UCLA vs. Arizona Complete Game Preview
The rest of the country may be groaning at a weaker slate of games in Week 4, but the Pac-12 has a fantastic Saturday of action coming up—headlined by the biggest game of the day, No. 9 UCLA at No. 16 Arizona.
ESPN's College GameDay will be in Tucson for this major showdown between the league's highest-ranked team and the defending South Division champion, so the hype is already high.
UCLA is coming off a comeback victory at home against BYU in which star freshman quarterback Josh Rosen threw three interceptions. But a great rushing attack led by Paul Perkins and some key defensive stops gave the Bruins the victory on a day when some higher-ranked teams fell in conference play.
Meanwhile, in the desert, Arizona wrapped up a relatively easy nonconference slate with a blowout win over in-state FCS program Northern Arizona. The Wildcats hung 792 yards and 77 points on the Lumberjacks, putting Rich Rodriguez's offense in a great position heading into a matchup with UCLA.
Will UCLA and head coach Jim Mora go 4-of-4 in wins over Arizona, or is there an upset on the cards? Let's take a look at the basic info for this matchup before the full breakdown.
Date: Saturday, September 26
Time: 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. local time)
Location: Tucson, Arizona (Arizona Stadium)
TV: ABC
Line: UCLA -4, according to Odds Shark
UCLA Keys to Victory
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Don't be afraid to ground-and-pound
Saturday will mark Josh Rosen's first Pac-12 game and his first start away from home against a quality opponent—sorry, UNLV.
Rosen threw three picks last week against BYU, and Arizona will undoubtedly look to pressure the true freshman quarterback with some exotic blitzes out of its base 3-3-5 defense. Fortunately for the Bruins, running back Paul Perkins is coming off of one of the best performances of his career.
With a young quarterback who struggled in his most recent start, UCLA doesn't have to let it fly in order to establish its offensive rhythm against Arizona. The Wildcats are still banged up across their front six, so look for the Bruins to go right at the heart of that defense with their star running back. That'll open things up downfield for Rosen.
Take care of the football
Winning on the road is hard, and it gets a lot harder if you're careless with the football. UCLA has thrown three interceptions in each of its last two games, although two of them came from backup Jerry Neuheisel in the rout of UNLV.
Rosen has to be careful with his passes, as this Arizona defense has forced six turnovers through its first three games of the season. Likewise, any fumbles can turn into real momentum swings, especially in front of Arizona's rowdy home crowd.
UCLA's defense should have the advantage in this one, but the Bruins will want to make sure they give that unit every possible advantage. Arizona's offense can be deadly with a short field.
Frustrate Arizona's offense
Even with the loss of cornerback Fabien Moreau and defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes, UCLA's defense is still in better shape health- and performance-wise than Arizona. Bruins opponents are averaging a little more than four yards per play and 14 points per game this season.
Last season, many of these Bruin defensive starters played a huge role in stuffing Arizona for its worst offensive performance of the regular season. UCLA held Arizona to just 255 yards and seven points in last season's victory in Los Angeles.
Rodriguez and his offense will be looking for revenge, but UCLA has the experience factor of past success against this Arizona attack. If it can force another slow start out of the Wildcats, the Bruins will be in a great spot away from home.
Arizona Keys to Victory
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Air it out
Although Arizona has star sophomore Nick Wilson in the backfield, the offense might have a better advantage getting Anu Solomon to hit his talented cast of receivers downfield.
In UCLA's first three games of the season, the defense has allowed fewer than four yards per carry. On the other hand, both Virginia and BYU completed at least 60 percent of their passes and recorded 238 and 244 yards on the Bruins, respectively.
Arizona is coming off a school record-breaking performance on the ground, but UCLA will be an infinitely stiffer challenge up front than the one posed by Northern Arizona. The Wildcats have thrown for 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions this season, and UCLA is having to replace a senior cornerback due to injury this week. Big passing plays could be out there.
Keep Josh Rosen off-balance
Rosen hasn't looked like the all-world quarterback he was against Virginia in the season opener, and now he'll face a loud and hostile environment for the first time in his career. Whenever the Bruins decide to go to the air, Arizona needs to constantly put pressure on the true freshman.
