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2026 College Football Playoff Bubble Watch After Week 11

Adam KramerNov 14, 2026

We know that more chaos is coming. That part is a given.

A season that has produced an avalanche of upsets, one after the next, isn't done. Where they'll come from and what it means in the grand scheme of our postseason remains unknown, but things will look much different a few weeks from now.

Outside of Georgia, very little in college football is assumed. The Bulldogs are a definitive favorite to win the national championship. The rest seems very much in flux.

What is clear, however, is that the bubble will be hotly contested. Teams with two and three losses will be stacked up against one another and the euphoria and disappointment for programs will be palpable.

As the season winds down, here's a look at the sport's most fascinating bubble teams, where the resumes sit after Week 11 and what's ahead.

Wake Forest

1 of 5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 14 Wake Forest vs SMU

Record: 9-1

Most Recent Playoff Ranking: No. 13

Just how good has Wake Forest been of late? Well, in the last four games, the Demon Deacons have outscored their opponents 218-21.

Granted, those four teams included Cal, Virginia, Merrimack and SMU, but the performance has been noteworthy regardless. The team's one loss this year came earlier in the season against Miami, and the game was close enough.

The team is balanced, has a tremendous quarterback in Gio Lopez and has a favorable schedule remaining. Wake Forest plays Georgia Tech and Duke to close out the year.

With two more wins, there might not be all that much debate to be had. In fact, if Wake Forest were to make it to that game and avenge its loss against Miami, it would be guaranteed a spot.

As we weave our way toward teams with two and even three losses, however, we must first assess this team's case. The strength of schedule is dearly lacking, although it probably won't matter.

Well, unless Wake drops one of the next two games. Then the case is over.

Oregon

2 of 5
Michigan v Oregon

Record: 7-3

Most Recent Playoff Ranking: No. 16

The fact that we're using "Oregon" and "bubble" in the same sentence speaks volumes.

Given how bad the season went for the Ducks for a good chunk of the year, the recovery that has taken place, through backup quarterbacks and coordinator changes, is just as unlikely.

Yes, Dante Moore is out for the year. Yes, the team we thought we were getting is nowhere to be found. But Oregon is, at the very least, in the mix.

That's the good news. The bad news is the Big Ten hasn't exactly dazzled this year, and wins over Ohio State, USC and Michigan, which it beat handedly on Saturday, aren't nearly what we thought they'd be. And that ugly, double-digit loss to Illinois is still on the resume.

That loss could very well define the Ducks' playoff faith, especially with extremely winnable games against Michigan State and Washington remaining.

Again, the fact that we're having this conversation is astonishing. But for the Ducks to truly leapfrog other hopeful teams, especially those in the SEC, a lot of help is needed.

BYU

3 of 5
Baylor v BYU

Record: 8-2

Most Recent Playoff Ranking: No. 10

BYU's dominating win over Baylor on Saturday was needed. In fact, like most bubble teams, optics the rest of the way are going to be vital.

We could very well be heading toward a familiar situation. The state of the Big 12, and whether the Cougars can play (and win) the conference, could also play a factor. There's a world where BYU plays its way squarely into the tournament.

There's also a good chance we're left comparing resumes, and BYU's is a mixed bag.

Wins over Arizona and, of course, Notre Dame are really nice wins. The loss to UCF will be the one that stings weeks from now.

Games against Kansas and Cincinnati are left, and BYU should be a sizable favorite in both matchups.

That win over Notre Dame should age well. If it does, BYU could very well find its way in.

Iowa

4 of 5
Wisconsin v Iowa

Record: 8-2

Most Recent Playoff Ranking: No. 15

Ah, yes. The Iowa Hawkeyes.

Let's be clear, Kirk Ferentz's team is probably in need of a little help. That part should go without saying.

But Iowa has continued to win football games, and a dominating win over Purdue on Saturday, while not a huge resume boost, put the Hawkeyes one step closer.

The resume is not pristine, but it's not awful, either. Solid wins over Iowa State, Wisconsin, Washington and Northwestern will help. That ugly loss against Minnesota, however, will not.

The loss against Ohio State? That happens. The Buckeyes were at full strength, and the team was much different than it was not. Still, Ohio State's regression is less than ideal.

First things first, Iowa must win at Illinois and beat Nebraska at home. Neither game is a given, although the Hawkeyes should be favored in both games. If that happens, and the SEC continues to beat itself up, much like it did throughout Week 11, look out.

Iowa's bubble journey is very much alive.

Ohio State

5 of 5
Northwestern v Ohio State

Record: 8-2

Most Recent Playoff Ranking: No. 20

Now, let's talk through this one.

Ohio State has not looked like a College Football Playoff team in some time. Back-to-back losses to USC and Oregon just a few short weeks ago put this team beyond the bubble. In fact, many are questioning whether Ryan Day is the one to lead this team moving forward.

But Ohio State's resume has a few things working for it. For starters, this team played Texas, a legitimate out-of-conference opponent. This particular selection committee seems partial to strength of schedule, and the Buckeyes have that.

The biggest variable, however, is quarterback Julian Sayin. With the QB, Ohio State is a different team. If Sayin is available for the postseason, the committee has a unique situation to evaluate.

First, Ohio State must win at Nebraska, which is no easy feat. It'll have to beat Michigan after that, which seems more than feasible.

Regardless of what the committee thinks about Sayin, Ohio State needs an abundance of help.