'Over-Under' Predictions for Every NBA Team's Final 2026-27 Record
We've reached the point in the NBA offseason where attention shifts from tracking transactions to assessing how all those moves might change the balance of power in the league.
It's already clear that lottery reform feels different this time around.
The overs are all more tempting than they should be, but maybe that's based on how things used to work. Do oddsmakers wrongly think new lottery odds will create parity, suppress tanking and make it so teams you'd normally pick to win 50 games fall closer to 45? Is it even possible for anyone to finish with a win total in the teens anymore?
It's very difficult to predict how clubs will behave when they no longer have an incentive to lose games late in the year. What happens when the pushovers actually push back in March and April?
Will the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder both crack 60 wins? Will lottery reform eliminate tanking and ensure nobody loses 60?
Let's dive in and find out.
Atlanta Hawks: Under 43.5 Wins
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Marginally more talented and featuring key young players who could still take steps forward, the Atlanta Hawks are a perfect test case for how the new lottery rules could affect competitive balance.
Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Ryan Nembhard and even rookie Kingston Flemings bring added depth to a roster that won 46 games last season.
Playoff struggles should have motivated Jalen Johnson to deepen his bag, Dyson Daniels can't possibly shoot 18.8 percent from three again, and Onyeka Okongwu's new spacing dimension has him on a path toward fringe stardom.
All those positives still count, but so does a lottery system that will make a late-season run like the one Atlanta enjoyed last year much tougher. Many of the wins during the Hawks' 18-2 stretch from Feb. 22 to April 3 came against Brooklyn, Washington, Milwaukee, Memphis and others who'd completely packed it in.
It won't be quite so easy to fatten up this time around, which makes the Hawks feel more like a 42-win team than one capable of hitting 44.
Boston Celtics: Over 50.5 Wins
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If Jaylen Brown's absence is a problem, it'll matter most in the playoffs. We don't care about that here.
A Boston Celtics team that won 56 games while posting the point differential of a 60-win squad last season should be expected to do at least that well if the only change were swapping a healthy Jayson Tatum into Brown's vacated role. An All-NBA nod was a big deal for Brown; it's the expectation for Tatum—even coming off injury.
When you factor in what the Celtics should get from new additions Paul George and Mitchell Robinson and note how head coach Joe Mazzulla ensures maximum buy-in at all times, it gets even easier to see them pushing past the 51 wins they'd need to hit their over.
Don't forget the likelihood that Derrick White remembers how to shoot after going cold all last season. Also, let's make sure to account for organic growth from Boston's youngsters. Jordan Walsh, Hugo Gonzalez, Baylor Scheierman and Ron Harper Jr. could all be better than they were in 2025-26.
Brooklyn Nets: Under 24.5 Wins
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The Brooklyn Nets will give a significant share of their playmaking responsibilities to new addition Julius Randle and rookie guard Mikel Brown Jr., neither of whom seems poised for success.
Randle was salary-dumped from the Minnesota Timberwolves largely because he wasn't good enough as a second option behind Anthony Edwards. Brown is bound to struggle as professional defenses key in on him. Though the Nets got good deals on role players like Keon Ellis (two years, $18 million), Day'Ron Sharpe (two years, $20 million) and Josh Minott (two years, $9 million), the supporting cast here is underwhelming.
Maybe the best way to frame it: Brooklyn has the lowest over/under total in the East. It'd have to win five more games than last year to hit the over. Even if head coach Jordi Fernandez continues to motivate at a high level, and even if the Nets have no incentive to tank with Houston controlling their 2027 first-rounder, the roster just isn't improved enough to climb the standings.
Charlotte Hornets: Over 38.5 Wins
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It's easy to build the case for the Charlotte Hornets going under 38.5 wins. It seems like most observers are convinced LaMelo Ball's exit constitutes a conscious step backward for the organization, one taken in an Eastern Conference that looks loaded with improved teams.
Are we sure Coby White can't replace 85 percent of LaMelo's playmaking? What if Naz Reid's spacing, combined with steps forward from Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel, produces offensive numbers nearly as good as last year's? The defense will certainly be stouter without Ball out there for teams to attack.
Suppose new additions Royce O'Neale and Grayson Allen combine to bring more value than the departed Miles Bridges? At the very least, they'll ensure the Hornets get up tons of threes.
