NFL Predictions Week 4: Top Underdog Picks, Vegas Odds and Score Predictions

The NFL followed a turbulent Week 2 with a mundane Week 3 devoid of upsets. Perhaps the level of unpredictability remains the most predictable element of the upcoming weekend.

One week, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders and Washington Redskins are surprising everyone. The next, no outcome bewilders the league's landscape. Sure, the 0-2 Philadelphia Eagles topped the 2-0 New York Jets, but that would have been an easy pick in August. Sometimes, our original expectations, not the knee-jerk overreactions, prove correct.        

Week 4 offers a new batch of bouts to challenge fans' current beliefs. One undefeated squad constantly walking a tightrope to triumph enters Sunday as the top team on upset alert. That pick, however, is contingent on an injured star's status.

Another promising club could falter because of key offensive injuries and a matchup that plays against its strengths. Before breaking down the two most likely upsets, here's a full look at Week 4's schedule and odds, courtesy of Odds Shark:

Date	Away	Score Prediction	Home	Spread*
Thurs., Oct. 1	Baltimore Ravens	20-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	BAL -2.5
Sun., Oct. 4	New York Jets	16-21	Miami Dolphins (London)	Even
Sun., Oct. 4	Houston Texans	24-23	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -7
Sun., Oct. 4	New York Giants	21-20	Buffalo Bills	BUF -5.5
Sun., Oct. 4	Oakland Raiders	27-17	Chicago Bears	OAK -3
Sun., Oct. 4	Kansas City Chiefs	23-27	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -4
Sun., Oct. 4	Jacksonville Jaguars	20-38	Indianapolis Colts	IND -10
Sun., Oct. 4	Carolina Panthers	16-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	CAR -3
Sun., Oct. 4	Philadelphia Eagles	30-27	Washington Redskins	PHI -3
Sun., Oct. 4	Cleveland Browns	10-20	San Diego Chargers	SD -9
Sun., Oct. 4	St. Louis Rams	13-28	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -7.5
Sun., Oct. 4	Minnesota Vikings	16-24	Denver Broncos	DEN -7
Sun., Oct. 4	Green Bay Packers	37-17	San Francisco 49ers	GB -9.5
Sun., Oct. 4	Dallas Cowboys	21-20	New Orleans Saints	N/A
Mon., Oct. 5	Detroit Lions	12-20	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -10

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons

The NFC South has passed the conference's dunce cap to the NFC East. After fighting to seize the division with seven wins last year, the Carolina Panthers have jumped out to a 3-0 start. So, too, have the Atlanta Falcons. While Carolina has pounced on key injuries and the Jaguars, the Falcons have bested three lackluster NFC East defenses.

Among all seven undefeated teams, Atlanta's plus-17 point differential is the lowest. Before rallying to squash the Dallas Cowboys sans Tony Romo, it outgained the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants by a combined 10 yards, edging out narrow victories by two and four points, respectively.

Atlanta's not a dominant force, but rather a talented squad winning the toss-up games it couldn't close out last year. Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times pointed out the rarity of the Falcons' come-from-behind prowess:

Then again, the schedule doesn't get tougher anytime soon. The Panthers and Minnesota Vikings represent their only remaining opponents with more than one victory through three weeks. They might match or exceed last year's six wins by the Week 10 bye:

Week	Date	Opponent
4	Oct. 4	Houston
5	Oct. 11	Washington
6	Oct. 15	at New Orleans
7	Oct. 25	at Tennessee
8	Nov. 1	Tampa Bay
9	Nov. 8	at San Francisco

Beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers doesn't say much about the Houston Texans. Ryan Mallett is averaging a mediocre 5.18 yards per pass attempt, and the defense looked pedestrian against the Kansas City Chiefs and Panthers.

The return of Arian Foster, however, could drastically alter this matchup's narrative. Per HoustonTexans.com's Deepi Sidhu, head coach Bill O'Brien left the door open for his star running back's return:

"

I think we’re close. I don’t know that answer today, but he’s been out there the past couple of weeks of practice and it’s looked pretty good. Again, anytime we have a veteran player like that that we’re dealing with that type of injury, I think we listen a lot to that player. Basically how do you feel? We’ll go on that a little bit and we’ll go on what our doctors say and we’ll go from there.

"

According to ESPN's Ed Werder, the final word won't come until Sunday morning:

Atlanta, which coughed up four rushing touchdowns against Dallas, has relinquished 4.8 yards per run this season. With Foster and a healthy DeAndre Hopkins back in the fold, Houston can score enough against a poor defense to keep up with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.  

New York Giants at Buffalo Bills

For the first and only time this year, the New York Giants will play football in New York. Although a distinct underdog, the New Jersey team could climb right back into the NFC East picture by besting the Buffalo Bills.

They don't look alike on the field, but the Giants and Bills aren't that different. They enter the interconference clash with the top two rushing defenses and bottom two passing defenses.

Yardage aside, Buffalo has guarded the pass more efficiently, while the Giants have shielded the run with more precision. That's important on both sides, as the G-Men have struggled to get anything going on the ground, while the Bills lead the NFL in rushing yards.

As of now, LeSean McCoy looks unlikely to rekindle a feud with his former division foes. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the team is looking to exude caution with the veteran running back:

Rookie Karlos Williams looks up for the task, gaining 186 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries this season. Either way, the Giants are most vulnerable through the air. Missing Sammy Watkins, who left last week's game with a calf injury, would sting more this weekend.

Head coach Rex Ryan didn't erase anyone's concerns with his comments reported by Jay Skurski of the Buffalo News.

"When you don't finish a game, most of the time the following week, those players aren't available," Ryan said. "We talk to our players—we challenge our players all the time—about 'you've got to be ready to go.' Everybody on that roster has to be ready to go."

Meanwhile, the Giants will welcome back Victor Cruz, who hasn't played since Oct. 12. According to Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News, the 28-year-old wide receiver is ready to make his season debut after suffering a calf injury during training camp:

The Giants squandered both of their tight losses by a combined five points, so they should at least limbo below the 5.5-point spread.