2016 NFL Draft: Updated Prospect Radar Post-Week 4
There don't seem to be many great teams in college football this season. The Oregon Ducks have fallen on their faces after playing in a national title game against the Ohio State Buckeyes, who are replicating the 2014 Florida State Seminoles by escaping scares on what seems like a week-to-week basis.
Utah and Michigan State are ranked in the top five, but they haven't beaten anyone of significance other than Oregon, who we established is still laying on its face in the mud. TCU and Baylor are once again at the top of the pack, but no one will really know if they can play defense until they go head-to-head. Oh, and the SEC is wide open.
With no real elite teams this season, it's the perfect time to begin to bounce around games and watch individuals, instead of programs. Watching Mississippi's defense to catch Robert Nkemdiche? Fun. Watching 60 minutes of its games and forcibly sitting through its attempts at a ground attack? Blinding.
No NFL team has four losses through four weeks, yet, which means technically, it's possible for every franchise to still make a Super Bowl run. Until teams start getting eliminated from playoff contention, we can't officially welcome fans into the draft season, but we'll do the best we can do in early October by breaking down who is hot and cold after this week's round of games.
Stock Up: Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
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This prospect has been in the making for years. The 21-year-old was a highly recruited pass-rusher out of Hargrave Military Academy, but Shaq Lawson of Clemson had to wait for Vic Beasley and Corey Crawford to graduate out of the program before he could become the featured defensive end of the team.
Not only have they left, but two more athletic freaks in linebacker Stephone Anthony and undertackle Grady Jarrett were drafted in the top 150 picks in last year's NFL draft. The Tigers seemingly always have studs ready to replace studs, though, and Lawson is very much the reload that Clemson needed in 2015.
He's only a redshirt junior, but if you caught a moment of his battle against Notre Dame's left tackle, Ronnie Stanley, who just might be the next Tyron Smith-like bookend prospect, then you came away thinking he was a potential top-15 pick. He made seven tackles but couldn't register a sack in the game, despite finishing with 2.5 in his previous two games against Appalachian State and Louisville.
Still, his biggest impact came on plays where he didn't register in the box score. He generated pressure all night, which at times is better than a sack. For example, on one play, he rushed hard outside but was athletic enough to pull the inside spin move on Stanley, who, along with a teammate, had to drag Lawson down for a hold. Yahoo! Sports' Dr. Saturday managed to capture the video on Saturday.
He was in the backfield early and often, even if his sack total looked non-impactful. The Tigers have been known to "choke" in big games, and some have even tabbed major letdowns in college football as "Clemsoning" after the Solid Verbal coined the term, but a win over the then sixth-ranked Fighting Irish couldn't have happened without Lawson. For that effort, he was honored by the school as the co-defensive player of the game.
Currently, NFL Draft Scout, CBS Sports' NFL draft affiliate, lists Lawson around 6'3" and 275 pounds with a 40-yard dash of 4.67. If those numbers stick, based on relative size, he will be just as big of a combine riser as Beasley was last season, and he has a chance to be the most athletic edge defender in the class, should he declare. He can bend, is stout with natural leverage and can disengage. I'll be keeping my eye on him every Saturday from here on out, and you should, too.
Current Draft Projection: top 50
Stock Down: DeForest Buckner, DL, Oregon
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As someone who has seen 80 to 90 percent of DeForest Buckner's career at Oregon, I'm always fairly surprised when people call him a potential top-10 pick or the top senior prospect in college football. He's a really good college player, and I get the fascination with his 6'7" frame, but is that enough to land in the top half of the first round?
Buckner plays as a three-technique to six-technique defensive lineman in the Ducks' very conservative 3-4 defense, which features a healthy dosage of three-man rushes. That means that only players who would be considered interior defensive linemen, odd front defensive ends and a nose tackle, are trying to break down the pocket.
For example, remember when Dion Jordan, a former Oregon outside linebacker, went through the draft cycle, and people were enamored with his coverage ability and not his pass-rushing skills? It's because nearly every other 3-4 defense in college football would send its outside linebackers as its main pass-rushers against quarterbacks but not the Oregon Ducks. Jordan didn't have the experience there, and it cost him as a professional.
On the other hand, Arik Armstead, who started opposite of Buckner in Eugene, looks much improved in his role as an interior lineman in San Francisco's 3-4 defense. One reason for that could be very simple: When he knows he has help as a pass-rusher at a non-pass-rushing position, he has more in the tank later in games, and he's not holding himself back to conserve some of that energy.
With that being said, I don't think that's really Buckner's issue. His motor is fine, it's his athletic ability that worries me. He can get into the backfield often because he's a talented technician who can limit his surface area, but too often, he can't finish the play because he loses his footing or is outran by backs. He's just not a backfield player at the next level when everyone, including offensive linemen, are quicker. He just is not going to be beating reach blocks at the same rate that he is in college.
He has strong hands and is a quality run defender, but are teams spending money on 3-4 defensive ends who are one-sided talents in the ground game and are on the thinner side of the spectrum? Then why would they use a high draft pick on one in 2015? To me, Buckner is more of a Day 2 type of player than a Day 1 prospect.
