Which CFB Playoff Contender Can Make the Biggest Statement in Week 1?
Teams don't win championships in September. But that doesn't mean they can't get a head start in the race.
Week 1 of the college football season is prime time for programs who want to set the tone for a playoff push. While early losses won't put an end to those title dreams, teams can cement themselves as serious contenders with big opening-week wins.
So which team has the most to gain from a Week 1 victory?
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
As Jon Solomon of CBS Sports noted Tuesday, the first week of the 2015 season only has one game between top-25 teams—No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 20 Wisconsin at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. According to Solomon, fans were treated to three top-25 matchups to open 2014.
Being the only preseason contender to play a ranked team to open the season, Alabama would be the easy answer here.
But according to Odds Shark, Alabama is a 10-point favorite over Wisconsin, which is breaking in a new head coach and must replace half its starters from last season. While a loss for the Tide would produce some nuclear-level hot takes, few would be impressed if Alabama takes care of business in Arlington on Saturday.
The same goes for No. 2 TCU, which opened as a 16-point road favorite for Thursday night's game at Minnesota. No. 1 Ohio State is favored between 11 and 12 points on the road against a Virginia Tech team it lost to last season, and No. 6 Auburn is steady as a 10.5-point favorite over Louisville in neutral-site Atlanta.
Later on down the list, No. 11 Notre Dame is a nine-point favorite at home against Texas, and No. 13 UCLA has a slightly larger advantage on Virginia. If all six of these teams record multi-score wins this weekend, don't expect to see a big shakeup in the polls or the national conversation.
The rest of the major contenders, from No. 2 Baylor down to No. 19 Oklahoma, will feast on an easy and steady diet of Group of Five and FCS programs—except for one.
No. 15 Arizona State is becoming a trendier playoff dark-horse pick, and the Sun Devils have the best opportunity to make a huge statement on Saturday night.
Arizona State will face Texas A&M, which is ranked just outside the AP's preseason top 25, in a virtual road game at neutral-site NRG Stadium in Houston.
Spoiler alert: The crowd will mostly be made up of Aggie fans.
And that in-state advantage for Texas A&M makes Arizona State the underdog in this matchup. The Aggies opened as three-point favorites over the Sun Devils and are holding steady there, even though Arizona State is the higher-ranked team in all the major polls.
According to Doug Haller of the Arizona Republic, Arizona State head coach Todd Graham is already well aware of the challenge his team will face from those "Aggies" who aren't lining up on the field Saturday night:
"Obviously, I'm very familiar with what type of atmosphere we're going into; it's why we took the game. It's going to be one of the loudest places we've ever played. It'll be a big-time atmosphere, which we hope to get a lot of opportunities in.
There's a reason why they call [Texas A&M's crowd] the 12th man. They've got one of the best home atmospheres. Even though we're playing at a so-called neutral site, with their alumni base there, it will be a major crowd for them.
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While they don't have the name value of a USC or an Oregon out of the Pac-12, the Sun Devils have the potential to make a serious run at championships this season.
Last year, Arizona State overachieved in a huge way, winning 10 games in a season in which it had just eight returning starters—with just two on defense. The Sun Devils beat four ranked teams in the span of five weeks.
Now, they have 16 returning starters, including their top two rushers, three of their top five receivers, four offensive linemen and all but two of their top playmakers from last year's defense.
Arizona State's offense is both balanced and explosive. The Sun Devils ranked No. 33 nationally in passing and No. 58 in rushing last season while finishing No. 20 for offensive plays of 10 yards or more.
One of Arizona State's few new full-time starters, senior quarterback Mike Bercovici, threw for more than 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns last season in just three starts. Now he's ready to take over an offense that returns plenty of weapons and veteran linemen.
"I know one thing: If I was an NFL coach, that's the kind of quarterback I'd look for—a guy that's not just talked about character, but has demonstrated it by his walk," Graham said, via Haller. "Mike's getting better every day. He's like having a coach on the field."
Bercovici and the veteran Arizona State offense will take on a Texas A&M defense that has struggled in recent seasons but has a new coordinator in veteran John Chavis. If the Sun Devils can hit the Aggies with their speed and power on offense, big plays will come against a unit in transition.
Arizona State should get the most trouble from Texas A&M when the Aggies have the ball, but the Sun Devils are experienced on defense.
Texas A&M will look to push the ball through the air Saturday night with sophomore quarterback Kyle Allen and a deep corps of talented receivers including Josh Reynolds, Speedy Noil and Ricky Seals-Jones.
Arizona State returns its top six linebackers from a season ago and all but one starter in the secondary. The back seven will be busy, but it's the most veteran, battle-tested unit on the entire team.
As Ian Boyd of SB Nation wrote earlier this year, Arizona State is "perfectly designed to ruin (the Aggies') day," even though it's are considered the underdog in this matchup away from home.
"The Arizona State game plan will be simple: attack the Aggies with exotic blitzes on defense and motion/misdirection on offense," Boyd wrote. "Look for a lead, then pound the ball on the ground to avoid having to block (Texas A&M defensive end Myles) Garrett in crunch time."
If Arizona State can move the ball efficiently against the Chavis defense and frustrate what should be another high-powered offense from Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin, the upset is there for the taking.
A big win in a virtual road game would give Arizona State huge momentum heading into a trio of home games—the last of which is a matchup with Pac-12 favorite USC.
Get the early-season hype train rolling, and these Sun Devils will be more than dark horses in the race for the national championship.
All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
