NFL Odds Week 4: Last-Minute Betting Guide, Spread and Over-Under Analysis

Sportsbooks have lost money on Week 1 and Week 3 of the regular seasons, but do not expect everything to come this easy post-September, NFL fans. Most of Vegas' faults have either come from the consistent backing of teams who they were high on in the preseason and no longer have redeemable qualities or the irregular amount of injured starting quarterbacks.

Soon, though, the public will return to its losing ways. To consistently win money on Sundays, you need to have a keen eye for the subtleties of the game that get overlooked far too often.

In an attempt to give you an edge, we'll go over the line movement of the week, the projected weather for this week's games and up-to-date injury news on some of the most important players in the league. We'll also add our weekly picks against the spread and some leans on some over-under selections.

Spread Picks

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

The Line: New York Jets @ Miami (PK)

The Pick: New York Jets (PK)

The Line: Oakland @ Chicago (+1)

The Pick: Oakland (-1)

The Line: Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-9)

The Pick: Jacksonville (+9)

The Line: Houston @ Atlanta (-6.5)

The Pick: Houston (+6.5)

The Line: Kansas City @ Cincinnati (-3)

The Pick: Cincinnati (-3)

The Line: New York Giants @ Buffalo (-5.5)

The Pick: New York Giants (+5.5)

The Line: Philadelphia @ Washington (+3)

The Pick: Washington (+3)

The Line: Carolina @ Tampa Bay (+3)

The Pick: Carolina (-3)

The Line: Cleveland @ San Diego (-7.5)

The Pick: Cleveland (+7.5)

The Line: Green Bay @ San Francisco (+9.5)

The Pick: San Francisco (+9.5)

The Line: St. Louis @ Arizona (-6)

The Pick: Arizona (-6)

The Line: Minnesota @ Denver (-7)

The Pick: Minnesota (+7)

The Line: Dallas @ New Orleans (-3)

The Pick: New Orleans (-3)

The Line: Detroit @ Seattle (-9.5)

The Pick: Seattle (-9.5)

As always, you can find my spread picks on Thursdays in Bleacher Report's Ultimate Bettor's Guide.

Line Movement

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

New York Jets @ Miami

Opened: Miami (PK)

Current: Miami (+1.5)

Oakland @ Chicago

Opened: Chicago (+1)

Current: Chicago (+3.5)

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Opened: Indianapolis (-8.5)

Current: Indianapolis (-9)

Houston @ Atlanta

Opened: Atlanta (-5)

Current: Atlanta (-6)

Kansas City @ Cincinnati

Opened: Cincinnati (-3)

Current: Cincinnati (-3.5)

New York Giants @ Buffalo

Opened: Buffalo (-5.5)

Current: Buffalo (-5)

Philadelphia @ Washington

Opened: Washington (+3)

Current: Washington (+3)

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

Opened: Tampa Bay (+3)

Current: Tampa Bay (+3)

Cleveland @ San Diego

Opened: San Diego (-7)

Current: San Diego (-7)

Green Bay @ San Francisco

Opened: San Francisco (+9.5)

Current: San Francisco (+7.5)

St. Louis @ Arizona

Opened: Arizona (-6)

Current: Arizona (-7)

Minnesota @ Denver

Opened: Denver (-4.5)

Current: Denver (-7)

Dallas @ New Orleans

Opened: New Orleans (-7)

Current: New Orleans (-3)

Detroit @ Seattle

Opened: Seattle (-9.5)

Current: Seattle (-10)

Lines courtesy of Odds Shark.

Over-Under Picks

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Philadelphia @ Washington: Over 44

This number has dropped from the opening of 47.5. Sure, there's going to be a storm and two good defenses will be on the field, but if for some reason Sam Bradford is able to get it together this game, the Eagles should start ripping off points like they used to. Why are we worrying about Kelly's offense in some weather? He developed his scheme in Eugene, Oregon.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay: Over 39.5

Carolina's defense is great, but Tampa Bay's is suspect. The more I watch both teams, the more I think Carolina scores 40 or more, while the total features fewer than 40 points. Unless the Buccaneers are held to a single-digit game, this should go over. Jameis Winston can make a couple of throws to get Tampa Bay in field-goal position, since all the Bucs do is kick in the red zone anyway.

