Alabama vs. Ole Miss Complete Game Preview
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — For the 25th time during the Nick Saban era, ESPN’s College GameDay will broadcast from the site of a University of Alabama football game. And like usual, it’s a big game.
Ole Miss, ranked No. 15 in the latest Associated Press Top 25 Poll, was the only team to beat Alabama during the regular season last year, knocking the Crimson Tide from their No. 1 ranking.
However, this year the SEC West matchup will be played at No. 2 Alabama, where Saban has never lost a league home opener (8-0).
Alabama is 25-1 against Ole Miss as the home team, including 12 straight wins, and since 2007, is 4-2 with College GameDay in Tuscaloosa. The wins were against Penn State (2010), LSU (2013), Mississippi State (2014) and Auburn (2014). The losses were to Georgia (2007) and LSU in (2011).
Needless to say, Alabama knows a few things about playing in big games.
Here’s everything you need to know:
Date: Saturday, September 19
Time: 8:15 p.m. CT
Place: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa
TV: ESPN
Radio: Crimson Tide Sports Network, Ole Miss IMG Network, Westwood One, Sirius 115, XM 191
Spread: Alabama -7, according to OddsShark.com.
Alabama's Keys to Victory
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Dominate the lines of scrimmage
Alabama has a significant size advantage against Ole Miss, especially on the lines, and it only makes sense that the Crimson Tide will try to wear the Rebels down. The offense is averaging 74 plays a game, which is actually more than Ole Miss (68).
The game plan will likely include a heavy dose of running back Derrick Henry, especially as the game progresses. Last year, he had 17 carries for 37 yards against the Rebels, but T.J. Yeldon had 20 for 123.
On the flip side, Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze called Alabama’s defensive front seven "as talented as I have ever seen. They are as deep and talented as you can imagine.” This could be a statement game for the group.
Attack defensively
The team that gets the other on its heels will have a huge advantage, and the Alabama defense will do everything it can to frustrate the Ole Miss quarterbacks. While that might include some different blitzes and personnel packages when possible, the line got good push the first two games and batted down six passes.
“Really, we just try to affect the QB as much as we can,” defensive lineman A’Shawn Robinson said. “Having him not see the ball go into the receiver’s hands is good for us because that’s throwing off his timing and stuff. I really don’t have a number or anything exact, we just try to go out there and do what we can.”
Turnovers
What was a disadvantage the last couple of years could be a big plus for the Crimson Tide. Last week, the defense notched four turnovers for first time since the 2012 Arkansas game, including three fumble recoveries. It only recovered nine fumbles last season.
In 2014, the Crimson Tide finished with a minus-two turnover ratio. So far it's plus-three.
“We have to just keep attacking the ball,” safety Geno Matias-Smith said. “That's been our motto the whole offseason. The ball, the ball, the ball."
Ole Miss Keys to Victory
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Explosive plays
Ole Miss is averaging 9.33 yards per offensive play, and it leads the nation in scoring.
The Rebels top the SEC in scoring, total offense, red-zone offense, rushing offense, pass efficiency, third-down conversion, fourth-down conversions and first downs. However, they haven’t played an SEC team yet, having crushed UT Martin and Fresno State.
Last year, Ole Miss had just four explosive plays against Alabama, but three of them resulted in or led to touchdowns.
Don’t become one-dimensional
Alabama’s defense is geared toward stopping the run and then going after the quarterback. Ole Miss is better at playing ball control with its passing game. But Jaylen Walton is averaging 11.4 yards per carry, and Eugene Brazley is right behind him at 10. 2.
Last year against Alabama, Walton had 11 attempts for 39 yards, with his longest carry being nine yards. However, with this game being played at Bryant-Denny Stadium, the Rebels need to do everything they can to relieve the pressure off Kelly, who will have to deal with the crowd noise.
Match last year’s intensity
One of the impressive aspects of the Ole Miss defense in last year’s game was its tenacious play, the way everyone swarmed to the ball and kept the receivers from breaking into open field. It’s a big reason why Amari Cooper had his six-game streak of 100-plus yards snapped as he finished with nine receptions for 91 yards.
Obviously the Rebels had the advantage of playing at home, but this is their first big game of the season, and Ole Miss is eager to show the 2014 win wasn’t a fluke.
Alabama Players to Watch
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Running backs Derrick Henry/Kenyan Drake
Alabama’s running back tandem has lived up to expectations, combining for 360 rushing yards and 151 receiving yards so far. Henry leads the nation in rushing touchdowns with six, and Saban has a history of riding his top tailback in big games like these.
“He’s a great athlete,” Henry said about opposing defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche. “Very physical, very big and very fast. He has a real impact for their defense. It will be fun playing against him Saturday.”
As for Drake, he’s facing the team he suffered the broken leg and dislocated ankle against last season. Motivation won’t be an issue.
