How The Huskies Win Over USC This Saturday Can Change The Pac-10

Prior to the college football season and even much sooner than that—shortly after witnessing firsthand another Big Ten beat down courtesy of the USC Trojans, I began to ponder and wish for when those Trojans would not finish atop the Pac-10.

Fourteen days later, Mark Sanchez announced his plans to enter the 2009 NFL Draft.  He goes on to pose for GQ and the rest is history.  In comes, rather, there waiting in the wings was Matt Barkley who enrolled in January so he could practice in the spring.

With his dad’s water polo look and unbelievable maturity, he forced coach C. to make a difficult decision of playing a freshman on opening day for the first time in school history, or a junior who’d attempted four passes for 14 yards in his career.

I was unaware that there would be a “controversy” or open competition.  It did not seem logical.  Here was the National Player of the Year as a junior who would certainly start his sophomore year if not his frosh.

Aaron Corp was not going to be as effective as John David Booty was in either 2006 or 2007.  Why waste any year of Barkley’s eligibility?  Then one could say: why waste any of Corp’s?  Well, Matt Barkley is better and has much more potential.  He is not going to help the team from the bench.

Corp got injured close to opening week and lost his place to Barkley.  I don’t know if he would have been declared the starter had it not been for his injury, but I expected things to fall through as they did; just by a different way.  Regardless, the best quarterback is playing; and that’s what matters.

That is until tomorrow.  Matt Barkley took a big hit last Saturday in Ohio and later drove his team down the field with less than five minutes to play in what will be their biggest game of the season until a Bowl game.  Sadly, he was unable to practice fully this week and will not start tomorrow.  He may come in; but his involvement is doubtful.  Regardless, Aaron Corp is no slouch.

Back to last New Year’s Day and the foolish thinking that somehow Pennsylvania State could compete with USC.  My hopes along with about 40,000 others’ were dashed with about 10:00 left in the second quarter.  When Penn State would score, you knew they wouldn’t again; and if they did, USC would match it at the least to retain their ridiculous lead for what should have been a good Bowl game but never had the chance to be.

So I waited for the Trojans’ 2009 schedule to come out and look it over to see if there was any real possibility they would finish anywhere but first in conference.  The schedule looked a lot like last season’s.  A laugher to open up and “prepare” for the Ohio State Buckeyes in what was sure to be a thriller (both years).  Well, last year it was anything but.  The Buckeyes were starting a true freshman themselves and he did as he should have—poorly against the best defense in the country at their field.

So this year I thought what any intelligent person would: Ohio State would win.  I should have known when the dumb cameraman got too close to the most watched person in the nation that day that that was a sign I’d hoped incorrectly again and everything would go terribly wrong.  A whole five minutes later it had.

The first possession for Ohio State didn’t go so well.  Scratch that and they win the game.  The poor defensive stop or lack thereof at the end of the game was as disappointing and unexpected after they’d been fantastic since the opening seven point deficit.

So close yet somehow it had to be known USC would win any way it had to.  They were unconvincing all game and then the best running back in the country took it upon himself with a little help from a kid who didn’t need to be spectacular, just strong enough; to win.  And they did like they always seem to.

Except they always lose to a “bad” team.  When USC loses, they don’t lose to bad teams.  A bad team couldn’t beat USC.  They don’t necessarily beat themselves either.  They lose when teams enter unafraid and play up to their top billing because of the opportunity laid before them.

Coaches get blamed for big losses but when they’ve finished three straight years with Rose Bowl victories (each game over by halftime) it’s difficult to fathom how possibly the best big-game coach could be a poor “easy-game” coach.  When USC loses to one of these teams, they are not looking ahead to the next week or the one after that.  There is no one they should lose to any year; every year.

This season I thought it would be different and I still think so.  But do I believe so?

This year was Oregon’s to win the Pac-10.  They are out of that conversation after one game that occurred before USC’s first.  One poor game followed by one idiot’s reaction and it’s all up in smoke.

