NFL Week 4 Picks: Expert Predictions and Advice for Latest Vegas Odds

It's Week 4 of the 2015 NFL season. Surely each team's identity is clear enough to make some very confident picks and predictions for the weekend slate.

Baltimore did its job as favorites in picking up its first win of the season over rival Pittsburgh, a 23-20 overtime victory. It was certainly a close contest, and the spread was a push, per Odds Shark, but at least some saw this coming.

The oddsmakers aren't the only ones giving fans an idea of how this week might shake out. Experts and writers across the web have made their weekly picks, and some teams appear to be very pickable indeed.

You'll notice this week that there are quite a few teams with an overwhelming consensus among the experts and contributors listed across five websites. Knowing the NFL, at least a couple of these picks will blow up in a lot of people's faces. That said, it's pretty tough to pick the upsets in the Week 4 slate. Can you?

Here are the expert picks, along with the latest Las Vegas spreads and which ones look like good bets.

Matchup w/ spread	Mike Freeman, Bleacher Report	Merril Hoge, ESPN	Mike Garafolo, Fox Sports	Pete Prisco, CBS Sports	Ryan Van Bibber, SB Nation	Consensus (# of picks from contributors listed at each site; 43 total)
New York Jets (-2) at Miami Dolphins*	NYJ	MIA	MIA	MIA	NYJ	NYJ 30-13
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-9)	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND 41-2
New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-6)	NYG	BUF	NYG	BUF	BUF	BUF 38-5
Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR 39-4
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Washington Redskins	WAS	WAS	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI 32-11
Oakland Raiders (-3) at Chicago Bears	OAK	OAK	CHI	CHI	OAK	OAK 36-7
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-6)	ATL	ATL	HOU	ATL	ATL	ATL 41-2
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN 41-2
Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers (-7.5)	SD	SD	SD	SD	SD	SD 43-0
Green Bay Packers (-9) at San Francisco 49ers	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB 42-1
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)	AZ	AZ	AZ	AZ	STL	AZ 41-2
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-7)	DEN	MIN	DEN	DEN	MIN	DEN 34-9
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-7)	NO	DAL	DAL	NO	DAL	DAL 29-14
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-10)	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA 41-2

Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of October 2 at 7 a.m. ET. Picks are from CBS Sports, Fox Sports, ESPN.com, Bleacher Report and SB Nation. Picks are straight up, not against the spread.


Take the Points: Green Bay (-9) at San Francisco

When one team has a quarterback demonstrating near mastery of perhaps the toughest position in all of sports, and the other is busy airmailing gifts to the opposing team, you ignore the spread and take the former.

The former would be Green Bay, who happens to employ Aaron Rodgers, the finest quarterback in football right now. Rodgers has thrown for 771 yards and 10 touchdowns this season with no picks. Five of those scores came in a Monday night win over Kansas City in Week 3. He's also rushed for 74 yards, while running backs Eddie Lacy and James Starks are both already over the century mark on the ground. 

ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky passed along one of the ingredients for Green Bay's success on offense this year: 

"

Rodgers chalked up the offensive precision to improved communication thanks in part to a subtle change in where the players sit on the bench during games. The entire offense now sits on the same end of the bench instead of having the offensive line on the left side and the receivers and running backs on the right.

"

With Rodgers playing the way he is and Lacy assuring his ankle injury will not "be a lingering thing," per Demovsky, Green Bay's offense should be nigh on impossible to stop.

Not that a prolific offense is the sole reason Green Bay should cover. San Francisco has looked awful the past two weeks, outscored 90-23, and was essentially one outstanding Carlos Hyde performance from a dreadful game in Week 1 against Minnesota. 

Much of the criticism has fallen to Colin Kaepernick, whose first two passes against Arizona were pick-sixes and set the tone for the beatdown. In the video below, Bleacher Report's Jason Cole noted he's been struggling with his reads in the 49ers offense.