It's probably a hot take to say Charlotte can win more than last year's 44 games without Ball, but they had a 53-win point differential to reach that total. The Hornets could get significantly worse and still crack 39 to hit the over.
Chicago Bulls: Under 29.5 Wins
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Nicolas Claxton and Norman Powell give the Chicago Bulls more veteran firepower than they had last season, but that will only matter until one or both of them get traded.
Powell's deal is particularly designed to be moved. Chicago inked him to a two-year agreement worth $44 million, but the second season is a team option, presenting a trade suitor with the dual appeal of present production and future flexibility.
Everyone seems to agree that rookie Caleb Wilson has star potential, but even rookies with that kind of long-term upside tend to do more harm than good in their first seasons. Chicago should give Wilson all the playing time and responsibility he can handle, but it should also be prepared for him to hurt the bottom line.
A star leap from Matas Buzelis is the Bulls' best path to hitting their over, but heavy minutes for young players and the possibility of a sell-off make it safer to assume a win total in the high 20s.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Over 48.5 Wins
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One of several Eastern Conference teams clustered in this general range, the Cleveland Cavaliers look at least as good as they have at any point in the last four seasons. They've averaged 54 wins during that stretch.
Peyton Watson fills a critical void between the James Harden/Donovan Mitchell backcourt and the Evan Mobley/Jarrett Allen combo up front, providing athleticism, defense and secondary creation while also threatening opponents with a three-point shot that crept just over 40.0 percent last season.
Depth could be an issue with Dean Wade, Dennis Schroder, Max Strus and Keon Ellis heading out over the summer. Watson and the other starters will need to be in top form for the postseason, which could lead to a few "no hope" nights when several starters sit and the overmatched reserves slide into larger roles. Then again, Cleveland could get a breakthrough year from Jaylon Tyson. Sam Merrill is one of the most underrated backups in the league.
Cleveland probably can't and won't chase the 64 wins it reached in 2024-25, but 49 would be below its average over the last few seasons and should be a goal given the potential importance of seeding come playoff time.
Dallas Mavericks: Under 33.5 Wins
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Cooper Flagg's natural growth and Kyrie Irving's return should add five extra wins this season, but that would only take the Dallas Mavericks to a 31-51 record if we're working off last year's 26-56 mark.
New head coach Dusty May comes with all the usual questions about a college transplant. Generally speaking, these kinds of hires don't work out. If he succeeds in getting Dallas back into the thick of the playoff picture, he'll be the exception that proves the rule.
The glut at forward pairs with a dearth of playmakers, leaving Dallas a little unbalanced. Much depends on Irving getting back in form after his torn ACL. That's a tall order for a 34-year-old who could also start angling for a trade to a higher-level competitor at some point during the season.
The path to hitting the over features a rejuvenated Dereck Lively II, an expectation-beating coaching season from May, a healthy and happy Irving and sustained progress from Flagg. That last factor is the only one we should count as a given.
Denver Nuggets: Over 47.5 Wins
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Even as they've sent out key players to save money, battled injuries to indispensable starters and scrambled to build a real defense around Nikola Jokić's limitations, the Denver Nuggets have almost always been good enough to threaten the 50-win mark.
Their worst 82-game record since Jokić stepped to the fore came in 2017-18, when they won 46 games.
Peyton Watson's absence saps the Nuggets of what little athleticism they had. The quieter departures of Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valnciunas contribute to perhaps the thinnest roster of the Jokić era.
If Aaron Gordon can't stay healthy, new addition DeMar DeRozan can't prop up bench units and "why not?" camp invitee Cam Whitmore doesn't impress, the Nuggets could wind up outside the West's top six.
In the end, it's just too hard to bet against Jokić, who'll ensure Denver posts the league's highest offensive rating whenever he's on the floor. If Jamal Murray, Cam Johnson and Gordon hold up while Christian Braun shakes off last year's injury issues, another 50-win season should be the expectation.
Detroit Pistons: Over 48.5 Wins
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All the shooting the Detroit Pistons added over the offseason could help improve on last year's No. 10 finish in offensive efficiency, even if the team's failure to add more playmaking feels like a mistake.
Isaiah Stewart's absence from the reserve rotation could knock the Pistons down from their No. 2 perch in defensive efficiency, but Ausar Thompson should probably be good enough to offset some of that slippage. Or at least he'd better be, given the $155 million extension he signed.
Jalen Duren's potential unhappiness seems significant enough to warrant some attention. It's not a given that John Collins will be an upgrade over Tobias Harris at the 4.