Cal is also highly touted this season.  By default, they are next in line to win.  The issue has not been the parity and fairness within the conference aside from USC the past few years.  It’s that no team has the you-know-what to actually knock USC off their perch.

Every year, and I cannot recall it ever being as open as this year, almost every team that plays USC can beat USC.  Upsets happen.  And USC gets upset at least once a year and to a “bad” team.  Why can’t every team or half of them or even two instead of one take the chance by the throat and squeeze?  Because they lack the you-know-what.

First things first: winning games that aren’t against USC.  Now, this goes against looking ahead and all that talk but any successful team must concentrate on the task at hand each and every week.

I’m not even going to look at other teams’ important out of conference games; only USC’s.  Each team has to take care of business (including SC) and at the end, count up their wins and see if they’ve got enough.

Before the season I had USC winning the Pac-10.  They would go to the Rose Bowl again (how boring but don’t blame me, blame them) and surely trounce another Big Ten folly; not foe.  Foes give a fight.

However, I also had USC losing three games.  This would require Cal (or Oregon pre-Boise State) to lose three games, too.  I don’t know if that’s mathematically possible but I’m sticking to USC’s 9-3 record.

This is how I thought it would unfold:

San Jose State—rout to start the year off right.  The game was good for a quarter and I’m starting to think the Spartans should be commended for their effort because the USC fans that were sitting right above of me; right above the away fans sections, they were all trembling and puzzled after the first 15:00.

Ye of little faith SC fans.  Apparently Big Ten country isn’t the only place where people think USC may actually lose for once and have to go through games on pins and needles; at least for a little while.

At the Horseshoe - this was supposed to and should have been the first loss.  I am not impressed with Barkley nearly as much as everyone else is.  He is good, but people have made him out to be great already and the heir apparent which he will be but must earn that gratification.

I was glad to see Joe McKnight get the credit he deserves after two years of having everyone not only question but say that Stafon Johnson and sometimes C.J. Gable is the better back.  Earlier, Chauncey Washington laid that wrongful claim.  Sorry.  Joe McKnight has clearly been the best and it’s good that you all see it now.

Washington State: big home win.

At Cal then at Notre Dame: split down the middle one W, one L.

Oregon State: rebound win and “revenge” game if some see fit.

At Oregon: was another possible L but unlikely now after Boise loss.  This could add a surprise element on Halloween when USC is a major favourite in the game.

At Arizona State: warm fall win in the desert.

Stanford at home: we all remember what happened last time the Cardinal came here.  Moreover, Matt Barkley’s Mater Dei Monarchs were ousted by Cardinal freshman QB Robbie Picazo last fall in CIF playoffs, but Picazo is unlikely to play this year.

There could be a little more incentive here in addition to this being a crucial late game that cannot be squandered; only added to the embarrassment that was ’07. A big SC win in what I’m calling a must “show-up” game.

Host UCLA: can they really lose to UCLA at home on the verge of a National Title berth or fourth consecutive Rose Bowl appearance this soon after Turkey Day?  Yes.  But doubtful.  20+ point win.

Host Arizona with season in the balance—one’s gotta think they would pull this out no matter how iffy it gets.

Arizona has been the most difficult team for USC over the past couple years.  While they have not beaten SC, the Wildcats have lost each of the last two games by seven; each game with low total scores.  The Trojans will prevail again over a stubborn Arizona defense just enough to put an exclamation point on their argument for their Bowl case.

The only games USC can’t lose are San Jose State (true), Washington State, at Arizona State, and Stanford.  They could lose any of the other’s, and I will split some pairs where I see fit.

They should have lost last weekend so someone needs to make up for it.  Matt Barkley will struggle in the future, that is certain.  What is more concerning than his plausible issues later on is his absence in the present.  While Corp is good and will do fine, I prefer Barkley.  The kid’s got it.

They should beat the Oregon schools but a loss would not surprise anyone.  Two would and that will not happen so there’s no point discussing that impossibility.  Any rivalry game is not easy and the finale will not be easy either with the Wildcats looking to polish their season with a huge upset.

