Ranking the Top 10 Men's Players Heading into 2015 US Open Tennis
The 2015 U.S. Open is ready for Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and the rest of the ATP's top stars to put on a show. It's the year's final major and one last chance at a memorable piece of tennis history for whoever holds up the Big Apple’s trophy.
Our top-10 preview will rank the players according to their recent results and chances to win the championship at Flushing Meadows. It's specific to how well the players are expected to perform on hard courts and how polished their form and play have been.
We also consider the draw and provide commentary for these top contenders.
Just Missing the Cut
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World No. 7 David Ferrer is once again the poster boy for being the highest-ranked player to not crack our top 10. Like No. 11 Gilles Simon and No. 14 David Goffin, Ferrer is a consistent player and likely winner against anyone outside of the top 10, but he's more of a lightweight in the later rounds.
By contrast, 13th-ranked John Isner and No. 15 Kevin Anderson have huge serves but not enough skill and footwork to hold up a major trophy. 10th-ranked Milos Raonic also fits this group, and he has not been the same since his return to the tour after a pinched nerve in his foot.
There are also talented players such as No. 17 Grigor Dimitrov and No. 20 Dominic Thiem who have the skill and tools but lack the pedigree or proven mentality to win this year’s final major.
There are too many issues with players such as No. 24 Bernard Tomic and 37th-ranked Nick Kyrgios to take them seriously as contenders.
10. Richard Gasquet
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ATP Ranking: 12
Recent Results: Ever notice how stiff Richard Gasquet looks when he must extend or bend? It's like he's made of wood, but nevertheless, he's a well-rounded tennis athlete who has been quietly rising this summer. Despite his barrel chest and comical grimace, Gasquet is a cerebral if not aggressive player, and lately he's been trying to blend a little more of the latter with the former. He took out Marin Cilic at Cincinnati.
U.S. Open Outlook: A surprise U.S. Open semifinalist two years ago, Gasquet just matched that at Wimbledon in July. He should be ready to go out and defeat first-round opponent Thanasi Kokkinakis for the second straight tournament, but it could be a dangerous match if the kid puts it together.
Otherwise, it's easy to like Gasquet as an even match against possible quarterfinalist Tomas Berdych. But it's not so easy to buy his chances of upsetting Roger Federer in the semifinals.
9. Tomas Berdych
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ATP Ranking: 6
Recent Results: Tomas Berdych is the ultimate boxing talent but with a glass jaw. Recently, he's needed an ice pack for that jaw because he was put away by Donald Young and Alexandr Dolgopolov. There's nothing in 2015, not even a coaching addition with Dani Vallverdu, that lends confidence to the idea Berdych is poised to win a major. A gradual decline is more likely imminent.
U.S. Open Outlook: Someday, they will do a remake of Ivan Reitman's comedy Twins and replace Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny DeVito with Berdych and David Ferrer. They win often at small tournaments and frequently advance just fine to major quarterfinals, but then they are sorely exposed.
Even Roger Federer will be glad he is in the "Berdych" quarterfinal, although he might want to remember the Czech did eliminate him in the 2012 U.S. Open.
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8. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
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ATP Ranking: 19
Recent Results: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga probably should be playing a lot better than a 16-10 record in 2015 including recent losses to Fernando Verdasco and Steve Johnson at Cincinnati and Winston-Salem, respectively. There's not much that inspires hope that he will contend at the U.S. Open.
U.S. Open Outlook: Accepting his spotty play this year (and we won't even bring up France's Davis Cup loss to the United Kingdom), there are still a few things that make Tsonga an instant contender:
- Would we expect David Ferrer, Grigor Dimitrov and Tomas Berdych to have a better chance?
- His draw is not that hard, and it's reasonable to see him get to the semifinals.
- There is that streak he showed last year at the Rogers Cup when he destroyed a great lineup.
Just suppose that he does channel his best tennis into the U.S. Open. It's not impossible, right?
7. Rafael Nadal
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ATP Ranking: 8
Recent Results: The clay-court title Rafael Nadal won in Hamburg seems like a distant memory, but it might be the last hurrah for a while. Nadal continued his lackluster play in 2015 with meek losses to Kei Nishikori (Montreal) and Feliciano Lopez (Cincinnati). The hard reality is that he has not improved during the last several months, and there is no sign of the old Nadal magic.
U.S. Open Outlook: He gets to be at No. 7 because there is the off chance he suddenly goes retro and storms through Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals, eventually meeting up with and crushing old foe Roger Federer in the U.S. Open final for their only ever meeting at Flushing Meadows. Or would you bet that Tomas Berdych finally gets a major?
Maybe the former buzz surrounding Nadal is now crickets because there is no more wondering about comebacks from injuries. The mystery is gone like an enigmatic female pop star who suddenly decides to let the tabloids dig into her personal life.
Tennis is definitely more interesting when Nadal is at his highest level, but it's also more interesting when he is not playing than when he is playing stripped of his superpowers. The only important question is whether he can get them back again for another major title.
Don't count on the 2015 U.S. Open to be his road back.
6. Kei Nishikori
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ATP Ranking: 4
Recent Results: The questions seem to dog Kei Nishikori whenever he gets banged up with injuries, which is frequently enough. After an impressive title at Washington, D.C., he swept through Rogers Cup opponents Pablo Andujar, David Goffin and Rafael Nadal as if he were mopping up a small water spill on a hot tennis court. Then he hit the wall against Andy Murray in the semifinals and was suddenly reeling from a "slight hip injury." This followed his recovery from a calf strain prior to D.C. and preceded his withdrawal to Cincinnati.
