NCAA Football Rankings 2015: Predicting the Top 25 After Week 2
Week 2 of the college football season featured an incredibly "Sluggish Saturday" for several teams inside the AP's Top 25.
Remember the SEC's impressive opening weekend and its record-breaking push into the poll earlier this week? That lost some of its luster with a miserable performance by one of its top teams, a crazy home loss by a preseason darling and a tough overtime loss to a ranked foe from an East favorite.
The eyebrow-raising games weren't just limited to the South, however, as a national-title contender avoided a road upset loss. Elsewhere, some late-night drama put the poll's lone Group of Five representative out in the cold.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
"If there’s anything to truly take away from a sloppy, comeback-charged, heartbreaking and downright bizarre Week 2, it’s that this small serving of unpredictability could be just a taste of the madness to come," Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer wrote. "This is just the start. It's just starting a little earlier than usual."
That madness should extend into the AP's Week 3 poll. Here is Bleacher Report's projection for what the Top 25 will look like Sunday after a weird Saturday of action:
| 1. Ohio State | 1 | 2-0 | Won 38-0 vs. Hawaii |
| 2. Alabama | 2 | 2-0 | Won 37-10 vs. MTSU |
| 3. TCU | 3 | 2-0 | Won 70-7 vs. Stephen F. Austin |
| 4. Michigan State | 5 | 2-0 | Won 31-28 vs. No. 7 Oregon |
| 5. Baylor | 4 | 2-0 | Won 66-31 vs. Lamar |
| 6. USC | 8 | 2-0 | Won 59-9 vs. Idaho |
| 7. Notre Dame | 9 | 2-0 | Won 34-27 at Virginia |
| 8. Georgia | 10 | 2-0 | Won 31-14 at Vanderbilt |
| 9. Florida State | 11 | 2-0 | Won 34-14 vs. USF |
| 10. Clemson | 12 | 2-0 | Won 41-10 vs. Appalachian State |
| 11. UCLA | 13 | 2-0 | Won 37-3 at UNLV |
| 12. Oregon | 7 | 1-1 | Lost 31-28 at No. 5 Michigan State |
| 13. LSU | 14 | 1-0 | Won 21-19 at No. 25 Mississippi State |
| 14. Georgia Tech | 15 | 2-0 | Won 65-10 vs. Tulane |
| 15. Texas A&M | 16 | 2-0 | Won 56-23 vs. Ball State |
| 16. Ole Miss | 17 | 2-0 | Won 73-21 vs. Fresno State |
| 17. Oklahoma | 19 | 2-0 | Won 31-24 (2OT) at No. 23 Tennessee |
| 18. BYU | NR | 2-0 | Won 35-24 vs. No. 20 Boise State |
| 19. Arizona | 22 | 2-0 | Won 44-20 at Nevada |
| 20. Auburn | 6 | 2-0 | Won 27-20 (OT) vs. Jacksonville State |
| 21. Missouri | 21 | 2-0 | Won 27-20 vs. Arkansas State |
| 22. Utah | 24 | 2-0 | Won 24-14 vs. Utah State |
| 23. Northwestern | NR | 2-0 | Won 41-0 vs. Eastern Illinois |
| 24. Wisconsin | NR | 1-1 | Won 58-0 vs. Miami (Ohio) |
| 25. West Virginia | NR | 2-0 | Won 41-17 vs. Liberty |
Moving up
Michigan State
In the season's first true matchup of playoff contenders, Michigan State answered the call in a big way Saturday night by holding off Oregon at home.
Michigan State's defense lived up to its elite credentials against the high-powered Ducks offense. The Spartans forced two interceptions from quarterback Vernon Adams and stopped Oregon on fourth down on four separate occasions.
"This is already a top-five team, and now it has banked arguably the best win in the country in this early season," Brian Bennett of ESPN.com wrote. "This should keep the Spartans squarely in the playoff conversation, and even a loss at Ohio State won't necessarily be fatal."
With Baylor getting off to another slow defensive start Saturday—this time against FCS opponent Lamar—the Spartans should be in prime position to move up in the AP poll. With TCU smashing its lower-division foe by 63 points, Michigan State might not leap into the top three, but it should slide to at least No. 4.
BYU
Who wants some more "Mangum Magic?"
BYU's last-minute upset victory over Boise State—one that looked even more impressive on the scoreboard thanks to a late pick-six—featured another desperation heave from true freshman quarterback Tanner Mangum. Taysom Hill's replacement now has back-to-back game-winning passes on his resume after defeating Nebraska last weekend.
The Cougars have now beaten a team that was receiving votes in the preseason poll and the best Group of Five bet in the race for the New Year's Six Bowls. Much like Texas A&M from last weekend, expect BYU to make a good-sized jump into the Top 25 this week. I have them slotted just above Arizona, who has recorded two decent wins over Group of Five schools to start the year.
Staying in the rankings, though, will be a different story. BYU must travel to unbeaten UCLA and then Michigan in the next two weeks. Maybe the magic hasn't run out yet for the Cougars.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is set to receive an extra spot or two in the AP poll this week after rallying from an early 17-0 hole to knock off Tennessee at an extremely loud Neyland Stadium.
One of the biggest knocks on Oklahoma heading into the 2015 season—especially after such a disappointing record last year—was the Sooners defense. But after Tennessee's early run of points, Oklahoma clamped down and had one of its best performances on that side of the ball in years.
