Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Atlanta Falcons look to stay unbeaten straight up and against the spread when they host the Houston Texans in a Week 4 NFL betting matchup on Sunday.

The Falcons won and covered their third straight game last Sunday by rallying back for a 39-28 road win against the Dallas Cowboys as one-point underdogs, while the Texans will be playing an NFC South opponent for the second consecutive week after topping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-9 as six-point home favorites for their first victory.

Point spread: Falcons opened as five-point favorites; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.8-16.4 Falcons

Why the Texans can cover the spread

First of all, Houston running back Arian Foster may be back in the lineup after missing the first three games with a groin injury. If that happens, the Texans definitely have a better shot to cover since he remains one of the league’s best rushers when healthy. Atlanta just gave up three touchdowns to Dallas running back Joseph Randle and has had trouble stopping the run this season, so Foster could be primed for a big game.

Even if Foster does not play, backup running back and current starter Alfred Blue has done a nice job in his place. Blue totaled 139 yards on 31 carries and scored a touchdown in last week’s win over the Bucs, and either back should be able to move the chains and help take pressure off quarterback Ryan Mallett against the Falcons defense.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta is back atop the NFC South thanks to three straight wins against NFC East opponents, including the last two on the road. But the most impressive victory for the Falcons this season may have taken place at home in their season opener versus the Philadelphia Eagles. They were 3.5-point underdogs in that game at the Georgia Dome and held Philadelphia’s high-scoring offense in check.

Houston’s offense is not nearly as good as any of the NFC East teams Atlanta has played so far, especially if Foster does not suit up for the fourth time this year. Regardless, Mallett is comparable to Cowboys quarterback Brandon Weeden, who ran a similar conservative offense and did not take many chances downfield.

Smart pick

The Falcons are deservedly favorites for the first time this year and should be able to handle the Texans easily at home. Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in its past eight games dating back to last season and finally appears to look like a legitimate playoff contender again. While Houston would get a boost from Foster’s return, it will be too tough to keep up on the scoreboard with the Falcons, who should have no problem covering the spread.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in seven of the Texans’ last nine games as road underdogs in October.

The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.

The Falcons are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games as favorites in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.