Though we've spent most of this space outlining concerns, we need to remember that the Pistons won 60 games last year and are still led by MVP candidate Cade Cunningham. They could endure several bad breaks and still reach the 49 wins they'll need for the over.
Golden State Warriors: Under 38.5 Wins
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If Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody were both fully healthy for the start of the season, and if Kristaps Porzingis were assured of playing in at least 60 games for the first time since 2022-23, and if anyone could be sure that the runner's knee that limited Stephen Curry to 43 games a year ago was gone for good, maybe you could feel safe picking the over.
Because none of those things are certain, it just doesn't make sense to predict that the Golden State Warriors will win at least two more games than they did last season.
Butler is 37 and coming off a torn ACL. Nobody's sure when he'll return, but it seems safe to assume he'll be further reduced athletically than he was before the knee injury. The Warriors cannot expect more overall production this season than he provided in 38 games a year ago.
An already ancient roster is a year older. The only new addition is rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, while the complete lack of playmaking beyond Curry puts even more pressure and attention on him.
There will be nights when Steph and the Dubs look like their old selves. There just won't be 39 of them.
Houston Rockets: Over 47.5 Wins
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Fred VanVleet won't be his best self at 32, coming off an ACL tear, but he'll at least help a Houston Rockets offense that relied on Kevin Durant to a ridiculous degree last year.
KD will still be central, but VanVleet's return, growth from Reed Sheppard, newcomer Marcus Smart and the hopeful emergence of Amen Thompson's offensive game could bring a more egalitarian approach to Houston's half-court attack. At the very least, it'll make the Rockets less predictable in close-and-late situations. Even modest improvements there should, combined with an excellent defense, make Houston a tough beat.
Steven Adams will still produce elite offensive rebounding rates whenever he's on the floor. Alperen Sengün may not be done developing his game at 24. Tari Eason will make an impact if he can stay healthy.
A 52-win team last year, the Rockets are objectively more talented this time around and still have a couple of players capable of making leaps. All told, it shouldn't be that hard to cruise past 47 wins for an easy over.
Indiana Pacers: Over 43.5 Wins
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When we last saw a fully healthy version of the Indiana Pacers, they were tipping off Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals with a real shot to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Tyrese Haliburton's Achilles blew out early in that contest. That led to a gap year that apparently made oddsmakers forget how good Indy once was.
Haliburton is back. The Pacers added bulk by trading for Ivica Zubac late last season, as one of the NBA's most dynamic offenses should be up and running once again. Indiana's 50 wins in that 2024-25 season might be tough to match without picking up a few cheap victories against tankers, but reaching 44 should be doable if Haliburton is even close to what he used to be.
LA Clippers: Over 29.5 Wins
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The LA Clippers are without their three best players from last season, having sent Kawhi Leonard to Toronto in the offseason and shipping out James Harden and Ivica Zubac during the year.
An over/under figure this low makes it seem like LA didn't get anything back in those trades or sign new blood in free agency.
Darius Garland looked terrific for the Clips after coming over for Harden, averaging 19.9 points and drilling 43.8 percent of his threes in 19 games. Brandon Ingram, the main return for Leonard (draft picks excluded), is a low-end All-Star. Free agent forward Rui Hachimura can stripe it from deep.
The Clippers are almost certainly no better than a Play-In team. A Garland trade could bring the under into play if no helpful on-court pieces come back in that hypothetical. 29 wins just seems too low for a team with legitimate talent at key positions.
Let's pencil the Clippers in for 32 wins and move on.
Los Angeles Lakers: Over 44.5
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There's at least a discussion to be had about whether the rebuilt Los Angeles Lakers that feature Walker Kessler, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton, Matisse Thybulle and Ziaire Williams are actually better than last year's edition, which included LeBron James, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton and Luke Kennard.
While that debate clearly means Los Angeles overspent in both cash and draft capital on its new roster, it doesn't point to a downgrade large enough to knock 9 wins off last year's total.
That's what it would take for the Lakers to hit the under here.
Much depends on Luka Dončić staying healthy enough to produce a top-five offense, but Austin Reaves provides some playmaking insurance in the event of injury. Assuming Kessler is good enough to prop up a mostly punchless defense, a win total in the high 40s seems realistic.
