Expert CFB Locks, Predictions for Texas vs. LSU and Week 11 Biggest Games

Last week, it all felt so big on paper. Big matchups, huge outcomes. We circled the date six months ago, and it delivered.

This week, the buffet of games offers something different—something a bit more chaotic and unknown. It might not have the same high-profile feel, but don't let the slate of games do that.

Things are about to get very weird. And we love weird.

When it happens, we tend to do very well with our picks. When it doesn't, and it really didn't last week, we don't necessarily produce massive weeks.

With that acknowledged, we didn't post a winning week for the first time in a month. We missed a .500 week by a half-point. We didn't love what the officials did in the Missouri-Texas game, either.

Still, we're resilient. Onwards we go.

On paper, we love this slate. We're just going to say it now. Hopefully, it proves to be true.

Last Week's Record: 4-6

Year to Date: 50-45-1

All point spreads courtesy of FanDuel

LSU (-4.5) vs. Texas

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Lane Kiffin's facial expressions last week said it all.

Shock? 

Disappointment? 

Sadness? 

We're thinking it was a solid mix.

LSU's lackluster showing against Alabama did include some positives. The Tigers tallied 457 yards of offense, while limiting Alabama to just 285 yards. Quarterback Sam Leavitt, who accounted for most of those yards, created some magical plays.

Two turnovers and an ugly fourth-down showing proved to be the difference. Sometimes, that happens. It just happened at a terrible time.

Moving forward, as long as the Tigers' hearts aren't completely broken, the team is still full of talent and potential, especially at home.

As for Texas, Arch Manning was spectacular last week against Missouri. It might have been his best collegiate game. It was refreshing to see the team let him throw the ball downfield.

The officiating certainly helped Texas, without a doubt. But the team—and the quarterback—deserve a lot of credit.

Despite what last week showed, LSU is still one of the most talented teams in college football. Texas is as well, which is what makes this such a delightful matchup.

But we like LSU, no matter what Kiffin's facial expressions told us. While the outcome against Alabama wasn't a fluke by any means, look for the Tigers to right a lot of wrongs on Saturday.

The Pick: LSU (-4.5)

Texas A&M (+2.5) vs. Tennessee

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A team with legitimate playoff hopes, coming off a convincing win, is a small favorite against one of the nation's biggest disappointments, coming off yet another disappointing loss.

You know precisely where the public will be sprinting. If you read this weekly staple at all, you know we'll be cruising in the opposite direction.

Granted, we've done this with Texas A&M before. Despite the team's issues, the oddsmakers haven't lost faith. Although if you played the Aggies last week against South Carolina—a game they battled through—maybe you have.

Texas A&M was covering essentially the whole game. Until it wasn't.

As for Tennessee, the Vols delivered a suffocating win over Kentucky in Week 10. The defense was excellent once again. The offense, behind a strong running game, did enough.

With that said, the last two road games the Vols have played haven't gone great. They nearly lost to Arkansas. Then, they lost outright to South Carolina, failing to cover both times.

Will A&M burn us again? Perhaps. But we're back on them regardless.

The Pick: Texas A&M (+2.5)

Arizona (+2.5) vs. Utah

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The Utes just delivered one of the biggest wins of the season against BYU. On the other side, Arizona needed a miracle win as more than a touchdown favorite against TCU to keep its excellent season intact.

Despite a wild week of play for both teams, the oddsmakers see this game being close. We agree.

In terms of football hangovers, the potential looms large. Utah just beat its rival in a thrilling comeback.

Will that win and the celebration that ensued linger beyond last Saturday? 

We've seen it plenty of times thus far. It wouldn't shock to see it again. It's worth noting that the Utes are an absurd 7-1 against the spread this season. (We fully acknowledge this excellence while still fading said excellence.)

Arizona has covered the spread only three times, although the Wildcats have played better at home. Perhaps last week's TCU performance, which needed a special-teams gaffe at the end to happen, was the ultimate lookahead spot.

Either way, the oddsmakers see this team as competitive. The defense has been solid. The offense, led by quarterback Noah Fifita, can make plays.

All of this sets up a fascinating matchup that will ultimately deliver Utah its first loss.

The Pick: Arizona (+2.5)

Oklahoma State (-3.5) vs. Texas Tech

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If you like points, this football game is for you.

With a total in the low 70s, each team should find success on offense. Oklahoma State is currently No. 3 in the country in scoring offense; Texas Tech, which has new life since Thomas Castellanos took over at quarterback, is No. 14 in the same category.

The last time the Red Raiders played on the road, it didn't go well. Cincinnati blasted Texas Tech, giving this group its first and only loss of the year.

Granted, Tech has flirted with more losses. But to the team's credit, they come into this game with postseason hopes still intact.

That could change this week, though Oklahoma State has had its share of issues along the way. The Pokes are one of the most explosive teams in America and still have three losses.

All three of those losses came on the road, which could explain why the oddsmakers posted the line they did. Oklahoma State is unbeaten at home, covering every game in Stillwater.

Having quarterback Drew Mestemaker has made a world of difference. Mestemaker has scored 14 touchdowns in his last three games and 32 touchdowns this season.

He could give this Texas Tech defense fits. OK State is in a position to win this one by more than a touchdown.

The Pick: Oklahoma State (-3.5)

Penn State (-9.5) vs. Minnesota

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Minnesota only allowed UCLA to complete eight passes last week. The only issue is that those eight completions resulted in 303 passing yards.

Woof. 

Oh, the Gophers battled against the unbeaten Bruins; they really did. But each time the game got close, UCLA delivered a big play on cue. 

We should know; we were on Minnesota last week.

After disheartening losses in consecutive weeks, the Gophers will head to Happy Valley to take on a Penn State squad with a little momentum at last. After an ugly loss to Michigan, the Nittany Lions handled Purdue and conquered Washington on the road.

Those teams aren't exactly juggernauts, although the development feels noteworthy. Quarterback Rocco Becht finally looks settled in. Running back Carson Hansen has given this team some juice.

Naturally, many will likely flock to the underdog here, given the number of points being offered. After such a difficult, emotional stretch, however, this road trip is asking a lot of a team that might be running out of energy.

The line seems to suggest Penn State is finding itself at long last. We don't disagree.

The Pick: Penn State (-9.5)

Other Games on the Card

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Arkansas (+7.5) vs. South Carolina

Give the Gamecocks credit for gutting out a tough win against Texas A&M, although LaNorris Sellers' ankle is worth watching. As for Arkansas, it has battled against Tennessee and Auburn over the past four games. Don't be shocked when this is tight.

Iowa State (-3) vs. Cincinnati

The Cyclones are a different team at home. Unfortunately, they've played in Ames only once in their last four games, beating Oklahoma State. Back home, look for Iowa State to reach .500 against a team that has lost all three road games this season.

Boston College (+28.5) at Notre Dame

Talk about letdown spots. After beating Miami, the Irish play at home against a severely overmatched opponent before taking on SMU the following week, which suddenly feels like a very big game. Too many points. It's that simple.

Temple (-2.5) vs. UAB

A team with two wins is favored over a team fighting for bowl eligibility. Yes, Temple has lost four straight, while UAB has won two of its last three games. The Blazers, however, have lost all four road games. We expect that trend to continue.

Washington State (-8.5) vs. Colorado State

How bad is the Colorado State defense, you ask? Well, the Rams are nearly a double-digit underdog to one-win Washington State. The Cougars' schedule hasn't been exactly favorable, though this is a week to get right.