Kansas City @ Cincinnati: Under 45

Both teams have quality defenses, and Alex Smith on a short week isn't going to be a great combination. If the Bengals get up early, it's a wrap for the Chiefs, who have to pass to keep their way in games. This one is closer to a toss-up, but I'll clinch my teeth and take my chances.

Weather Reports

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Open Stadium

New York Jets @ Miami (London)

High: 67 degrees

Low: 56 degrees

Description: Partly Cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: S 8 mph

Oakland @ Chicago

High: 61 degrees

Low: 58 degrees

Description: AM Showers

Precipitation: 30 percent

Wind: NE 13 mph

Kansas City @ Cincinnati

High: 74 degrees

Low: 53 degrees

Description: Partly Cloudy

Precipitation: 10 percent

Wind: ENE 10 mph

New York Giants @ Buffalo

High: 62 degrees

Low: 46 degrees

Description: Cloudy

Precipitation: 20 percent

Wind: E 9 mph

Philadelphia @ Washington

High: 61 degrees

Low: 50 degrees

Description: Cloudy

Precipitation: 20 percent

Wind: NE 16 mph

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

High: 81 degrees

Low: 69 degrees

Description: Scattered Thunderstorms

Precipitation: 60 percent

Wind: W 13 mph

Cleveland @ San Diego

High: 74 degrees

Low: 64 degrees

Description: Showers

Precipitation: 60 percent

Wind: SW 16 mph

Green Bay @ San Francisco

High: 79 degrees

Low: 57 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: SW 11 mph

Minnesota @ Denver

High: 66 degrees

Low: 47 degrees

Description: Partly Cloudy

Precipitation: 20 percent

Wind: NNE 10 mph

Detroit @ Seattle

High: 74 degrees

Low: 53 degrees

Description: Mostly Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: N 5 mph

Retractable Stadium

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

High: 77 degrees

Low: 54 degrees

Description: Partly Cloudy

Precipitation: 10 percent

Wind: NE 10 mph

St. Louis @ Arizona

High: 94 degrees

Low: 68 degrees

Description: Partly Cloudy

Precipitation: 20 percent

Wind: SSE 16 mph

Dome Stadium

Houston @ Atlanta

Dallas @ New Orleans

All data retrieved via Weather.com's five-day forecasts.

Injury Reports

Weston Kenney/Associated Press

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Sean Payton made it simple for Saints fans. On Friday, he stated Brees was planning to play and start against the Dallas Cowboys, who will be missing their starting quarterback, Tony Romo. For the majority of the week, Brees' shoulder health led to the game's absence on boards.

With Brees, the Saints' three-point advantage in the Superdome seems interesting. Brees and the Saints are even with Brandon Weeden and the Cowboys on a neutral field?

Arian Foster, Houston Texans

All indications point to Foster holding the keys. If he thinks he's ready to play, he'll play. If he doesn't think he's healthy enough to start, he'll hold himself out. Foster is known to be one of the more critical public thinkers, but the Texans need his football play right now. Their defense is holding, but their offense is sputtering on a weekly basis.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

This week we learned that Luck has a shoulder issue. He's listed as questionable, but there's strong hope that he can go against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. The signing of Josh Johnson, another Jim Harbaugh-coached quarterback, gives us doubt, though. Will we see Matt Hasselbeck start an NFL game in 2015?

San Diego's Offensive Line

It's not often that offensive linemen become big storylines, but last season, it was the tale of the Chargers. After spinning through what seemed like hundreds of centers, this year's team already is trying to replicate 2014. Two of Philip Rivers' protectors (King Dunlap and Orlando Franklin) are already ruled out of the game against the Cleveland Browns, and two more are on the fringe (D.J. Fluker and Chris Hairston). Expect head coach Mike Pettine to turn up the heat on Rivers on Sunday.

Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks

Is it me, or has Marshawn Lynch not looked like himself this year? I don't think I've ever seen a team get stuffed in short-yardage situations as much as the Seahawks have early on this season. A hamstring is causing Lynch's questionable label heading into Monday Night Football, but maybe the extra day of rest will improve his chances as a game-time decision. If not, undrafted free agent Thomas Rawls already had a 100-yard game last week.