MLB Playoff Picture: Breaking Down the Most Likely AL and NL Scenarios
More than one full month remains until we can know anything for sure when it comes to baseball's postseason.
The second wild-card berth keeps several teams mathematically and realistically alive deep into September, and this year possibly into early October as the regular-season stretches into a seventh month on the baseball calendar.
But as we step into the final month(ish), we can be pretty confident in some of the postseason participants hanging on to their spots through the next four-plus weeks of the regular season.
Knowing that, we shouldn’t feel too bad looking forward, doing a little guessing, a little prognosticating and a little bit of stating the obvious in calling the 10 playoff participants and matchups for the first four division series. We can do so using the standings through Monday and some help from the FanGraphs playoff odds.
Plenty of shuffling can still happen, but as September begins, this is what the early part of these coming playoffs might look like.
AL Wild Card: Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
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These teams currently sit in the two wild-card spots, with the Rangers four games out of the AL West lead and the Yankees 1.5 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East. FanGraphs says the Rangers have a 52.2 percent chance of making the playoffs and the Yankees are at 95.3 percent.
While the Yankees are still in position to overtake Toronto, it appears the Rangers are destined for the AL Wild Card Game. That means a one-game playoff for the right to face the team with the American League’s best record, more than likely the Kansas City Royals.
And as most one-game situations do, this comes down to a pitching matchup. The problem for the Yankees is that even with a month to go in the season, they still don’t have a true No. 1 starter they can definitively say is their man for a game like this.
The Rangers certainly do in Cole Hamels, whom they acquired just before the July 31 trade deadline. At the time it was seen as a move to better them for 2016 as they sat two games under .500, but now it is looking like a trade that could help propel them through this play-in game.
The Yankees are likely to pick their starter based on who is going well at the time, and that means choosing from Michael Pineda, Masahiro Tanaka, Ivan Nova and even rookie Luis Severino. But because the Yankees can’t say for sure whom they would want to start this game, and the Rangers absolutely can, you’d have to lean toward Texas.
NL Wild Card: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
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Both teams are firmly holding their current positions in the respective wild-card spots. The Cubs have a 93.5 percent chance to hang on to their second position, while the Pirates have an 86.2 percent chance, but that is because they are only five games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central.
Pittsburgh’s chances to make the postseason in any form are 99 percent.
By the time this game rolls around, these clubs will have already played 19 times, and as of right now the Cubs have won seven of the 12. The Pirates offense has been a bit better throughout the season, but in a one-game situation, those numbers can be forgotten for at least a few hours.
What cannot be forgotten is the men at the top of these rotations. The Pirates undoubtedly have to go with ace Gerrit Cole, something they opted not to do last year in order to pitch him in the final game of the season hoping for a chance to win the division.
This year, the division seems out of reach, so the choice is easy.
For the Cubs, the decision is a bit more difficult. They have to choose between Jake Arrieta, who has emerged as the team’s ace, or Jon Lester, who has 84 postseason innings on his resume with a 2.57 ERA attached to them. Lester also pitched last year’s AL Wild Card Game for the Oakland A’s, though he allowed six runs in 7.1 innings.
"Some of it may have to do with who you’re playing and how your pitchers stack up against that particular team," Maddon told USA Today's Jorge Ortiz last week. "That may have something to do with that decision, because that game needs to be won, has to be won, must be won, or else all the other stuff doesn’t even happen."
Arrieta has a 0.86 ERA in three starts against the Pirates this season, and Lester has one start against them, going seven innings and allowing one run in May.
At this point, this could be a pick-'em game, but with the Pirates hosting, and seeing how this would be the third time in three seasons they’ve played in the one-game showdown, the edge goes their way.
AL Division Series: Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals
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The Royals immediately have the advantage in this series since they can start Johnny Cueto in Game 1, while the Rangers would have to choose between Derek Holland and Yovani Gallardo, most likely, because Cole Hamels will be spent in the Wild Card Game.
That and the fact that the Royals still have a shutdown bullpen and by far the best defense in baseball leads us to believe they’d be the favorite to advance to their second consecutive AL Championship Series.
However, just because Gallardo and Holland might not be as good as Cueto does not mean they are not good. In fact, there is a solid argument that those two are better than Kansas City’s likely next two pitchers after Cueto, Edinson Volquez and Yordano Ventura. Then again, because of the Royals bullpen, Volquez and Ventura won’t be required to give their team as much as Texas’ starters.
The bottom line is the Royals are the favorites here for the same reason they went to last season’s World Series—their bullpen. The threesome of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland is still great, but the Royals also have the likes of Franklin Morales and Ryan Madson to count on when needed.
That relief group could be enough to carry the Royals through.
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NL Division Series: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
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The Cardinals making the postseason is about as sure a bet as there is right now, although the Kansas City Royals share the distinction. FanGraphs says both are 100 percent locks to make it.
The reason the Cardinals are in that position is the same reason they'd be going-away favorites in this series.
Their rotation is working to become one of the all-time best by putting up a 2.78 ERA this year, by far the best in the majors. When other teams are struggling to fill out their playoff rotations, the Cardinals will be scratching their heads deciding which starter to give the ball to in Game 1 and which ones to leave out altogether. In a good way.
The bullpen is pretty good, too, with its 2.38 ERA. The Pirates have a pretty good bunch of relievers as well (2.53 ERA is second in the NL to the Cardinals), but while you need a good bullpen in the postseason, a quality rotation matters much more.
The Cardinals have that, therefore they have the nod going into this series.
AL Division Series: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays
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Watching the Blue Jays play baseball at this point is like watching a slow-pitch softball team having a really good time. Except that unlike that kind of softball squad, they also have starting pitching that can shut down an opposing lineup.
Troy Tulowitzki was a great acquisition, and sticking him at the top of the lineup was a savvy move for the Blue Jays.
But acquiring David Price at the July trade deadline was the one that made them real contenders—FanGraphs gives them a 99.5 percent chance to make the playoffs. And with R.A. Dickey now pitching like he did in 2012 when the won the NL Cy Young Award—he is 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his last 10 starts, and the Blue Jays are 8-2 in those starts—the rotation is more than just Price.
The Astros have firepower, and they are not bad in the rotation. Even their bullpen is pretty good.
But with Toronto’s kind of offense, one that leads the majors with a 124 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) and .824 OPS in the second half, that kind of pitching and a bullpen that has become quite good—1.86 ERA in the second half—the Blue Jays look like the most complete team in the league.
NL Division Series: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
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If you love pitching, strap yourself in. This could be a classic.
The tops of these rotations are something to behold. The Mets boast some combination of Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard, possibly the best young starting trio in the majors as they all entered this season 26 years old or younger.
However, the other side boasts arguably the two best pitchers in the league. Clayton Kershaw is the best hurler on the planet, and even though his small postseason sample size has led us to believe he can’t thrive on the big stage, this is the guy most people with decent vision would want starting for them.
Zack Greinke would pitch Game 1 for virtually any other team in the sport, but his major league-best 1.61 ERA, 232 ERA+ and 0.848 WHIP will likely take a back seat to Kershaw. Greinke's a great Game 2 option considering what most other teams would throw out there.
The Dodgers’ issue is their bullpen. It has become completely unreliable in the second half, and in that time, the Mets have turned into one of the best groups in the league. As we saw last October, that could mean doom for the Dodgers.
This series could come down to who pitches better in Game 3 and which bullpen is more consistent. If we are judging this right now, the Mets have the edge, and the Dodgers, with their enormous payroll, will again go home because the cheapest part of their team couldn’t carry its weight.
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