Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cleveland Browns are notoriously slow starters, losing their last 10 season openers in a row and going 2-7-1 against the spread in the process. Cleveland shoots to end that drought when it visits New Jersey to take on the New York Jets Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium.

Point spread: The Jets opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 39.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.6-20.7 Jets

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland finished 7-9 in its first season under new head coach Mike Pettine last year, the first time the Browns didn't lose at least 11 games since 2007. Cleveland actually got to 7-4 last year, and led the AFC North, but lost its last five games, including a one-point decision to Indianapolis.

In the end, though, the Browns made some money last year, going 9-6-1 ATS, including 5-2-1 ATS on the road and 7-2-1 ATS as underdogs.

This year, the Brownies, at least for the moment, are going with veteran Josh McCown at quarterback, who despite his career record as a starter (17-32) has had some moments, including a 3-2 run with a 13-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the Bears two seasons ago.

Why the Jets can cover the spread

New York struggled through a lost season last year, then parted ways with Rex Ryan. The team replaced him with Todd Bowles, who put together a pretty good defense as coordinator at Arizona the last couple of seasons.

The Jets actually won two of their last three games last season and covered four of their last five, so perhaps they bring some momentum into this season. New York ranked third in the league in rushing last season at 143 yards per game, outrushed opponents by almost 50 yards per game and ranked ninth in time of possession. And those are usually good ways to win games and cover spreads in the NFL.

Over the offseason the Jets picked up wide receiver Brandon Marshall, who could team with Eric Decker to form a formidable receiving combo, and brought back cornerback Darrelle Revis. Quarterback Geno Smith is out after taking a punch in a locker room altercation a few weeks ago, but backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, he of 89 NFL starts, posted a 17-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio with Houston last year.

Smart pick

As is the case with most NFL games, the team that wins the ground game, holds the ball and commits fewer turnovers is most likely to win this game and cover this spread, and in this case that team appears to be the Jets.

Betting trends

The Browns are 3-12 straight up in their last 15 games on the road in September.

The Jets are 1-6 SU in their last seven games at home.

The Jets are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games against the AFC North.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.