UFC 191 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for Johnson vs. Dodson 2
More than two years after their spectacular showdown, Demetrious Johnson and John Dodson will be thrown back into the Octagon on Saturday night at UFC 191 in Las Vegas to determine the flyweight champion.
In that January 2013 showdown, Johnson was knocked to the mat twice but was still able to fight back in the later rounds to earn a unanimous-decision win and retain the title.
Even though that first bout was so close—Johnson did win all the scorecards, but two judges scored it 48-47—oddsmakers clearly give the edge to the champion this time around. Odds Shark lists Johnson as a plus-550 favorite to defeat Dodson.
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Both fighters enter this matchup on fire. Dodson has won his last three fights, including two by stoppage. Johnson is riding an eight-fight winning streak, ending his last two fights by submission. Neither star has ever lost a fight via stoppage, all but ensuring this will be another long, back-and-forth battle.
| UFC Flyweight Championship: Demetrious Johnson (c) vs. John Dodson | Johnson via Unanimous Decision |
| Heavyweight: Andrei Arlovski vs. Frank Mir | Mir via 2nd-Round TKO (Punches) |
| Light Heavyweight: Anthony Johnson vs. Jimi Manuwa | Johnson via 2nd-Round TKO (Punches) |
| Light Heavyweight: Jan Blachowicz vs. Corey Anderson | Anderson via Unanimous Decision |
| Women's Strawweight: Paige VanZant vs. Alex Chambers | VanZant via Split Decision |
| Lightweight: Ross Pearson vs. Paul Felder | Felder via 1st-Round KO (Punches) |
| Bantamweight: Francisco Rivera vs. John Lineker | River via 2nd-Round KO (Punches) |
| Women's Bantamweight: Jessica Andrade vs. Raquel Pennington | Andrade via 1st-Round Submission |
| Featherweight: Clay Collard vs. Tiago Trator | Trator via Split Decision |
| Middleweight: Joe Riggs vs. Ron Stallings | Stallings via 2nd-Round TKO (Punches) |
| Lightweight: Joaquim Silva vs. Nazareno Malegarie | Silva via Split Decision |
Keys to Johnson vs. Dodson Fight
After previously going through a 25-minute war, Johnson and Dodson aren't going to be throwing any new wrinkles into the game plan. Saturday night will be about two elite fighters doing what they do best, with the better man getting his hand raised.
One big story to watch in this fight is Dodson's stamina and agility. He underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL in July 2014, which is why he's only been in the Octagon three times in 32 months since losing to Johnson.
Dodson was pushed to the three-round limit in his last fight against Zach Makovsky at UFC 187, but Johnson is operating at a different level in the stamina department.
Mighty Mouse recovered from being dropped with punches twice against Dodson to not only take the fight into the fifth round, but win the decision.
Connor Ruebusch of Sherdog wrote in his preview of the event that Johnson has grown into one of the best all-around fighters in the sport:
"The champion bolsters this striking arsenal with the finest phase-shifting in the sport. He has become a master of forcing opponents to adjust to one side of his game, only to switch gears suddenly and without warning, going right from high kicks to double-legs and from elbows to armbars. Johnson’s submission grappling has earned some deserved praise lately, but the clinch is where he has really found a home since making the move to 125 pounds...
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Both fighters excel in the striking game, though Dodson's style is built more on throwing everything at an opponent while Johnson is more precise. The biggest difference comes in the clinch and fighting for takedowns, with the champion holding a huge edge:
| 3.46 | Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.26 |
| 53.03% | Significant Strike Accuracy | 35.4% |
| 1.76 | Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 3.37 |
| 3.74 | Takedown Average | 1.12 |
| 55.56% | Takedown Accuracy | 40% |
| 65.66% | Takedown Defense | 88.89% |
That pattern fits with the way things played out in their first battle. Dodson was a superior striker early, throwing all he could at Johnson, but it ultimately turned into a battle of stamina, mindset and precision.
No one else in the flyweight division operates on Johnson's level in those three categories. Dodson understands what makes him successful—speed and counterpunching—but tends to get in trouble when he gets too eager to make things happen.
Dodson also needs to keep attacking when there is an opening. He falls into patterns of throwing one big punch before stepping back, almost as if to let an opponent get his bearings before trying to attack again.
That kind of thing can work against lower-tier fighters like Makovsky and John Moraga, but it won't fly against Johnson.
Prediction
Anytime a strong puncher gets into a fight, he has a chance to win because all it takes is one shot to drop someone.
Dodson can take what he learned from the first showdown with Johnson, apply it to this battle and have a better understanding of how to finish him.
However, as this fight seems destined to go at least four rounds, Johnson's ability to stay in first gear into the 20-25-minute mark will be the crucial difference. He can take whatever fury Dodson unleashes in the early going before unleashing his unique blend of wrestling and striking precision.
Johnson isn't infallible as a fighter, but his current run of success in UFC puts him in the elite category with the likes of Jose Aldo and Chris Weidman. It takes a special opponent to knock that kind of fighter off his perch.
Even though Dodson is excellent in many areas, he's not at Johnson's level. Like most movie sequels, this fight will follow the same script as the original.
Johnson wins via unanimous decision.
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