargers come to Lambeau Field.

Rodgers is once again on top of his game this season, as he has an 11-0 TD-interception ratio. However, he is at his best at home. The Packers have won 20 of Rodgers' last 21 starts at home, and he hasn't thrown an interception at Lambeau since December 2, 2012.

Look for the Packers to cruise past a Rams' team that is still congratulating itself after beating the Arizona Cardinals Sunday.

Game	Line	Over-Under	Selection
Indianapolis at Houston	NL	--	Indianapolis
Washington at Atlanta	Atl. -9	47.5	Washington; Under
Cleveland at Baltimore	Balt. -7	43	Cleveland; Over
Seattle at Cincinnati	NL	--	Seattle
St. Louis at Green Bay	GB -10.5	45.5	Green Bay; Over
Chicago at Kansas City	KC -10.5	45	Kansas City; Under
New Orleans at Philadelphia	Phil. -5.5	49	New Orleans; Under
Jacksonville at Tampa Bay	TB -2.5	42.5	Tampa Bay; Under
Buffalo at Tennessee	Buff. -2.5	42	Buffalo; Over
Arizona at Detroit	NL	--	Arizona
New England at Dallas	NE -9	49	New England: Under
Denver at Oakland	Den. -5.5	43.5	Oakland: Under
San Francisco at New York Giants	NYG -7.5	43	New York Giants: Under
Pittsburgh at San Diego	SD -3	45	San Diego; Under

James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

Well-rested Patriots ready for undermanned Cowboys

The New England Patriots have been playing inspired football since they knew that quarterback Tom Brady would not be suspended and would be eligible to play in Week 1.

They rolled over the Steelers in Week 1, punished the Bills in Week 2 and demolished Jacksonville in Week 3 before they were given an early bye week.

Now they go to Dallas at the top of their game and in good health. The Cowboys can't say the same thing, since quarterback Tony Romo and wide receiver Dez Bryant are both injured.

While Dallas and New England appeared to be one of the best early-season games when the schedule was released last spring, now it seems a total mismatch.

Quarterback Brandon Weeden has the physical characteristics to fill his role well, but his timing appears off in the pocket, and his passes don't hit his receivers in stride very often. Bryant is one of the three best receivers in football, and while Terrance Williams is a fine receiver, he can't fill Bryant's shoes.

The Cowboys have the 14th-rated defense, and they play well on that side of the ball, but they are going to collapse under New England's offensive pressure. Rob Gronkowski is nearly impossible to contain, and the Patriots have an excellent supporting cast, including running back LeGarrette Blount and Julian Edelman. 

Look for the Patriots to cover the nine-point spread, but the game will go under the posted total of 49 points.

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Raiders return home for crucial game with undefeated Broncos

Who would have figured the Denver Broncos to be undefeated after the first quarter of the season?

Peyton Manning can't throw the ball the way he used to, and the offense is no longer the big-play threat that it was a couple of years ago. The Broncos have the 28th-rated offense in the league, and their once-prolific passing game is ranked 25th.

But head coach Gary Kubiak has the top-rated defense in the league, and with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware rushing the quarterback, they are likely to stay near the top of the rankings all season.

The Raiders had a chance to move to 3-1, but they couldn't keep the previously winless Bears from mounting a last-minute drive and stealing the Week 4 game at Soldier Field.

However, there's no doubt that the Raiders are a much-improved team. They have the makings of a productive offensive team with Derek Carr at quarterback, Latavius Murray at running back and a potential superstar in rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper.

The Raiders have struggled in their pass defense, but that may not be an issue against the Broncos. Head coach Jack Del Rio should have his team prepared to play at home against their longtime rivals.

The Raiders are getting 5.5 points, and they should be able to use that to their advantage. Look for Oakland to keep it close and possibly steal this game on a late Sebastian Janikowski field goal in a low-scoring game.