Current Draft Projection: second round
Stock Down: The Top of the Class as a Whole
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Every week, I'm waiting for someone to step up into the discussion of the top prospects of this class. In the past two classes, there were about twice as many either rarely athletic or rarely refined players who I would have considered to be first-round locks, had I been in control of the draft board.
2014 (15): Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina), Greg Robinson (OT, Auburn), Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson), Khalil Mack (DE, Buffalo), Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M), Anthony Barr (OLB, UCLA), Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, LSU), Aaron Donald (DL, Pittsburgh), Ryan Shazier (LB, Ohio State), C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama), Dominique Easley (DL, Florida), Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville), Derek Carr (QB, Fresno State) and Ra'Shede Hageman (DL, Minnesota)
2015 (14): Jameis Winston (QB, Florida State), Marcus Mariota (QB, Oregon), Amari Cooper (WR, Alabama), Brandon Scherff (OL, Iowa), Kevin White (WR, West Virginia), Vic Beasley (DE, Clemson), Todd Gurley (RB, Georgia), Marcus Peters (CB, Washington), Bud Dupree (LB, Kentucky), D.J. Humphries (OT, Florida), Stephone Anthony (LB, Clemson), Preston Smith (OLB, Mississippi State), Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, Missouri) and Randy Gregory (DE, Nebraska)
Now, have I missed on some players? Yes. Guard Zack Martin was as elite as a rookie could have been in his rookie year. Ra'Shede Hageman still looks relatively raw but is coming along. Still, I'm left wondering where the top talent in this class is going to come from.
Outside of Jared Goff of California, the other passers aren't doing anything for me. I would say Goff (QB, California), Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Ohio State), Laquon Treadwell (WR, Mississippi), Laremy Tunsil (OT, Mississippi), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Notre Dame), Robert Nkemdiche (DL, Mississippi), Joey Bosa (DE, Ohio State) and Myles Jack (LB, UCLA) are the guys I would have ranked in the mix at the top of the last two classes. So only eight players in this class would rank in the of top 37 over the past three years? This is going to be a really bad season for a team to go 6-10.
Even with those eight, there are huge questions. Goff plays in a system where the offensive line is backpedaling. Tunsil is still suspended while an NCAA investigation is going on around him. Nkemdiche is solid, but he's basically the same player he was when he arrived on Ole Miss' campus. Jack has a torn ACL and doesn't play a "premier position."
Maybe some unknown players start to show their skills later on in the season or some combine breakout players come out of nowhere, but I'm unimpressed with the top of this class currently.
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Stock Up: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
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When people say the NFL is cyclical, they really are right. The league went pass-heavy due to rule changes, but it takes a Peyton Manning or Tom Brady to consistently win when you're also paying your quarterback $100 million. If you have a mid-level passer, but you pay him like a franchise quarterback, it's an easy way to regress from winning ways quickly. Just ask the San Francisco 49ers.
It's getting to the point where teams are realizing that it's too difficult to keep up with the Joneses at the position, unless you hit on an elite prospect. Even then, for every Andrew Luck, there are Robert Griffin busts and Ryan Tannehill purgatory shackles.
The response? More teams are going to build around the ground game. The problem is this: The vast majority of elite running backs are true sophomores. Teams should be salivating at the possibility of a class featuring LSU's Leonard Fournette, Georgia's Nick Chubb and Oregon's Royce Freeman in 2017. Fournette has been talked about as the next great one since he was a junior in high school. Chubb replaced top-10 pick Todd Gurley with ease. And Freeman looks to be a Jonathan Stewart clone.
In this class, though? It's a two-dog race, and both had great games last weekend. Derrick Henry of Alabama and Ezekiel Elliott of Ohio State, should the juniors declare, will be the center of every running back debate for the 2016 class.
While the main storyline in Columbus is if Cardale Jones will get hot again like he did late last season on the way to Ohio State's national title. But Elliott has been the consistent rock in the Buckeyes offense. In every week of 2015, he's rushed for at least 100 yards. Last Saturday, against Indiana, he put the team on his back by going over 200 yards on the ground, bringing in three scores and nearly hitting the 300-yard mark in total offense.
Elliott's game is all-around. While many running backs struggle in pass protection and pass-catching out of college, "Zeke" checks out. Don't believe me that Elliott is nuanced? Go back and watch that Braxton Miller spin move that everyone loves to highlight. That play doesn't happen if Elliott doesn't spring him with a downfield block.
I'm not an advocate of taking running backs early on, but if one is special, just like with quarterbacks, then I see the appeal. Elliott should be a top-20 pick in April.
Current Draft Projection: first round
Stock Down: Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
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The hype on Joey Bosa this preseason was just too much. He's a fine prospect, but he's nowhere near being the next J.J. Watt or a player who should be thought of as generational like Jadeveon Clowney was in 2014.
He's been an impact player since he was a true freshman. He should take pride in that. That doesn't make him one of the best top-five pass-rushing prospects in the past decade, though.