With five interceptions so far this season, the Arizona defense already has more than a third of the number of picks it forced last year. Good news: Rosen has been turnover prone in his last two starts.
If star linebacker Scooby Wright III can return—more on him later—then the Arizona defense will have a huge boost in the pass rush. Rosen has shown he can be excellent at picking apart a defense when he gets in a rhythm. Look for Arizona to dial different things up that will prevent that from happening in Tucson.
Take advantage of every UCLA miscue
Arizona might be an underdog, but it's a home underdog. With the College GameDay buzz and the nationally televised slot, the atmosphere should be electric, and the Wildcats will look to feed off of that.
UCLA is a veteran team with an 18-year-old playing in its most important position. The Bruins are balanced and strong on both sides of the ball, but mistakes will most likely be made by the visitors, considering this is a road conference opener.
In addition to some of the turnover issues of the last two weeks, UCLA is also having a hard time with penalties. The Bruins are ranked No. 114 nationally in penalty yards through the first three games of the season. So whenever the favorite shoots itself in the foot, Arizona needs to fire some rounds of its own and capitalize on the momentum.
UCLA Players to Watch
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QB Josh Rosen
How will Rosen bounce back from his first less-than-stellar performance of his college career? He won't get an easy nonconference test to work out the kinks after the comeback victory over BYU—it's straight into the heat of a road game against Arizona.
After completing 80 percent of his passes in a masterful debut against Virginia, Rosen fired at a 52.9 percent clip against UNLV and then 47.8 percent against BYU.
If Rosen can find that groove against a banged-up and relatively untested defense, he could rebound in a big way this weekend. How he handles the pressure of following up a bad game and a tough atmosphere will be key for the Bruins here.
RB Paul Perkins
With Rosen faltering against BYU, the Bruins turned to Perkins out of the backfield. After his 219-yard performance against the Cougars, the defending Pac-12 rushing champion made it clear that he can be the focal point of an offense that has the spotlight on its quarterback.
"I definitely want the load back there," Perkins told Chris Foster of the Los Angeles Times.
Before the big night against UCLA, Perkins had 151 yards and three touchdowns against UNLV when the passing game wasn't so sharp. The Bruins will definitely call on Perkins time and time again in their Pac-12 opener.
CB Ishmael Adams
While Moreau is out for UCLA, the Bruins have picked up another cornerback in Ishmael Adams. The senior was reinstated to the team this week, per Foster, after the Los Angeles County district attorney declined to press felony robbery charges from an August incident.
Adams, a former starter and first-team All-Pac-12 player, could get a boost in playing time immediately due to Moreau's injury. UCLA head coach Mora didn't say how much the reinstated corner would play Saturday.
"There is a difference between being in shape and being in football shape," Mora said, per Foster. "We’ll evaluate through the week and we’ll see as we get closer to the game where he is mentally and physically."
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Arizona Players to Watch
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LB Scooby Wright III
After missing the Wildcats' last two games with torn meniscus and a subsequent surgery, star linebacker Scooby Wright III could be ready to play Saturday against UCLA. Wright is expected to practice this week for Arizona.
"The biggest thing would be from the medical staff, is he 100 percent cleared and ready to go?" Arizona head coach Rich Rodriguez said, per ESPN.com. "It's not only from an injury standpoint, but is he back to where he can be effective and play at the level he's used to playing at? For any player, you want that to be the case before he comes back, if he can be the player he was before the injury."
The player Wright was before the injury was one of the best in the country, as he swept the major national defensive awards while leading the FBS in tackles for loss. If Wright can play, the Arizona defense will receive a boost from one of the game's best playmakers.
WRs Samajie Grant and Cayleb Jones
Both Samajie Grant and Cayleb Jones, Arizona's top two receivers from a season ago, left the Northern Arizona game last week with minor injuries. However, they should play this week, according to Ryan Finley of Tucson.com.