U.S. Open Outlook: He does deserve to be ranked ahead of Nadal after dismantling the Spanish star a couple of weeks ago, but there are other concerns. Has he become too methodical with his angles, too careful against the bigger stars when his margins are easy against those outside the top 10?
Nishikori will need the perfect storm to match or top last year's run to the U.S. Open final. It's hard to see him with enough stamina to scramble on defense full tilt against power players, and that's if he makes it through a seemingly easy but tricky draw for him.
Benoit Paire could be trouble in the first round, and potential matches such as Radek Stepanek, Sam Groth, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Tommy Robredo or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will wear on him if he gets through. There's very little chance he defends last year's points.
5. Marin Cilic
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ATP Ranking: 9
Recent Results: The return to North America has been a bust. Although he suffered no shame in losing to Kei Nishikori (a player he crushed at the 2014 U.S. Open) at Washington D.C., Marin Cilic has followed this up with two more losses in three matches to Bernard Tomic and Richard Gasquet.
U.S. Open Outlook: Cilic gets props and a higher rating for winning last year's trophy, but he's mostly been a disappointment, even if injuries are not considered. He has not made a leap forward to be a constant contender. He's still looking up at workmanlike Stan Wawrinka. Cilic is looking more like Juan Martin del Potro, but we'll know for sure in another couple of years if he rises or fades.
4. Stan Wawrinka
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ATP Ranking: 5
Recent Results: There was the nasty experience and aftermath at Montreal that Stan Wawrinka would like to forget, and then Novak Djokovic crushed him a week later in Cincinnati. Meanwhile, he lost out on a chance to hold his No. 4 seed and control the weaker bottom quarter of the top half of the draw. Instead, he could potentially have to get through Andy Murray and Roger Federer to get a crack at Djokovic in the final.
U.S. Open Outlook: By now, the formula for Wawrinka is well known. He must keep his unforced errors down when teeing off against first-week opponents, and then he must find his championship zone when it's time to play the very best.
Wawrinka's rough recent weeks might help him more effectively channel his focus and energy into tennis. He knows his shelf life as a contender could expire at any time. Will it end now, next year or a few years hence? Becoming older should sharpen his perspective and understanding of his opportunities. He has the big strokes to win the U.S. Open even if the surface is faster than at Melbourne or France.
3. Andy Murray
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ATP Ranking: 3
Recent Results: After flopping as the featured attraction at Washington, D.C., Andy Murray peaked with his biggest win of the year, a Rogers Cup championship win over Novak Djokovic. It was important for Murray to win a grueling match against his top rival if only to resurrect a semblance of competitive confidence for major titles.
U.S. Open Outlook: Of course, it's typical for Murray's career that the instant he wins something huge such as the Rogers Cup, he's vanquished and overshadowed by Roger Federer's more glamorous whipping of Djokovic a week later. It also exposed that Murray, for all of his Canadian success, still has a Federer problem. And there's no question Djokovic is not going to roll over anytime soon.
He's No. 2-4 depending on if you value his consistency or his comparatively lighter weapons against his legendary rivals. If Murray is to win the U.S. Open, he's going to need some help, whether that means someone else eliminating some of the big stars or that his best comes against their subpar results. He could win it all or go out in the first round against Nick Kyrgios, although the former is more likely than the latter.
2. Roger Federer
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ATP Ranking: 2
Recent Results: There was plenty of rest and one perfect week at Cincinnati for Roger Federer's 2015 U.S. Open blueprint. Not only did he vanquish Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, but the Swiss star also looks like he is once again in peak form heading into a major. He reinforces his place ahead of Murray, and he will head the bottom of the bracket.
U.S. Open Outlook: Federer may not pay much attention to his draw—chaos has a way of turning projections upside down—but he has to love his cakewalk in the first week. By the fourth round, he could face a big server such as John Isner or Ivo Karlovic, but Federer likes to cut down the big trees. Tomas Berdych or Richard Gasquet could be his first real threat in the quarterfinals, but a semifinal with Murray would favor the Swiss.
One potential distraction for Federer could be the media's latest excitement in fawning over the Swiss legend. It would be another letdown if all of the pro-Federer anticipation came to an end because of an early-round loss. If you are superstitious or nervous, you might want to beware of being too optimistic or confident that he will win No. 18. It's been the same story for a few years running.
1. Novak Djokovic
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ATP Ranking: 1
Recent Results: Some fans took issues with the notion that Novak Djokovic was labeled a "loser" last weekend following his second consecutive loss in a Masters 1000 final. A great result, sure, if you are just about anyone else. The reality is that his North American tour has been a step back, just as his career history has often shown. He could very well fight off the residual effects of fatigue or nagging injuries, but it's clear the Serbian will have to lift his game to the level of dominance he showed at Australia and London.
U.S. Open Outlook: In Star Trek's The Wrath of Khan, the eponymous villain became consumed with revenge. He was ultimately defeated by a more clever and resourceful hero in Captain Kirk. Djokovic expressed anger over his recent form, but he will need patience and levelheaded brilliance to strike back at Andy Murray and Roger Federer.
It's rarely easy for Djokovic to win his majors, so expect at least a dogfight or two if he does indeed prevail and hold three major trophies in 2015.
ATP Rankings accurate as of August 30.
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