After being suspended for the first game of the season against Virginia Tech, which is its own discussion, he's only been able to post a half of a sack in four games. You can say that he's being focused on by the offensive line, but there are too many threats on that defense to double up on one player consistently. If Bosa is being neutralized with numbers, shouldn't Adolphus Washington, Joshua Perry and Darron Lee be making all sorts of plays across the field? Then why are the Buckeys playing in so many close games?
Bosa is listed as a 6'6", 275-pound defensive end. To me, his best comparison has always been Cameron Jordan, who is the star of the New Orleans defense. Unfortunately, Jordan plays for what I would consider to be the worst defense in the league. Can you build a defense around Bosa, or is he always going to be a second or third guy? Some may argue, not in terms of talent but of importance, that Bosa is that second or third guy on his own college team.
The true junior shows tremendous strength, but he's going to have to be an interior rusher at the next level, not a true edge player. He's going to win with either power, blowing his man off the line, which will be harder when every NFL tackle will have 30 to 50 pounds on him, or with an inside swim, which must be set up from a bull rush. In the run game, he's more than fine, but at 275 pounds, he's not going to be a base 3-4 defensive end.
Athletically, I think Bosa's weakness is his ability to bend the edge. He's never going to completely blow past NFL bookends like Vic Beasley and Randy Gregory had the potential to. He's still a fringe top-10 pick, but I don't think he's the top-three lock he was painted as, heading into 2014.
Current Draft Projection: fringe top-10
Stock Up: Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia
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I'm always very cautious with defensive backs who are considered great run defenders. That trait is great, and defensive backs should be able to consistently tackle. It's one of the traits that the majority of championship teams share, but "run defender" at safety or cornerback usually means "this guy can't cover."
The prospect who always sticks out in that label to me is Ahmad Dixon. Heading into the 2013 season, many loved the Baylor safety's potential as a Kam Chancellor type. The problem was, Chancellor had three inches, 25 pounds and an Earl Thomas on Dixon. Chancellor is very much the Russell Wilson or Drew Brees of safeties—the guy who history says shouldn't succeed, but they bypass the box they've been placed in.
Dixon could hit like a linebacker, but at around 210 pounds, he had to play in the defensive backfield. Unfortunately, he couldn't cover worth a lick and was targeted over and over during his senior year. He eventually was drafted 248th, a steep drop from where he sat with the draft media that August, in the 2014 draft. After bouncing around with four teams in his rookie year, he hasn't been seen on a roster since May of this year.
To me, that's who Karl Joseph of West Virginia was coming into the year. At 5'11" and 197 pounds, he has a similar build, style of play and is also a Big 12 defensive back who faces mostly spread teams. This season has changed my mind, though. Whereas in the past, the Mountaineers have been an offensively backed team, they are now real contenders because of their defense, and Joseph is a big part.
Joseph is still laying wood in pursuit, but his coverage skills have improved, too. Against Oklahoma last week, he recorded a sack, an interception and a pass deflection. On the year, he has five interceptions, but don't assume he's going to be a playmaker once he gets the ball in his hands. Only one was returned for a positive gain.
This Vine, per Rotoworld's Josh Norris, generally sums up what to expect from him at the next level. He's an enforcer.
Current Draft Projection: fourth round
Stock Up: Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky
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As a sophomore at Ohio State, Noah Spence recorded 7.5 sacks in 2013. The now 6'3", 261-pound redshirt junior was on track to spend three years in Columbus before heading to the NFL. Had he finished through with those expectations, he would have contributed to last season's national championship team and likely headed to the professional level after a win against Oregon.
His sophomore campaign shed some light on Spence off the field, though. He was suspended for the Orange Bowl and the first two games of 2014 due to a failed drug test. When he was set to return, he failed another, forcing him to miss the season. He declared for the 2015 draft on Twitter but then later pulled out.
He instead transferred to Eastern Kentucky to play right away, presumably for one final season. It only took a couple of months before he got in trouble again, though. The Richmond Register reported that Spence had been arrested for an alcohol related charge in May of this year.
"Spence, a native of Harrisburg, Pa., was arrested early Thursday morning in downtown Richmond. He was charged with alcohol intoxication in a public place and second-degree disorderly conduct.
According to the uniform citation provided by the Madison County Sheriff’s Department, Spence was observed, along with three other subjects, near a vehicle on Collins Street.
“I then observed the above subject throw a glass bottle into the street, breaking it across the roadway,” the officer stated in the citation. “On contact, he admitted to throwing it and advised it was a stupid thing to do.”
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He's stayed out of trouble since then, but he's been labeled as a bad apple, and it's going to be hard for him to shake that label. This week might have been the start of that. Going head-to-head with Kentucky, an SEC school, was great for the FCS prospect.
He looked as athletic as he's ever been, bending the edge like a potential first-round pick. His efforts weren't wasted, as his Colonels took their in-state match into overtime but did lose 34-27 to the Wildcats.
For the season, Spence now has 18 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, with the final two leading his team. He has now accounted fora total of 60 yards lost, which is a fairly impressive number.
His off-field questions can't be answered anytime soon, but it's clear that he has all the talent he displayed at Ohio State. It's hard to imagine why he'd play two seasons at the FCS level when his talent clearly belongs in the NFL.
Current Draft Projection: first round (talent)
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