Breaking Down the Fantasy Value of 2015's Rookie Quarterbacks

In the 2012 NFL season, rookies Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III ranked 10th, ninth and fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy points. Cam Newton was third in fantasy points at the position as a professional freshman in 2011.

The case for excitement over rookie quarterbacks in fantasy football will be fueled by these recent results.

Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota will be forever linked for going atop the 2015 NFL draft. The comparisons will never end. For this purpose, we're evaluating their respective fantasy stock as rookie starters behind center.

Spoiler alert: Mariota is the far more intriguing fantasy prospect. The list of successful fantasy seasons from the pocket is limited, while a recent infusion of rushing rookies at the position should shift how we price those capable of reaching valuable rushing milestones.

The Case for Drafting Mariota

Since 2001, individual quarterbacks have only racked up 80 rushing attempts in a season 26 times. Thirteen different quarterbacks compiled those seasons. Mariota figures to be the 14th to hit this unique rushing milestone, which often results in fantasy profit.

Coach Ken Whisenhunt would be wise to follow through on this statement he gave to the Tennessean's John Glennon in June: "There will be (designed) opportunities, but there will also be a lot of opportunities, just like with Russell Wilson, when the play breaks down and he runs with the ball and extends the play."

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

Whisenhunt was an offensive coach for the Steelers in 2001 when Kordell Stewart produced the ninth-most fantasy points at the position despite throwing for just 14 touchdowns—in large part thanks to 537 yards rushing. Whisenhunt expounded on what he witnessed in Pittsburgh years ago in that same article to Glennon: 

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Kordell went to the Pro Bowl playing quarterback for us in Pittsburgh (in 2001), and he ran for over 500 yards but threw for over 3,000 also. A lot of those runs were not designed runs, but runs where he extended the play. But some of them were (designed) because they give you an advantage. Those are the kinds of things we will work through.

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Russell Wilson ran 118 times last season, with 56 percent of them (66 attempts) registered as designed by Pro Football Focus. If Mariota is unleashed with a 50/50 blend of designed and reactive runs and reaches 80 attempts with a reasonable assumption that he can maintain five yards per clip, that would equate to 10 extra passing touchdowns in a four-point passing format.

One of the most accurate projection models in the industry comes from Mike Clay and the staff at Pro Football Focus Fantasy (required paid subscription). They currently have Mariota set for 88 rushing attempts for 531 yards and three touchdowns in addition to passing for more than 3,600 yards to with a 20/16 touchdown-to-interception split. Simple math suggests that is just over 260 fantasy points using ESPN standard settings.

Joe Flacco was 13th at the position last season with 262 fantasy points (not far off from Andrew Luck's rookie season of 276). A lack of proven weapons in the passing game in Tennessee shouldn't deflate Mariota's market, given how conservative his passing production can be if he does hit the rushing milestones PFFF projects.

As a second fantasy arm with immense and legitimate top-10 upside at the position, in part thanks to special athleticism, Mariota is among my favorite late flyers in drafts this summer.

What About Winston?

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

The combination of Josh McCown and Mike Glennon combined for 217 fantasy points last season. The two-headed QB that was Josh Glennon would have ranked 20th at the position in fantasy production as a singular signal-caller. Jameis Winston is going 20th overall at the position in drafts this season.

The market appears to be pricing this one correctly. Without the buffer of rushing yardage to offset any natural passing-game growing pains, Winston profiles as a candidate to lead the league in interceptions. Peyton Manning led the NFL as a rookie by five picks in 1998.

With two massive weapons on the outside in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, in addition to what could be an improved effort from the backfield, Winston certainly claims some intriguing offensive artillery at his disposal.

An offensive line that ranked dead last in Pro Football Focus' pass blocking grading last season is certainly a concern. Then there are simply the limitations that history suggests, something Rich Hribar from The Fake Football succinctly explained:

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There have been just five quarterbacks to ever thrown for 3,500 yards or more in their rookie season, just two that have thrown for 25 touchdowns or more (Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson), and the highest completion percentage a rookie signal caller has ever posted on 500 or more attempts is just 60.0 percent flat by Sam Bradford in 2010. Most importantly for us, just seven rookie quarterbacks have posted over 200 fantasy points to kick off their careers. 

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In addition to Newton, Griffin, Wilson, Luck and Manning, Jim Kelly (1986) and Andy Dalton (2011) produced at least 200 fantasy points as rookies, according to Hribar. The common thread is obvious: Rushing quarterbacks can have early fantasy success.

It's Dalton that strikes me as a realistic comparison for Winston's rookie outlook, although he'll assuredly top Dalton's 516 passing attempts in 2011 if he plays the full 16 this season. Dalton was 18th among fantasy quarterbacks as a rookie with effectively conservative usage. 

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Pro Football Focus Fantasy has Winston set for 4,200 passing yards and a 21/20 touchdown-to-interception ratio on 561 attempts. Winston's usage won't be as conservative as Dalton's, but he's also a superlative arm talent in comparison.

At the best end of his outcome spectrum, I still can't project Winston as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. In years to come, Winston could be a perennial fantasy star, but I'm not buying tickets this season.

Mariota might be good right away—and for years to come—especially if he can turn his quick feet into rich rushing numbers.