Memphis Grizzlies: Under 29.5 Wins
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It's hard to know how organically bad the 2025-26 Memphis Grizzlies really were. Among the most egregious lineup manipulators and unabashed tankers in the league, the Grizzlies managed just 25 wins last season.
Even if Memphis could have won closer to 30 games with a real effort, the same lottery reform that disincentivizes them from losing so much on purpose this time around should make their competition tougher to beat.
Zach Edey's return to health and Cam Boozer's promising floor game give Memphis a front line worth respecting. The veteran duo of Isaiah Stewart and Jerami Grant adds real depth. If Cedric Coward takes a step toward stardom, the Grizzlies could be a tough team to beat on most nights.
In the end, we need to remember that Memphis is rebuilding, facing more focused competition and is mainly interested in player development. That's going to keep them below 29 wins.
Miami Heat: Over 44.5 Wins
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The Miami Heat won 43 games and posted the point differential of a 47-win team last year. Adding Giannis Antetokounmpo is supposed to make them...worse?
It appears concerns about the Heat's depth and Antetokounmpo's age/injury risk are playing a big role here. It's reasonable to consider the downside. It still feels safer (and a lot more fun) to bet on a motivated Antetokounmpo putting together a season that lands him on the MVP shortlist while playing for the best coach in the league.
Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. provide desperately needed spacing. There's the outline of a top-five defense, while the uptempo offensive system Miami installed last year seems to play right into Giannis' strengths as a downhill attacker in a spaced floor.
You can knock the Heat for mortgaging their future for what might be a brief stint as a fringe contender, but that's a long-term issue. Just looking at the upcoming season, Miami certainly seems capable of winning at least 44 games.
Milwaukee Bucks: Over 26.5 Wins
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Taylor Jenkins will get more out of the Milwaukee Bucks than a mostly checked-out Doc Rivers did last season. The new head coach also has a deeper roster than most believe.
Milwaukee got back Tyler Herro, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kel'el Ware for Giannis Antetokounmpo. They'll join Ryan Rollins, Myles Turner, AJ Green and a handful of others to create a real NBA rotation. It's possible one or more of the Bucks' movable vets could be traded, which could suppress the team's win total. But the actual talent on hand is good enough to win 30 games.
In fact, it wouldn't be a complete shock if this year's Bucks bested the 32 wins produced by last season's team. At the very least, without Giannis' trade situation hanging over the franchise, the vibes in Milwaukee should be improved.
Nobody's predicting a postseason trip, but the Bucks aren't nearly as bereft of proven NBA players as some other teams near the bottom of the projected standings.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Under 47.5 Wins
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This year's Minnesota Timberwolves will be meaningfully different from the ones that won 49 games last season. Without Julius Randle and Naz Reid, the updated Wolves are built around a seemingly deep guard rotation that might not be built to pile up wins over the course of the year.
LaMelo Ball's spotty health record is a huge reason the Hornets moved on from him. One minute-managed 72-game season in 2025-26 doesn't erase the fact that he averaged 35 across the previous three years. If he misses significant time, Anthony Edwards will be even more strained on offense than he used to be, absent Randle's secondary playmaking and Reid's critical spacing.
This version of Minnesota, playing at full strength, might have a better chance to reach the Finals than previous ones. That should be the central focus in the wake of a bold, all-in trade. That's not the same thing as saying the Wolves are built to rack up 50 wins during the year.
New Orleans Pelicans: Under 28.5 Wins
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The 62 games he played last season feel like the upper limit on expectations for Zion Williamson in the coming year. Even that might be optimistic; it was the second-highest total of his career.
The New Orleans Pelicans didn't exactly add much talent to offset Zion's potential absence. They also didn't meaningfully improve the roster that produced their 26-56 record in 2025-26.
Bennedict Mathurin is the Pels' only notable newcomer. His mostly empty scoring won't be all that helpful on a team that ranked worse on defense than on offense last season.
Maybe if new head coach Jamahl Mosley somehow coaxes league-average defensive work out of this group while Trey Murphy III pops and second-year duo Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears take big steps forward, the over will be in danger.
Otherwise, the expectation should be something very close to last year's 26 wins.
New York Knicks: Under 51.5 Wins
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Winning the 2026 NBA championship required historic comebacks and put the New York Knicks through heavy minute totals under intense pressure. They played 101 games between the regular season and playoffs and were battling it out with the San Antonio Spurs midway through June, a full two months after half the league had wrapped up their campaigns.
