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The Highest Risk/Reward Rookies Who Are Paying Off So Far This Season

Jaime OppenheimSep 22, 2015

In the ultracompetitive NFL, taking calculated risks in the draft is no longer merely a necessity for decision-makers. It is an art form.

Talent is at such a demand that general managers and head coaches aren't afforded the luxury of viewing red flags as a reason to stay away from a player. Instead, it's an invitation to get a promising prospect at a bargain price and an opportunity to come up with a creative way to get the most out of a talented football player.

Not all gambles are created equally. Sometimes, a general manager will roll the dice on a prospect with character concerns. Other times, teams will simply reach for a player they feel is undervalued and don't want to let get away.

Risky picks make great debate fodder in the weeks following the NFL draft, but those discussions tend to fade away as the season approaches and the players blend in with their teams.

Two weeks into the NFL season, we're taking a look at some of the high-risk, high-reward rookies who are paying immediate dividends for their teams. Click ahead to see who's making the grade.

Marcus Peters, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

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Few rookies have gotten off to a louder start through two weeks than Marcus Peters. He introduced himself to the NFL by picking off a Brian Hoyer pass on his very first snap from scrimmage.

For an encore in Week 2, Peters picked off a Peyton Manning pass and returned it 55 yards for a touchdown. 

There's never been any questions about Peters' ability to cover receivers, but there have been questions about his maturity. He was dismissed from Washington's football team as a junior after repeatedly butting heads with the coaching staff.

For some NFL teams, that would be enough to remove a player from their draft board. Not Kansas City. They took Peters with the 18th pick, and they look to be well on the way to reaping the benefits. 

Matt Jones, RB, Washington Redskins

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Jones raised a few eyebrows when he declared for the draft last December after the University of Florida fired head coach Will Muschamp. Although talented, Jones' college career was unheralded, and he stood to improve his draft stock with a strong showing as a senior.

Bleacher Report's Matt Miller ranked Jones—viewed predominantly as a short-yardage specialist—as the 16th-best running back in the class and projected a team to take him on Day 3.

Jay Gruden and the Washington Redskins had other plans. They picked up the 235-pound Jones with the 31st pick in the third round, ahead of several backs ranked higher on experts' draft boards.

The gamble has paid off nicely. Through two weeks, Jones has run for 151 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries, making him a favorite of both Washington fans and fantasy football owners alike.

Jones' 39-yard touchdown run against St. Louis in Week 2 should serve as sufficient evidence that his game is a little more diverse than some gave him credit for.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans

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Despite his prodigious talent, Marcus Mariota was perhaps the riskiest pick in the entire 2015 draft. 

The 2014 Heisman Trophy winner began the draft process with a sterling resume and as much physical ability as anyone could want from a quarterback. The problem, however, was coming from Oregon, no one knew how Mariota would handle pro-style concepts.

Ruston Webster and Ken Whisenhunt drafted him second overall anyway, despite already having a promising young quarterback in Zach Mettenberger on the roster and knowing full well that it would be almost impossible for them to keep their jobs if Mariota flopped.

Webster and Whisenhunt are probably at ease through the first two weeks of the season. Although shaky in Week 2, Mariota has looked every bit like a franchise quarterback. He's thrown six touchdowns and zero interceptions while posting a perfect quarterback rating in Week 1.

Not bad for someone who never called a play in a huddle in college. 

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Mitch Morse, C, Kansas City Chiefs

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Bleacher Report's Miller had Mitch Morse ranked as the 15th-best tackle and the 165th-best prospect in the 2015 draft. It was therefore something of a surprise when the Kansas City Chiefs took the Missouri standout with the 18th pick in the second round.

The Chiefs drafted Morse with the intention of moving him inside to center, a position he hadn't played since 2012. Morse went out and won the starting job in training camp, then earned the second-highest Week 1 grade from Pro Football Focus of any center.

Between Peters and Morse, Kansas City is certainly making the most of its 2015 draft class. 

Ali Marpet, C, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Hobart and William Smith Colleges are private liberal arts schools in upstate New York. According to their website, they currently enroll 2,396 students.

It is not a place where you'd expect to find a future NFL player, let alone someone capable of starting as a rookie.

Drafting anyone from Hobart—or any other Division III school—is a risk. Using a second-round pick on such a player is an outright gamble.

Ali Marpet was of course viewed as being massively talented, but it was impossible to know how he'd fare against NFL talent after dominating at the Division III level.

Luckily for the Bucs, Marpet appears to be handling NFL talent just fine. After winning the starting center job in training camp, Marpet went out and earned a positive grade from Pro Football Focus in his first career start.

Karlos Williams, RB, Buffalo Bills

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It's difficult to class a fifth-round selection as a risky pick, but Karlos Williams is a special case.

Williams earned significant hype heading into the 2014 college season, but his draft stock took a hit after losing his job to freshman Dalvin Cook. His shaky on-field performance, coupled with questions about his character, saw Williams last until the 155th pick in the draft.

That slide has turned out to be a boon for the Buffalo Bills. Williams came out of a crowded backfield competition in training camp as the primary backup for starter LeSean McCoy. He led the Bills in rushing in their Week 1 win over Indianapolis and added a touchdown in Week 2 against New England.

Not bad for a fifth-round pick.

Williams always had feature-back talent. It's just been a question of whether he would make good on that promise. He's on track to do just that in the early stages of his NFL career. 

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