Ed Feng's Week 3 College Football Playoff Standings Predictions
How would the College Football Playoff committee rank teams this week? Which four teams would make the playoff?
We can use analytics to make an educated guess on the committee rankings. The AP poll provides a baseline for the Top 25 teams before the committee releases its first poll.
My algorithm then adjusts teams based on the most recent opponent and margin of victory. Teams that win keep their place or make a jump if they beat a higher ranked opponent. Teams that lose drop, but not as much if they lose to a highly ranked team. You get the idea.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Let's look at the three most interesting movers from Week 2.
| Rank | Team | Result |
| 1 | Ohio State | Won vs. Hawaii, 38-0 |
| 2 | Alabama | Won vs. Middle Tennessee State, 37-10 |
| 3 | Michigan State | Won vs. Oregon, 31-28 |
| 4 | TCU | Won vs. Stephen F. Austin, 70-7 |
| 5 | Baylor | Won vs. Lamar, 66-31 |
| 6 | USC | Won vs. Idaho, 59-9 |
| 7 | Notre Dame | Won at Virginia, 34-27 |
| 8 | Georgia | Won at Vanderbilt, 31-14 |
| 9 | Auburn | Won vs. Jacksonville State, 27-20 OT |
| 10 | Oregon | Lost at Michigan State, 31-28 |
| 11 | Florida State | Won vs. South Florida, 34-14 |
| 12 | LSU | Won at Mississippi State 21-19 |
| 13 | Clemson | Won vs. Appalachian State, 41-10 |
| 14 | UCLA | Won at UNLV, 37-3 |
| 15 | Georgia Tech | Won vs. Tulane, 65-10 |
| 16 | Oklahoma | Won at No. 23 Tennessee, 31-24 |
| 17 | Texas A&M | Won vs. Ball State, 56-23 |
| 18 | Ole Miss | Won vs. Fresno State, 73-21 |
| 19 | Boise State | Lost at BYU 35-24 |
| 20 | Missouri | Won at Arkansas State, 27-20 |
| 21 | Arizona | Won at Nevada, 44-20 |
| 22 | Utah | Won vs. Utah State, 24-14 |
| 23 | Wisconsin | Won vs. Miami (OH), 58-0 |
| 24 | BYU | Won vs. Boise State, 35-24 |
| 25 | Tennessee | Lost vs. No. 19 Oklahoma, 31-24 |
Spartans strengthen their case
College football is an injection of adrenaline each weekend. The short season makes every week count, and an out of conference game doesn't get bigger than a Top 10 matchup between Oregon and Michigan State.
In my preview, I predicted a slight edge for Michigan State. The Spartans won by three, but Oregon had its chances. In the first half, Oregon had a 4th-and-1 from the Michigan State 1-yard line. The Ducks got stuffed.
Late in the fourth quarter, Oregon quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. missed a wide open Byron Marshall for the go-ahead touchdown. The big win bumps Michigan State to third, jumping over TCU and Baylor, two programs feasting on cupcakes this weekend. Oregon drops to 10th. However, its strong performance on the road should leave a good impression with the playoff committee. If it wins the Pac-12, Oregon will likely rise back into the top four.
Sooners soar up the rankings
In the preseason, TCU and Baylor got all the Big 12 headlines as the top contenders. However, Oklahoma made the conference's first big statement with a road win at Tennessee. Sterling Shepard caught two critical touchdowns, one to send the game to overtime and another to give the Sooners a lead in the second overtime.
This wins moves Oklahoma from 19th to 16th in the committee rankings.
How are TCU and Baylor doing? TCU wasn't dominant in a Week 1 win at Minnesota. Baylor's defense has allowed 21 points to SMU and 31 points to FCS Lamar. Let's not forget about Oklahoma, which my preseason model had at 11th in the nation.
Auburn's struggles lead to slide
Auburn came into the season with high expectations. The program was ranked sixth in the preseason AP poll, and some even predicted it would make the playoff. However, a rank that high required a fair amount of faith. How will Jeremy Johnson do as the new QB? Could new coordinator Will Muschamp coax the defense to play up to its potential?
These issues shouldn't have mattered against FCS Jacksonville State. Auburn was a 39-point favorite to win the game. However, the team needed a late touchdown to force overtime before winning the game.
The game answered none of the questions about Johnson or Muschamp. Auburn's offense gained 401 yards at 5.7 yards per play. These numbers are fine if you're playing Alabama. They're terrible against an FCS foe. Auburn's defense allowed 438 yards at 4.9 yards per play. Again, this wouldn't raise an alarm against an SEC West team. It's downright embarrassing against Jacksonville State.
Auburn drops to ninth in the predicted rankings. Only its late win prevented a drop into the teens.
Ed Feng has a Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering from Stanford and runs the sports analytics site The Power Rank. You can find him on Twitter @thepowerrank.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
