College Football Picks Week 1: Predictions and Odds for Top 25 Schedule
The age of the cupcake opener is no more in college football. While there are still plenty of Associated Press Top 25 squads facing totally overmatched opponents—we're looking at you, Baylor Bears, Michigan State Spartans and Clemson Tigers—a number of the top teams have elected to go with tougher competition, making Week 1 highly intriguing.
Despite the lack of Top 25 matchups in Week 1—there is just one between the No. 3-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide and No. 20-ranked Wisconsin Badgers—there is still plenty of intrigue for the top teams, with each of the top three facing a tough test from a Power Five opponent.
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Here’s a look at all of the Top 25 games and a deeper inspection of three of the week’s top matchups.
Week 1 Schedule, Odds and Predictions
| Sept. 3 | No. 16 Georgia Tech vs. Alcorn State | 7:30 p.m. | N/A | GT 59-17 |
| Sept. 3 | Minnesota vs. No. 2 TCU | 9 p.m. | TCU -16 | TCU 42-28 |
| Sept. 3 | No. 22 Arizona vs. Texas-San Antonio | 10 p.m. | AZ -30.5 | AZ 49-14 |
| Sept. 4 | Western Michigan vs. No. 5 Michigan State | 7 p.m. | MSU -23.5 | MSU 42-10 |
| Sept. 4 | SMU vs. No. 4 Baylor | 7 p.m. | BU -20 | BU 70-28 |
| Sept. 4 | No. 23 Boise State vs. Washington | 10:15 p.m. | BSU -11 | WASH 28-27 |
| Sept. 5 | Northwestern vs. No. 21 Stanford | Noon | STAN -10 | STAN 31-14 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 9 Georgia vs. Louisiana-Monroe | Noon | UGA -31 | UGA 48-20 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 17 Ole Miss vs. Tennessee-Martin | Noon | N/A | MISS 35-14 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 12 Clemson vs. Wofford | 12:30 p.m. | N/A | CLEM 52-10 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 13 UCLA vs. Virginia | 3:30 p.m. | UCLA -14.5 | UCLA 28-21 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 18 Arkansas vs. UTEP | 3:30 p.m. | ARK -35 | ARK 31-7 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 6 Auburn vs. Louisville | 3:30 p.m. | AUB -10.5 | AUB 35-27 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 24 Missouri vs. Southeast Missouri State | 4 p.m. | N/A | MIS 38-20 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 25 Tennessee vs. Bowling Green | 4 p.m. | TENN -17 | TENN 31-20 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 19 Oklahoma vs. Akron | 7 p.m. | OKLA -38 | OKLA 42-10 |
| Sept. 5 | Texas A&M vs. No. 15 Arizona State | 7 p.m. | TAM -3 | ASU 31-28 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 14 LSU vs. McNeese State | 7:30 p.m. | N/A | LSU 38-10 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 11 Notre Dame vs. Texas | 7:30 p.m. | ND -9 | ND 27-21 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 7 Oregon vs. Eastern Washington | 8 p.m. | N/A | ORE 63-24 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 20 Wisconsin | 8 p.m. | ALA -10 | ALA 31-21 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 10 Florida State vs. Texas State | 8 p.m. | FSU -37 | FSU 38-17 |
| Sept. 5 | No. 8 USC vs. Arkansas State | 11 p.m. | USC -27 | USC 41-20 |
| Sept. 7 | Virginia Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State | 8 p.m. | OSU -14 | OSU 27-21 |
Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark. Multiple game lines are still to be determined.
Notable Matchups
No. 2 TCU at Minnesota
Last season, TCU obliterated Minnesota at home 30-7, a win that was heavily used as an argument for why the Horned Frogs deserved a spot in the College Football Playoff ahead of eventual national champion Ohio State—a largely futile effort in the end.
Heading into this season, expectations for TCU are sky-high, and the team gets started with a rematch against the Golden Gophers on the road. But despite what happened last year, this isn’t going to be an easy win for the Horned Frogs in their quest for a title.
Trevone Boykin is a bona fide superstar surrounded by a number of elite weapons and a defense that should be great once again—it’s what head coach Gary Patterson is known for—but Minnesota isn’t going to lie down at the first sign of adversity this time.
Even without star running back David Cobb and tight end Maxx Williams, the Gophers have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and a distinct home-field advantage. It will take a herculean effort from reigning Big Ten Coach of the Year Jerry Kill's team to pull off the upset, but the game should be a lot closer than it was in 2014.
If TCU isn’t careful, it could be in for a rough start to a season that feels like a national championship-or-bust campaign.
Prediction: TCU wins 42-28.
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 20 Wisconsin
In any other year, this game would be a walkover for the Crimson Tide. Over several seasons, Alabama had built a reputation for having one of the staunchest run defenses every year—which wouldn’t bode well for a run-heavy Wisconsin offense—but then the Sugar Bowl happened.
The Crimson Tide gave up 281 rushing yards in the loss to Ohio State, 230 of which Ezekiel Elliott gained, and the once-impregnable Alabama defensive front was exposed, something the Badgers were more than happy to see heading into the season opener.
Wisconsin lost superstar Melvin Gordon III to the NFL after his record-breaking season in 2014, but the Badgers' running back factory line is still running, and Corey Clement looks primed for his turn to be the star. Despite backing up the Heisman Trophy runner-up, Clement finished the year with 949 rushing yards of his own, the 87th-best total in the country.
Even if the Badgers can create holes against Alabama’s front seven—which is loaded with talent and size once again—the Tide should come out on top. Without a legitimate passing game to threaten a questionable secondary, Wisconsin doesn’t have enough to overcome head coach Nick Saban’s squad.
Alabama might struggle early while breaking in a new quarterback and a new group of receivers, but in the end, the Tide have too much talent and should emerge victorious.
Prediction: Alabama wins 31-21.
No. 1 Ohio State at Virginia Tech
What had been perceived as an easy win—albeit the hardest of their laughable early-season slate—for the Buckeyes took a turn in favor of Virginia Tech at Big Ten media days when Ohio State announced that four big contributors were suspended for the Labor Day matchup.
The suspensions of Corey Smith, Jalin Marshall, Dontre Wilson and Joey Bosa, coupled with a recent leg injury to Noah Brown, leave the Buckeyes surprisingly thin at wide receiver and on the defensive line, arguably the two positions where they need to be the strongest against Virginia Tech.
Kendall Fuller could have a field day against an inexperienced receiving corps, and Ohio State will need Adolphus Washington and Darron Lee to generate a huge pass rush in the absence of Bosa to prevent the Hokies from repeating their success on third down from last season.
Outside of the suspensions, it is hard to ignore the environment the Buckeyes will be walking into. Some fans have called this the biggest game in Virginia Tech’s history. It's tough to argue against that sentiment despite the success the Hokies had in the early 2000s, and the Lane Stadium crowd will be a huge factor.
But Ohio State is used to playing in hostile environments and coming away victorious, even if it isn’t always convincing. The suspensions, injuries and atmosphere will give the Hokies a chance to pull off the huge upset for a second straight season, but the Buckeyes are too skilled to get caught in the trap.
Even if Virginia Tech gets up early, the Buckeyes will likely battle back and come out on top, avenging their lone loss from the 2014 season.
Prediction: Ohio State wins 27-21.
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