The dynamic duo has gotten off to a somewhat slow start this season. The 6'3" Jones and the speedy slot man Grant only have two touchdowns between them through three games—and they combined for 15 last season.
On the big stage, look for Grant and Jones to step up and go for big games against the UCLA secondary. Anu Solomon has more weapons than just these two stars, but they have proved to be exceptional when they get going with him in the passing game.
CB Cam Denson
Arizona cornerback Cam Denson had one of the weirdest games possible last week against Northern Arizona. He had a personal foul penalty and allowed a touchdown, but he also recorded a sack and an interception for the Wildcats.
"It was an up-and-down game," Denson said, per Finley. "At the beginning of the game, I gave up the touchdown, but I had to play better for my brothers and just go out there and play my game. I just wanted to show what I can do out there."
Arizona is going to need to see more of the good Cam Denson on Saturday night against Arizona. He can make big plays happen for this banged-up defense, but it's a matter of consistency.
What They're Saying
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UCLA
Head coach Jim Mora on overcoming the loss of two defensive starters to injury, per Foster:
"Losing those two is pretty significant. Unfortunately, it’s part of the game. You can’t go, ‘Woe is me.’ The next guy has to step up. You have to take that mindset because you never get through a season unscathed.
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Running back Nate Starks on quarterback Josh Rosen, per the Associated Press (via FOX Sports):
"He's not worried about the mistakes. It's all about moving on to the next game. We're getting ready for Arizona, and that's the main goal.
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Wide receiver Jordan Payton on entering the Pac-12 season, per Foster:
"You want to make sure you have all your T's crossed and your I's dotted by the time you get to the Pac-12 because it's so tough. You build and mature and win.
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Arizona
Head coach Rich Rodriguez on the hype surrounding this week's game, per the program's website:
"We have a lot of things to learn and get better from and certainly our guys know how big this one is. All the games are big, as I told the team, but you can sense or feel the big-game feel on campus this week, whether I want to preach or not, it is going to be there. GameDay is coming to town, there will be a lot of buzz about it all week. It is a division game against a highly ranked and undefeated team. Our guys came to Arizona to play in these big games and they get a chance to do it on Saturday.
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Tight end Josh Kern on "getting over the hump" by beating UCLA:
"I don’t know if I would necessarily say that. They are always a good team, it is always a tough game. It is always a fun experience, whether here or there, the environment is always pretty hostile. It is going to be a good game.
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Defensive end Sani Fuimaono on the last time Arizona beat UCLA, back in 2011:
"It was one of the crazier games I have been a part of. There was a brawl in the middle of the game, and the streaker. A lot of things happened during that game. I think that as a football program we haven't beaten UCLA since then and I think this week it is going to be very critical for us to make a statement.
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Prediction
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Rich Rodriguez hasn't beaten Jim Mora's UCLA teams, losing three straight in completely different fashions. In 2012, the Bruins spanked the Wildcats, 66-10. In 2013, Myles Jack took over on both sides of the ball in a 31-26 UCLA win. Last year, Arizona had an awful offensive performance in a 17-7 loss.
That paltry seven-point output has to sting the offensive-minded Rodriguez, who no doubt has been focused on this rematch with UCLA ever since the final whistle of Arizona's rout over Northern Arizona. He'll be looking for revenge, along with Solomon, Wilson and the rest of the explosive Wildcat attack.
UCLA isn't exactly firing on all cylinders heading into this game, but the Bruins overcame some real adversity and came from behind to put away BYU at home. Mora's team has a great amount of punch coming out of the backfield, and it can use that to protect Rosen in his first big road start.
Still, the loss of Moreau is concerning for UCLA, especially after a near-upset loss to BYU. This Arizona offense is on fire right now, even though it hasn't been tested against a Power Five opponent.
Assuming Wright is able to play and make some sort of impact in Arizona's pass rush, I personally pick the Wildcats to pull off the upset in a fantastic game. The home-field advantage should be immense whenever Rosen and the UCLA offense has the ball, and I imagine Rodriguez has some offensive tricks ready to pull for his first win over Mora.
Prediction: Arizona 35, UCLA 31
Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports. Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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