The Sooners offense also came alive in the second half on Rocky Top, with Baker Mayfield finding Samaje Perine and an incredible Sterling Shepard in the comeback victory. Oklahoma's new Air Raid attack still has some bugs to work out, but it showed incredible resolve to rally away from home Saturday night.
Unfortunately for Oklahoma, only the team directly ahead of it in the Week 2 poll fell Saturday, with several higher-ranked teams posting big-time routs against overmatched opponents. However, the Sooners should climb some and have a chance to pass former No. 6 squad Auburn this week after their huge victory.
Northwestern, Wisconsin and West Virginia
The final three teams in this predicted Top 25, by virtue of several departures, consist of a pair of Big Ten teams and a Big 12 riser.
Northwestern obliterated FCS opponent Eastern Illinois by a score of 41-0 on Saturday, and the Wildcats are looking like a much stronger team than expected early in the season. I have Northwestern jumping Wisconsin for a higher spot in the poll thanks to an unbeaten record and a home win against a formerly ranked team.
Wisconsin slides into No. 24 after crushing a bad Miami (Ohio) squad at home Saturday. The Badgers offense lit up the scoreboard without star running back Corey Clement, who sat out with an injury, and the defense bounced back from the Alabama loss with four turnovers in the shutout.
West Virginia didn't beat FCS team Liberty as bad as it did defending Sun Belt champion Georgia Southern. However, the Mountaineers still eased past the Flames, 41-17, at home. To me, WVU has been more impressive through the first two weekends than Arizona State and Oklahoma State, who received a higher number of votes last week. This team could disrupt things in the Big 12.
Moving down
Auburn
Things almost reached full nuclear meltdown mode on the Plains this weekend as No. 6 Auburn had to come back in order to beat in-state FCS foe Jacksonville State.
The Tigers won, 27-20, in overtime to avoid what would've been a worse upset loss by line than the famous Appalachian State victory over Michigan in 2007, per @RedditCFB on Twitter.
The fallout of Auburn's narrow win over the Gamecocks should heavily affect its position in the AP poll. But it's extremely hard to pinpoint exactly how much the Tigers will fall because this was such a rare occurrence—a Top-10 team almost falling to an FCS team.
Auburn may not fall as far as No. 20, but it should drop down below some of the other 2-0 teams who have done nothing but impress in the first two weeks of the season. Off-target quarterback Jeremy Johnson and the Tigers have time to bounce back, but improvement needs to happen fast.
Oregon
Oregon had a chance to pull off the late comeback in East Lansing on Saturday night, but like Vernon Adams' final pass, the attempt fell just short.
"[A] 31-28 loss to the fifth-ranked Spartans (2-0), who sought a measure of revenge after falling to the Ducks one year ago, put the brakes on Oregon's recent history of high-flying success by showing Oregon's offensive and defensive deficiencies in a tight, back-and-forth game that lived up to its prime-time billing," Andrew Greif of the Oregonian wrote.
The Ducks' close loss away from home shouldn't damage their standing in the polls too much. After all, Michigan State only fell from No. 7 to No. 13 after its 19-point loss to Oregon in Eugene last season, according to College Poll Archive.
With LSU narrowly avoiding a road loss at Mississippi State at the No. 13 spot, putting Oregon right ahead of the Bayou Bengals looks like the best call. The Ducks fall slightly less than what the Spartans did last season in their situation.
Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi State
The SEC probably expected to lose at least one team in the Top 25 this weekend with Mississippi State facing LSU in Starkville. But three should be on the outside looking in after a rough Saturday for the league.
Arkansas made the wrong kind of history Saturday in a 16-12 loss to Toledo. According to ESPN's Mark Schlabach, Arkansas became the first FBS team to have at least 500 yards of offense, no more than one turnover and 12 or fewer points. Yikes.
Tennessee won't take as big of a hit with the voters as Arkansas after its home loss to Oklahoma. However, the Volunteers' blown lead as the No. 23 team in the country make them easy calls to fall out of the Top 25 this weekend.
Finally, Mississippi State will leave the Top 25 just as quickly as it arrived. The No. 25 Bulldogs showed Saturday night against LSU that they have a good chance to be back before season's end, but they've got an uphill climb in a crowded division.
Boise State
If Boise State would have finished off BYU away from home Saturday night, its chances of going undefeated would have increased exponentially.
The Broncos' two toughest matchups of the season appeared to be in their first two weeks. But after a narrow win over Washington and a loss to BYU, Boise State doesn't have the Group of Five bid to the New Year's Six bowls on lockdown anymore.
Quarterback Ryan Finley threw three interceptions for Boise State in the loss to BYU, including two in the fourth quarter. One of them led to a one-score game, while the other one was returned for a game-sealing Cougars touchdown.
Now Boise's road game at Virginia doesn't look like a guaranteed win—especially after the Cavaliers' close loss to Top-10 team Notre Dame on Saturday. It may be a while before we see the Broncos back in the Top 25.
Worth noting
There goes the 10: After putting a record 10 teams in the Top 25 last week, the SEC should lose at least three of those teams heading into Week 3. That number was never going to last, but dropping down to seven wasn't quite on the cards.
#TalkinBoutTheNoles: Florida State's record of 34 straight weeks in the Top 10 came to an end last week. However, Auburn's disappointing performance and Oregon's loss to Michigan State will most likely put the Seminoles back into that range Sunday.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