Then came the parades, interviews, media blitzes and all the rest of the exhausting post-title necessities.
With a core made up mostly of players who've crossed over to the wrong side of 30, and in the wake of everything they just went through, the Knicks are not exactly coming into the 2026-27 season with fresh legs and renewed spirits.
New York is a contender. Nobody is going to want a piece of it in the playoffs. But defending champs feel fatigue more acutely than anyone, which will keep the Knicks under 51 wins.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Under 61.5 Wins
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The Oklahoma City Thunder have averaged 63 wins per season over the last three years, topping out at a whopping 68 in 2024-25. Heading into the season, they're first-class contenders who could lead the league in wins if that's their priority.
A potentially shallower roster, the likelihood of resting a couple of key players more often and the dearth of tankers to smash in March and April should all prevent OKC from hitting the over.
Having shed Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, the Thunder are down one starter and two rotation players. Cason Wallace, Jared McCain and Ajay Mitchell will more than offset those absences by playing bigger minutes in the playoffs, but Oklahoma City may not want to overtax them during the year. That'll result in some deeper-bench options receiving playing time, as the Thunder will also surely take it easy on Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and especially Jalen Williams.
After enduring multiple hamstring injuries last season, J-Dub will find himself on ice for extended periods if he feels even the slightest tweak in that leg.
Expect younger options like Nikola Topić, Thomas Sorber, Bennet Stirtz and Aday Mara to see action as OKC conservatively manages its way through the year.
Orlando Magic: Over 43.5 Wins
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The Orlando Magic got just 408 possessions from their ideal starting lineup. They endured yet another unimaginative offensive season under fired head coach Jamahl Mosley and saw Paolo Banchero's jumper completely abandon him.
They still won 45 games last year.
Other than the increased number of capable, competitive teams in the East, there's not much of a reason to believe the Magic are in for slippage.
New head coach Sean Sweeney almost has to be an improvement over Mosley. The Magic are going to get Banchero and Franz Wagner on the floor for an extended stretch at some point before both retire. Assuming even moderate health luck and a more dynamic attack under Sweeney—perhaps one driven by a resurgent Banchero who gets to play for a coach he actually likes—Orlando feels like a threat to push toward 50 wins.
Philadelphia 76ers: Over 50.5 Wins
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We all know the health caveats attached to Joel Embiid, who has averaged 32 games per season in the three years since he won MVP. If he's available for half of the Philadelphia 76ers' games, it'll be a surprise.
LeBron James will turn 42 in December and probably shouldn't be counted on for more than the 60 games he managed last year.
That means Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown and VJ Edgecombe will need to carry the load if the Sixers are going to do better than 50 wins.
This is a bet that those three will be nearly good enough to handle that on their own. That James and Embiid will chip in often enough to get Philly to at least 51-31.
Coming off a relatively lucky 45 wins after posting a 40-win point differential, the Sixers have to make some real gains. Embiid's slightly better health, plus the Brown/James combo replacing Paul George's modest contributions, is reason enough for optimism.
Phoenix Suns: Under 39.5 Wins
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You could make a case that the Phoenix Suns will fall short of 40 wins by pointing to Mark Williams' injury and the possibility that Miles Bridges won't be an upgrade over Royce O'Neale and Grayson Allen.
But you don't need to.
The real case against the Suns shows up in their record against good teams last season. When Phoenix squared off against opponents with records of .500 or better, it went just 21-30. Assuming the Suns won't be able to fatten up on tankers as they did a year ago, it's pretty easy to imagine them finishing with a losing record.
If Khaman Maluach takes a big step forward, and if head coach Jordan Ott is able to summon the same level of defensive intensity for the second year in a row, the over could be in danger. But the smart money is on Phoenix taking a step back in the standings because they'll face tougher competition more consistently.
Portland Trail Blazers: Over 41.5 Wins
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The positional mixture of the Portland Trail Blazers' talent doesn't make a ton of sense, but there's at least more of it.
The logjam at guard between trade acquisition Ja Morant, returning icon Damian Lillard, Scoot Henderson and Jrue Holiday will be tricky to navigate. Even in a best-case scenario where Morant regains his star form, it'll come at the cost of reps and responsibility for Henderson. Meanwhile, the potential backcourt of Morant and Lillard is as defensively untenable as any in the league.
The biggest issue with all those guards is that none of them should handle the ball more than star forward Deni Avdjia. His downhill attacks draw fouls and open up threes for teammates. Portland's best sets put the ball in his hands.
