Ole Miss Rebels vs. Florida Gators Betting Odds, Analysis, Football Pick

Ole Miss boosters must absolutely love head coach Hugh Freeze—not only are the Rebels a national championship contender, but they're 27-15 against the spread since he took over. This week Ole Miss hits the SEC road for its first meeting with Florida in seven seasons Saturday afternoon at the Swamp.

Point spread: The Rebels opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.7-18.3 Rebels

Why the Ole Miss Rebels can cover the spread

The Rebs are off to a 4-0 start to this season (3-1 against the spread) after beating Vanderbilt last week 27-16. Ole Miss dominated most of the game, eventually outgaining the Commodores 472-322, and while Vandy kept it close, the Rebs made the key plays at key times, including a blocked punt and a red-zone stand that resulted in a missed Commodores field goal.

Ole Miss opened this season with blowout wins (and covers) against Tennessee-Martin and Fresno State and then pulled the big upset on the road of Alabama, which propelled it into the national championship conversation. And if the Rebs can win in Tuscaloosa, why can't they win in Gainesville too?

Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread

Florida, playing its first season under new head coach Jim McElwain, is also 4-0 this season (3-1 against the spread) after rallying to top Tennessee last week 28-27 and win outright as a one-point home dog. The Gators trailed 27-14 in the fourth quarter but scored two touchdowns in the last five minutes—the second on a 63-yard Will Grier-to-Antonio Callaway scoring play on 4th-and-14 with a minute-and-a-half to go—to steal the victory.

Florida went 5-of-5 on fourth down and had luck on its side, surviving Tennessee's last-second field-goal attempt.

The Gators opened this season with a 61-13 nuking of New Mexico State, covering as five-touchdown favorites, beat East Carolina 31-24 and then opened SEC play with a tough 14-9 victory over an improved Kentucky team, covering as three-point favorites on the road. So this young team seems to be adapting well to the new coach's systems.

Smart pick

Ole Miss is the better team here with big things in mind for this season, and it showed maturity by avoiding a letdown after the upset of Alabama. Florida, meanwhile, is coming off an emotional, come-from-behind rivalry victory and could be ripe for one of those letdowns. The smart money here is with the Rebs.

Betting trends

• Ole Miss is 5-0 against the spread in its five games against Florida.
• The total has gone under in six of Ole Miss' last seven games on the road.
• Florida is 6-1 straight up and against the spread in its last seven games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.