Kaepernick did have a very nice performance in Week 2 against Pittsburgh, throwing for 335 yards and two scores. The talent is there. A bounce-back game isn't necessarily a great bet, however, as Green Bay's done quite well harassing opposing quarterbacks.

The Packers have 11 sacks on the year and held opposing QBs to a 79.2 rating, per ESPN.com. With aging targets in Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis, Kap doesn't quite have enough explosive pass-catchers around him to get out of a jam. 

Where San Francisco might have a better chance of keeping pace is in the running game. Missed tackles have been an issue for Green Bay, and they've shown vulnerability to quarterbacks taking off this season, in addition to the likes of Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles having success.

Week 1, vs Chicago
Week 2, vs. Seattle
Week 3, vs. Kansas City
Position	Player	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD
QB	Jay Cutler	4	31	7.8	0
RB	Matt Forte	24	141	5.9	1
QB	Russell Wilson	10	78	7.8	0
RB	Marshawn Lynch	15	41	2.7	0
QB	Alex Smith	6	33	5.5	0
RB	Jamaal Charles	11	49	4.5	3

If Kaepernick can make like Russell Wilson, San Francisco might be able to put up some points. However, Green Bay should have little trouble moving the ball against a porous San Francisco defense—it can be tough watching Navorro Bowman try to do it all on his own at times—and win this one by a comfortable double-digit margin.

Close Game in the Making: Cleveland at San Diego (-7.5)

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

San Diego is getting more than a touchdown at home against Cleveland. On the surface, that doesn't seem like a bad proposition. Cleveland is coming off a 27-20 loss to Oakland, while San Diego is a robust 24-16 at home over the last five seasons and off to a 1-0 start at Qualcomm this year. 

On paper, San Diego is also the better team, but it's off to a shaky 1-2 start and looks to be banged up coming into this game. 

Three starting offensive lineman—Chris Watt, Orlando Franklin and King Dunlap—did not practice on either Wednesday or Thursday, per Chargers.com. This is a scary proposition, as the painfully immobile Philip Rivers has little recourse when the pocket collapses and took some hard shots in a Week 3 loss to Minnesota.

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Per Chargers.com, tight end Ladarius Green is still limited in practice as he recovers from a concussion, taking away one of Rivers' most athletic options in an offense that has come to rely heavily on the side-arming signal-caller. 

Cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett—who could make a name for themselves as a top-shelf cornerback duo if both could just stay healthy—are practicing and on track to play, but Flowers was a late scratch for Week 3, and Verrett couldn't finish the game with an ailing foot. 

While the Bolts secondary are as a whole plenty talented enough to shut down Travis Benjamin and company, one can't overlook the fact that injuries may come to haunt this group again.

Cleveland has its own injuries, to be sure, but the Chargers have them in areas that are purported strengths. The Browns showed plenty of fight against an Oakland team that could be better than most expected. Josh McCown threw for 341 yards, two scores and one pick.

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Isaiah Crowell struggled in that game, but he could have better luck this week. The Bolts' run defense is about as bad as, well, the Browns. Both squads are allowing 4.9 yards per carry this season, via ESPN.com. McCown shouldn't have to drop back so much against San Diego, letting Crowell and Duke Johnson pick up some of the slack.

The Chargers will likely be hoping they can do the same with Rivers, even though he has stud targets to throw to in Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson and Danny Woodhead out of the backfield. 

Putting some more of the workload on Melvin Gordon could be the key in this one for San Diego. He's put up a respectable 190 yards on 44 carries in three games, and he can't wait to score his first touchdown. 

“I had one and they took it away from me,” Gordon said, via ESPN.com's Eric D. Williams. “But I’ll get my chance. This is a long season, so my chance is coming.”

If Gordon can't get the run game going, the Chargers might find it tough airing it out against Cleveland. The Browns have enough talent on offense to keep this game close. The Bolts will still win this one, but the Browns should be able get within a touchdown.