In the end, trusting Portland to hit the over requires faith in Avdija's continued brilliance, head coach Micah Nori's rotation management and a step toward All-Defensive status for big man Donovan Clingan. This is one of the toughest lines on the board, but the Blazers have the pieces to hit the over if they can get organized.
Sacramento Kings: Under 20.5 Wins
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The Sacramento Kings won eight of their final 18 games, finishing 22-60 last year. That feat doesn't seem repeatable.
Domantas Sabonis wants out, Zach LaVine has no future with the team, and head coach Doug Christie didn't do anything last year to inspire confidence that he can run a functional show on either end. Rookie point guard Darius Acuff Jr. is poised to take a ton of lumps as his team's primary shot-creator.
Between having the most capricious ownership group in the league, arguably the least talented roster and a performance last year that probably should have produced only 17 or 18 wins, the Kings are this season's best bet to finish with a win total in the teens.
San Antonio Spurs: Over 60.5 Wins
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We went with the under on OKC's 61.5 figure. Some of the same lack of tankers should make it tricky for the San Antonio Spurs to climb above their similarly high total.
The Spurs differ from Oklahoma City in that they're not established champs with mid-prime stars who might need some rest. Instead, San Antonio is built on young, ascendant talent that doesn't seem to come with "off" switches. Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama won't average 40 minutes per night, but they'll play as if they've got everything to prove.
All three of those players should be better than the versions that led the Spurs to the Finals. They'll get support from veteran newcomer Tobias Harris and returners De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie.
The Spurs' recent history suggests they'll care a little more than the Thunder about securing the West's top seed and sending a message. That, plus Wemby's impossible-to-project ceiling, should be enough to get to at least 61 wins.
Toronto Raptors: Over 46.5 Wins
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Unless you think Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick help a team's regular-season bottom line more than Kawhi Leonard does, you kind of have to take the Toronto Raptors' over.
After racking up 46 wins with a 49-win point differential last season, the Raps sent two future firsts and a swap with Ingram and Dick to the Clippers for Leonard. Injury and availability risks will dog Leonard until his career is over, but just half a season's worth of appearances from him should produce as much value as Ingram did in 77 games last year.
If Jakob Poeltl can shake the injury bug himself, Scottie Barnes' ongoing ascent reaches All-NBA levels for the first time and Collin Murray-Boyles makes a play for All-Defensive honors, Toronto could nudge up past 50 wins.
Utah Jazz: Over 37.5 Wins
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Walker Kessler's departure in a sign-and-trade with the Lakers forced the Utah Jazz to pivot from their original plans, which featured Kessler at the 5 in a hulking front line alongside Jaren Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen.
Utah couldn't refuse the two first-rounders and two swaps Los Angeles offered, but it's hard to argue the team is better in the short term with Jusuf Nurkić and Jaxson Hayes playing the minutes that would have gone to Kessler.
That said, 38 wins just doesn't seem out of reach for a Utah team that just extended rising star guard Keyonte George and should take the tank-inspired training wheels off Markkanen and the rest of the vets. They can also expect growth from Ace Bailey.'
Choosing the over depends on the belief that Utah has been playing with one hand tied behind its back for the last several years. That it was giving games away to improve its lottery position. It requires faith that Will Hardy can be one of the league's best coaches in games that actually matter, while Jackson can hold up for more minutes at center than he or Utah expected.
None of those are givens, but the Jazz have real talent on both ends of the floor and should relish the chance to finally unleash it all after holding back for so long.
Washington Wizards: Under 33.5 Wins
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The Washington Wizards are going to be a meaningfully different team than the one that won 17 games a year ago. Led by veterans Trae Young and Anthony Davis, they have a shot at doubling their 2025-26 win total to clear the over. That's a rare feat, but it wouldn't be without precedent.
The Rockets almost pulled it off from 2022-23 to 2023-24, when they went from 22 wins to 41. The Pistons nearly tripled their victory count (14 to 44) from 2023-24 to 2024-25.
At the same time, this is still a mostly young team that cannot assume all of its under-25 players will take leaps. Price in the possibility that Davis will be injured or traded, while sprinkling in some concerns about Young's ability to recapture his past form and the brutal competitiveness of the East; it becomes easier to doubt that the Wizards will reach 34 wins.
In a conference this tough, somebody has to lose some games.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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