Waiver Wire Week 16: Top Pickups, Drops and Expert Analysis
Before we get into one of the final waiver wires of the season, let me congratulate anyone who’s made it this far. This is championship week for the majority of leagues, and in a season with lots of unpredictability and logic going right out the window, getting to the end is an impressive feat.
Having said that, I’m not surprised to see championship teams still looking to the waiver wire for help. It may be to fill the last spot on your roster with the latest, fantasy-relevant running back, like Carolina’s Cameron Artis-Payne, or to fill an injured spot—maybe because you have to prepare for life without Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy thanks to a torn MCL.
Because we’re down to the final two weeks of the regular season, expectations shouldn’t be high for any players you pick up, especially at the running back position. Whether it’s Artis-Payne or Seattle Seahawks running back Christine Michael, it’s tough to peg either as anything more than a low-end RB2, with flex designations being more realistic.
For those who’ve been streaming quarterbacks most of the season, you should have a couple of available options with strong matchups, such as Kirk Cousins of the Washington Redskins taking on the Philadelphia Eagles in the Boxing Day showdown on Saturday night.
Once again, I doubt you’ll find any difference-makers among the best options on the waiver wire this week, but that’s OK. Sometimes, solid is good enough to win. Take it from someone who’s won championships with quarterbacks like Tim Couch, Derek Anderson and Matt Moore—a little luck and the right matchups can turn you into a fantasy football champion. Good luck!
Quarterbacks
1 of 6
Kirk Cousins, Washington
Percent Owned: ESPN – 25, Yahoo – 24
Cousins has been keeping the Washington Redskins in the playoff picture, and thanks to his big numbers over the last month and a great matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles this Saturday, he may lead you to a fantasy championship.
It’s a little shocking to hear those things, but the proof is there. Over the last four games, he’s sixth in quarterback scoring thanks to 1,140 yards, seven passing touchdown, three rushing touchdowns and just one interception. In the Week 15 victory over the Buffalo Bills, Cousins threw for 319 yards and four touchdowns in addition to posting 11 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.
The Eagles don’t have a defense that should scare you away from picking up and using Cousins, and he already threw for 290 yards and a touchdown against them back in Week 4. With both tight end Jordan Reed and wide receiver DeSean Jackson playing well, Cousins has the weapons to get the job done yet again.
Week 16 Projection: 280-290 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, one interception
Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota
Percent Owned: ESPN – 15.6, Yahoo – 37
I won’t pretend that just because Bridgewater had a great game in Week 15 he’s finally turned the corner and is ready to finish the season on a tear. If he has any chance of following up what he did last week with another good outing, it helps to have an attractive matchup with the New York Giants.
In what was one of the best games in his short career, Bridgewater completed 17 of his 20 attempts for 231 yards and four touchdowns, which would have been more than enough, but he tacked on a rushing touchdown and 17 yards on the ground. Not only did Bridgewater take advantage of a beatable matchup with the Chicago Bears, but he did so without running back Adrian Peterson at 100 percent due to an ankle injury.
Bridgewater has put together good-to-great performances over the last two weeks and should have every chance to make it three in a row with the Giants visiting this weekend. There’s nothing scary about the New York defense, so it’s up to Bridgewater to come through when the team needs him the most. If he does, the fantasy production should be there.
Week 16 Projection: 260-270 passing yards, two touchdowns, 11 rushing yards
Droppable Players: Matt Ryan
Running Backs
2 of 6
Cameron Artis-Payne, Carolina
Percent Owned: ESPN – 6.2, Yahoo – 7
Should you ever listen to coaches? Carolina Panthers head coach Ron Rivera mentioned running backs Fozzy Whittaker and Mike Tolbert as possible starters last week with Artis-Payne working into the mix in the backfield with Jonathan Stewart (foot) out. Tolbert got the start but was a non-factor, while Artis-Payne came out of the win against the New York Giants as the top option.
He ended up leading the backfield in snaps at 41 percent, putting him ahead of Whittaker at 33 percent and Tolbert at 29 percent. In fact, Artis-Payne also led the way in snaps, carries (14) and rushing yards (59). He tied Whittaker with two receptions, and no back had more than his 34 receiving yards. Those numbers lay out a clear case for Artis-Payne to be the main back once again in Week 15.
That’s important because he’d have an excellent chance to produce against the Atlanta Falcons. They have struggled against running backs for more than a month, so there’d be no concern with the matchup. Artis-Payne has potential to contribute solid numbers if you need to plug him into your lineup.