They’ll want to make it to a second straight Bowl which would be a big deal for them along with the opportunity to ruin USC’s season; even if this just sends them to Pasadena a week earlier than when they want to be there.

I can almost guarantee that the Trojans will lose one of their next two road games but wouldn’t be any more surprised if they come out of that 0-2 than if they emerge 2-0 with two more demolitions under their belt.

The Notre dame game in particular will be a sight.  It may end up being louder, more intense, and more important than the Ohio State game, win or lose.

My verdict is to split those two for one loss.  And I’ve seen worse chances than one-in-four for the 25% shot OSU, Oregon, UCLA, and Arizona have to take down the perennial West Coast bully.  Whichever of these four teams beats USC will be their annual upset loss of the season.

As you can tell, I have left out a game: tomorrows.  The game is the most important in Seattle since late November 2007 when the Huskies lost to Wazzu in a major disappointing end to a bad season.  Last year they went winless going 0-12 in what was actually a very difficult schedule and they were also shutout by USC 56-0.

Tomorrow will be an entirely different story.

First off, there is hope at the beginning of every new season for every school and this couldn’t be more evident than it is now at U-Dub.  They opened the season hosting #11 LSU and played a heck of a lot better than they did in any game last season.  Most importantly, they seemed inspired.

They were defeated 31-23 and were behind from a 10-10 tie in the second quarter but continued to fight and bring cheers to the crowd which hadn’t seen anything positive for more than an entire year.  Football in Washington was back.

After a sound victory over lowly (although improved from last season themselves) Idaho last weekend, you know Husky Stadium will be rockin’ Saturday and the Dawgs will be ready to give USC their best shot.

Regardless of who was playing and who was going to sit out opposite, Washington would give USC a good fight and put forth strong effort until the final whistle.  I have many reasons to believe they will be leading when it is finally blown after a hard fought battle.

The only negative on USC’s side is their history of losing games they should win (which is every single game every season) and Aaron Corp starting.

Corp took first team snaps all week and will be ready but that doesn’t mean he won’t falter.  Barkley would have faltered as well but Corp will have to find a rhythm early and when considering this will be a very loud and perhaps become hostile environment, being away from action for so long may be a bigger issue.

Add to that that USC’s leading receiver Damian Williams is out (or so I have heard; haven’t read confirmation so I apologize if I am wrong) and this could turn sour for the Trojans.

With the impact of negatives for SC which may become overbearing, there are plenty of positives heading towards Washington’s way.  Firstly, their new head coach is USC’s assistant head coach and offensive coordinator from last season.  Their new defensive coordinator was just that at USC, too.

While knowing USC’s schemes and tendencies does help, these are proven winners that the Washington athletics department has brought in.  Steve Sarkisian and Nick Holt’s accomplishments include seven conference titles and three straight Rose Bowl victories following a national runner-up showing in ’06; one of the greatest games of all-time.

And finally, for the last two years I’ve been hearing anything but bad things about Washington play caller Jake Locker, an athletic runner who can also pass efficiently.  In a popular trend moving towards versatile QB’s, Locker leads the Pac-10 among others such as Jeremiah Masoli and Matt Scott.

Last year, Washington’s high then lowest low of the season came in one fell swoop of a home loss to #15 BYU when an ecstatic Locker tied the game on a touchdown run and in pure genuine excitement for the moment, threw the ball up to celebrate.

The Huskies were penalized 15 yards and of course, the PAT was blocked.  Locker apologized after the game for the loss.  He in no way intended to show up the Cougars or the game, but rules are rules, and he learned the hard way.

He felt responsible but he too was responsible for leading the charge back in to that game.  Locker was injured one and a half games later and the impressively bad season continued until last winter when changes within the school became rampant.

I know that in addition to his great talent, the people of Washington trust in Jake and think he can lead them to great successes.  Opening weekend was a good start in the right direction from rock bottom; and Saturday would be a great showing that he is the man for the job; to jump start the upheaval of the mighty Trojans with one herculean win.