Harry Kane has done it!
The Bayern Munich and England striker was named the Men's Ballon d'Or winner on Monday, beating Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappe to the award that felt like it could have gone to any of the top three.
Football waits for nobody. Kane may still be celebrating, but it's time to see if he can do it again next season, and if not, who may snatch the crown from his clutches.
The Favourite: Lamine Yamal
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Let's start with Lamine Yamal. While he looked disappointed to miss out on the award on Monday night, the 19-year-old will be many onlookers' favourite to capture the biggest individual prize in the sport next year.
Realistically, he also has much of his career ahead of him to win it.
The three-time Young Talent award winner has started this season in ridiculous fashion. His 10 goals and 10 assists in 13 games across La Liga and the Champions League only tell part of the story, though.
He is undoubtedly a leader in excellent Barcelona and Spain teams, a player who demands the ball and seems capable of producing something incredible every time he's in possession.
Yamal is also a proponent of a dying art; one of those footballers who still tries stuff. That piece of skill against Galatasaray in the Champions League was not only remarkable for its creativity and execution, but it was also a reminder of how such flamboyancy has been drilled out of modern footballers.
The Closest Competition: Kane and Mbappe
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In truth, next year's top three is likely to look very similar to this year's final list. Both Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane should be considered Yamal's main threats once more—although one factor could weigh far heavier than it did in the 2026 voting: whoever wins the Champions League.
The 2026 vote was so hard to call because Paris Saint-Germain took the prize without an individual putting up the season Ousmane Dembele did the year before. The French team's highest-ranked player was Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who finished sixth. Neither looks set to challenge this year as things stand, with ongoing injury issues plaguing PSG's start to the season.
Real Madrid's inability to compete for the aforementioned club competition has harmed Mbappe's odds in recent times. He is electric, with a goalscoring output that is keeping Jose Mourinho's inconsistent side in the La Liga title race.
Mbappe's brace in El Clásico underlined the hunger of a man whom many expected to emerge as the leading Ballon d'Or contender after Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo's era of dominance. Those grittier goals will be just as important to his case as the spectacular ones, particularly if they return Los Blancos to some kind of domination in Spain or on the continent.
Kane doesn't have that issue—Bayern will remain German champions. His evolution from a consistent goalscorer into one of the world's best playmakers played a huge role in him being recognised this year. He nearly registered an assist directly from a goal-kick in the recent draw with Arsenal.
The England international isn't as flashy as Yamal or Mbappe, but his footballing IQ and ability to roam while maintaining influence are second to none. He may need Bayern to capture the Champions League to make it a repeat, though.
The Outsiders: Raphinha, Olise and Bellingham
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Right now, it feels like certain teammates of next year's expected top three should be considered the outsiders to the throne.
Yamal's output directly links to that of Raphinha, whose stunning 2024-25 season somehow only landed him a fifth-place finish, when he really should have been considered top three at the very least.
The Brazilian criticised the voting system after that, then had an injury-ravaged 2025-26 season. He's thriving again—with 15 goals and three assists in 11 La Liga and Champions League games so far—but he needs to stay fit to have any chance. He looks the best of the rest as things stand.
Michael Olise may have something to say about that, though. His progression since moving to Bayern is nothing short of remarkable, summed up by 27 goals and 34 assists in 51 starts and 15 substitute appearances in the Bundesliga heading into this season. He's already on six goals and three assists in six starts as we move into November.
While Olise is spectacular, he suffers a bit from not being Bayern's bona fide, out-and-out main man. Each of the outsider picks arguably has one player ahead of them if you were ranking quality at their club alone.
Olise would need to seriously outperform Kane to finish above him. He's capable of doing it through his hard work and coverage of the pitch, but it seems a tough bet that he'd pick up more votes unless he were undeniable.
The same can be said for Real Madrid's Jude Bellingham, who should be considered further back than Olise in the overall chase. The 23-year-old is the beating heart of Madrid and England, a terrific match-winner who drives his team forward, but the presence of Mbappe at Madrid and Kane with England makes things complicated.
The Wild Cards: Haaland, Doue and More
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Does it seem strange to suggest Erling Haaland as a wild card?
Manchester City's goal machine finished eighth in the 2026 vote and already has 13 goals in 11 games this season. However, my gut is saying he could vastly outperform many of the players on this list and still not receive the support needed to lift the trophy.
The reasoning is twofold. Firstly, Haaland isn't an all-round player like many of those who finish above him. While he does contribute to buildup play more than people give him credit for, he's the finisher. He is quickly criticised when he doesn't score, with some questioning his value to the team if he's not consistently impacting the scoreline (which, so far this year, he is).
Then there's the uncertainty surrounding Manchester City. An independent commission found the club guilty of 114 of the 115 charges relating to Premier League financial rules, but City maintain their innocence and have appealed. Any potential sanctions remain to be determined.
How the case might affect Haaland's Ballon d'Or chances remains speculative. His individual performances will give voters plenty to weigh up regardless.
Realistically, beyond the Norway international, there are few others who fit into this category.
Dembele and Kvaratskhelia's recent injury issues may leave room for Desire Doue. Arsenal would simply have to win the Champions League for Declan Rice to be considered. Then there are players such as Rodri and Vitinha, who probably fall behind colleagues if their clubs win it all.
While not impossible, it would take something spectacular to oust any of this year's top three.
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