Week 16 Projection: 15 carries, 64 rushing yards, three receptions, 25 receiving yards
Christine Michael, Seattle
Percent Owned: ESPN – 8.5, Yahoo – 11
Figuring out the Seattle Seahawks’ game plan for Week 15 was brutal after they shuffled things around following the season-ending ankle injury suffered by Thomas Rawls in Week 14. They brought back both Bryce Brown and Christine Michael and cut DuJuan Harris, so with no established leader in the backfield, all of them were too tough to trust with your season on the line.
After seeing this backfield resolve those questions, Michael came out on top, carrying 16 times for 84 yards on a team-high 34 percent of the snaps. Brown wasn’t far behind with 32 percent of the snaps and nine carries for 43 yards. Michael’s 16 carries was the busiest day of his career, and posting 84 yards was also a career high.
Head coach Pete Carroll said Marshawn Lynch (abdomen) is out again this week, but Seattle is committed to running the football, and that won’t change even with the passing attack operating on a high level. In fact, the two phases of the offense work well off each other, so Michael has a shot at another busy afternoon, especially with a good matchup against the St. Louis Rams.
Week 16 Projection: 17 carries, 90 yards, one touchdown
Karlos Williams, Buffalo
Percent Owned: ESPN – 35, Yahoo – 32
Mike Gillislee, Buffalo
Percent Owned: ESPN – 0.3, Yahoo – 1
The Buffalo Bills aren’t going anywhere this season thanks to another loss in Week 15. Unfortunately, they also lost starting running back LeSean McCoy to a torn MCL and are considering him week-to-week, per Adam Schefter of ESPN. That leaves the door open for Williams or Gillislee to step in, but who gets the nod?
My initial thought was Williams based on the fact that he was the man when McCoy was hurt and ineffective earlier in the season, but a shoulder injury had sidelined him for two games coming into Week 15 and he ended up with four carries for 41 yards on 16 percent of the snaps. Meanwhile, Gillislee played 29 percent of the snaps and had 81 yards and a touchdown on four carries.
According to head coach Rex Ryan, Williams was sore but finished the game, which was a “good sign” at the end of the day. If he’s practicing most of the week, I’d lean toward using him in a great matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. If not, Gillislee is worth a shot since he has produced in recent games. This is a fluid situation, so you’ll have to monitor all week.
Week 16 Projection: To be determined based on Williams’ status
Droppable Players: DeMarco Murray, Bryce Brown
Wide Receivers
3 of 6
Rueben Randle, New York Giants
Percent Owned: ESPN – 34.4, Yahoo – 35
Randle shot to the top of the free-agent wide receiver group for this week after Odell Beckham Jr. was suspended for Sunday’s game due to his conduct during the Week 15 loss to the Carolina Panthers. The league should hear Beckham’s appeal by Wednesday, per Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News, so Randle’s fantasy status will obviously depend on Beckham’s availability.
Even with Beckham in the lineup, Randle has been a bit more productive in recent weeks. In the loss to Carolina, he caught four receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown. He’s scored in three of his last four games but has just 12 receptions over that span. Obviously, Beckham gets the majority of the production in this receiving corps, but that has to go somewhere if the NFL upholds his suspension.
Randle may have value as a sleeper no matter what happens because of the matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. Injuries have hurt their play over the last few weeks, and quarterback Eli Manning can definitely take advantage of that, with Randle possibly stepping in as his primary target.
Week 16 Projection (if Beckham out): Six receptions, 74 yards, one touchdown
Stefon Diggs, Minnesota
Percent Owned: ESPN – 55.1, Yahoo – 51
Diggs was a great find earlier this season but had been a fantasy ghost for far too long and may not have been in too many lineups in Week 15. Of course, he decided to return to fantasy relevance last week and did so right before a juicy matchup with the New York Giants in Week 16.
Diggs hauled in three of his four targets for 55 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He hadn’t scored since Week 8 and hadn’t had double-digit fantasy points in PPR formats since posting six receptions for 66 yards in Week 11. Because his numbers were so weak heading into the fantasy playoffs, he could be sitting on your waiver wire right now.
Admittedly, if you pick up and start him in your fantasy championship game, it’s chasing points, but it’s a calculated risk because the Giants have been so vulnerable against the pass. If nothing else, you can grab Diggs even if you aren’t starting him in order to block someone else from using him against you. Mind games are part of the fun.