Alabama’s right tackle
Dominick Jackson struggled in pass protection last week against Middle Tennessee, and Alabama and Brandon Greene worked at right tackle during at least part of Monday’s practice. Another option could be to slide left guard Ross Pierschbacher to right tackle. Jackson’s forte is run blocking, but the Ole Miss defense is predicated on speed.
“Ole Miss’ defense is very, very good,” Saban said. “Their front is very active. They’re very quick, and I think it’s going to be a challenge for us because we did not pass protect real well last week. We had issues with speed pressures in the first game. We’re going to have to do a much better job in that regard against what it probably the best front we’ve played to this point, no doubt.”
Quarterback Jake Coker
In two games, the senior quarterback has completed 30 of 47 passes for 427 yards, two touchdowns and one interception on a bomb. His completion percentage is 63.8, and his 149.9 passer-efficiency rating of 149.9 is 10th in the SEC
"We played a pretty good team in Week 1 as well, and he did all right,” senior center Ryan Kelly said. “He's not a guy who is affected by what's going to happen, who we're going to be playing. It's just him out there. Doesn't matter what the team is. He's going to be studying his playbook, getting the team ready and doing the best he can.
"That's just the kind of guy he is. That's the self-pride he has and what he does every day. I don't expect anything less from him, of Cooper [Bateman] or any quarterback or anybody that's going to be in that game."
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Ole Miss Players to Watch
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Quarterback Chad Kelly
The controversial quarterback has been stellar so far, completing 29 of 40 passes for 557 yards, with six touchdowns and one interception. The former Clemson player, who was kicked off the team by Dabo Swinney, will be making his first road start in the SEC. Coach Freeze said on Monday:
"I assure you I am trying to keep him grounded. I do think that Chad is very grounded right now. The national media will tend to say things that, in my opinion, they shouldn't say when they get a microphone. Chad has been called a ticking time bomb three or four times. I want to ask those guys if they have kids when I hear this. You know, he might be a ticking time bomb, but thus far he has not been. Chad seems to be really, really grounded. He is extremely hungry to be coached and do well. So, yes, it is always a concern of mine but so far I am confident he has his head in the right place.
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The Ole Miss offensive tackles
Laremy Tunsil’s status remains in doubt as the school continues to hold him out for what Freeze called "precautionary reasons” due to an ongoing NCAA investigation into his eligibility. Senior Fahn Cooper (6’5”, 306 lbs) will slide over and start in his place at left tackle if necessary, with redshirt freshman Sean Rawlings (6’5”, 280 lbs) inserted into the starting lineup at right tackle.
Middle Linebacker C.J. Johnson
The converted defensive lineman only made two tackles against Ball State, but he made an interception in the red zone and returned it 70 yards. Johnson is listed as 6’2,” 225 pounds, which means he’s smaller than Alabama running back Derrick Henry (6’3”, 242 lbs).
What They're Saying
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Saban on Alabama’s SEC opener
“Ole Miss certainly has an outstanding team. They've got a lot of experience returning, like 18 starters or whatever. Obviously when you score over 74 points a game you've got a pretty dynamic offense in a lot of ways. They've got a lot of good players. They've got a great scheme. They do a really good job of executing.
"They play fast, and they're leading the nation in a lot of categories when it comes to offense. I think Chad Kelly has done a really good job for them. They've got a really good runner in No. 6 [Jaylen Walton]. They've got really good receivers. [Laquon] Treadwell is probably as good as anybody in the country. Really good receiving corps.
“Their defense, they've got seven starters back and one of the best defenses in the SEC. Giving up 12 points a game so far this year. They're one of the best defensive teams in our conference as well. This is a very, very good all-around team. Certainly going to be a challenging game for us, but we're looking forward to playing in the SEC, playing in our conference, the conference opener for us. If you're a great competitor, you love to play in games like this.”
Freeze on Alabama’s defense
"This defense that they have has a good chance of stopping just about anybody. I think that we are confident and like what we are doing. We haven't done it yet in an environment like Tuscaloosa where we cannot communicate. Everything is going to have to be solid. That changes us a little bit. We have to adapt to that this week in practice and make sure we can still be who we are in the way we communicate. I think we have the ability to certainly stress a defense a little bit if we can stay balanced. If you can't stay balanced then Alabama can absolutely stop you. ...
Their defense is not going to change a lot. You are going to get their mixture of odd and even fronts. They have guys that can two-gap you on one play and then get on the edge on the next play. Their back ends are going to keep you guessing on whether it is man or zone and they disguise it well. Alabama's defense has not changed a lot, and they probably don't need to. They are very good at what they do. You may see a new pattern or blitz every now and then, though.
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Prediction
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Prediction
Home-field advantage could be huge in this game, as might be the potential absence of Ole Miss left tackle Tunsil. One has to wonder how much the Rebels can run without him.
Bryant-Denny Stadium figures to have a fired-up crowd after last year’s loss, and Saban rarely loses revenge games. Alabama is hitting Ole Miss at the wrong time but still has too much going in its favor.
Prediction: Alabama 27, Ole Miss 23
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.
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