Week 16 Projection: Five receptions, 75 yards, one touchdown
Dorial Green-Beckham, Tennessee
Percent Owned: ESPN – 16.7, Yahoo – 23
The Tennessee Titans are out of playoff contention, which isn’t a surprise, so we’re getting a better look at their future, and it certainly looks bright for Green-Beckham. Unfortunately, he will likely play the final two games without quarterback Marcus Mariota after the rookie suffered a knee sprain in Week 15, per Chris Mortensen of ESPN.
Green-Beckham deserves props for posting six receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown on nine targets against the New England Patriots in Week 15. That’s his second 100-yard effort over the last three weeks, and a lot of it came with Zach Mettenberger at quarterback in the loss to the Patriots.
With Mettenberger slated to start in Week 16, Green-Beckham shouldn’t see a major drop-off in quarterback play, at least not in terms of raw passing skills. The Houston Texans could provide a slight challenge for Green-Beckham, but he’s improved enough to be considered an upside play for the last spot in your lineup.
Week 16 Projection: Five receptions, 79 yards
Droppable Players: Stevie Johnson, Davante Adams
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Tight Ends
4 of 6
Will Tye, New York Giants
Percent Owned: ESPN – 13.3, Yahoo – 10
Last season, the New York Giants and fantasy owners saw tight end Larry Donnell emerge out of nowhere to have a productive year. With Donnell battling a neck issue, Tye has become the latest Giant to emerge, and like Donnell, he’s providing fantasy value.
Tye had five receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown on eight targets in the Week 15 loss to the Carolina Panthers. He’s scored in the last two games and has at least five receptions in four of his last five games.
The Giants could be looking for extra help from Tye if wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. doesn’t get his one-game suspension overturned. Obviously, Tye has been productive with Beckham in the lineup, so he has value either way against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16.
Week 16 Projection: Five receptions, 40 yards
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia
Percent Owned: ESPN – 52, Yahoo – 54
This season hasn’t gone to plan for Ertz or the Philadelphia Eagles in general, but it’s not over yet. The Eagles still have a chance to win the NFC East, and Ertz still has a chance to contribute to a fantasy championship. In fact, he may be part of the reason you’re still alive heading into this week.
That’s because he’s actually been a top-12 fantasy option over the last four weeks. During that time, Ertz has 15 receptions for 185 yards and two touchdowns in three games. That includes eight receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15.
The tight end position is the thinnest in the league, so when a player starts producing on a somewhat regular basis, you notice. The Eagles are low on established talent in their receiving corps, and Ertz looks like he’s caught the eye of quarterback Sam Bradford. That’s enough reason to grab and possibly use him in a decent matchup with the Washington Redskins this Saturday night.
Week 16 Projection: Six receptions, 82 yards
Droppable Players: Scott Chandler, Heath Miller, Richard Rodgers
Defenses
5 of 6
Oakland Raiders
Percent Owned: ESPN – 4.2, Yahoo – 5
Even though they lost, the Raiders had a solid performance against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. They held Rodgers to just 204 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Over the last four weeks, they’ve racked up 13 sacks, three interceptions and five fumble recoveries, which makes them a top-10 fantasy defense.
That would be reason enough to use them, but you get the bonus of a great matchup against the San Diego Chargers. Even though it had little trouble defeating the Miami Dolphins in Week 15, San Diego has still given up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses in its last four games, thanks in part to 14 sacks and three interceptions. When you add in the game is taking place in Oakland, that’s more than enough reasons to use the Raiders as your Week 16 defense.
Week 16 Projection: Four sacks, one interception, one fumble recovery, 17-20 points allowed
Kickers
6 of 6
Chris Boswell, Pittsburgh
Percent Owned: ESPN – 22.5, Yahoo – 26
Boswell has been the best kicker over the last month, which shouldn’t come as too big of a surprise since he plays on a team with one of the best offenses in football. Boswell has made 12 of his last 13 field-goal attempts, including seven of at least 40 yards. Plus, the Steelers haven’t been going for two quite as much, so Boswell also has 12 extra points over that span.
This week, the Steelers face a vulnerable Baltimore Ravens defense, so look for Pittsburgh to have its way against its AFC North rival in what should be a one-sided affair. That means even more opportunities for Boswell, who has the perfect fantasy combination of accuracy and opportunity.
Fantasy leaders provided by NFL.com. Targets provided by ESPN.com. Snap counts provided by ProFootballFocus.com.
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