The men's Ballon d'Or winner for 2026 will be revealed in London, England, on Monday.
With no clear winner this year, the debate over who should take home the trophy has been more varied than usual. After the previous update to these rankings in July following the World Cup, the latest odds suggest Ousmane Dembele, Jude Bellingham and Michael Olise have dropped out of serious consideration.ย
Harry Kane remains the favorite, and he could become the first Englishman to win the award since Michael Owen in 2001.ย
Read on to find out who else is in contention, and let us know who you think should win in the comments section on the B/R App.
6. Rodri
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Odds: 40-1
July B/R Ranking: 4th
Rodri won the Golden Ball as the best player at the World Cup. He played almost every minute for the tournament winners, Spain, and looked to have reclaimed the form that saw him win the Ballon d'Or in 2024.
It has not been a smooth path back to the top of the game, though. Rodri's ACL injury in late 2024 saw him miss eight months of action, and as is to be expected with a major injury, the midfielder didn't look the same player for some time after making that comeback.
All that led to him being out of consideration for the Ballon d'Or prior to the World Cup. Even after being a key factor in Manchester City's unsuccessful late charge for the Premier League title, Rodri just hadn't quite hit the pre-injury levels that made him so special.
That changed in the United States, though, where Rodri's abilities both in and out of possession were crucial in Spain's victory.ย
As Andrew Beasley wrote for The Guardian, "Rodri's influence is best highlighted by Spain's record with Opta-defined big chances. They allowed only five in their eight matches. Cape Verde's one came from a corner after Rodri had been substituted, while Darwin Nรบรฑez failed to make proper contact when another came his way in the Uruguay match.
"The other three, none of which occurred after the quarter-final, were all headers. For two, the creating cross came from Spain's left, not Rodri's side. Teams very occasionally played around their midfield but never through it."
In a year without an obvious winner, the voting panel could do worse than to select a player who shined brightest on the biggest stage.ย
-Calum Rogers
5. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
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Odds:ย 40-1
July B/R ranking: Unranked
While Khvicha Kvaratskhelia didn't factor into B/R's last set of Ballon d'Or rankings, the bookies are surprisingly buoyant regarding the Georgian's prospects, putting him as the fifth favorite above World Cup winner Rodri and Bayern Munich and France magician Michael Olise.
The absolutely horrendous injury that Kvara suffered in Paris Saint-Germain's 4-2 Champions League victory over Barcelona will sadly not be softened by a Ballon d'Or trophy, though, with the Georgian just a stone's throw away from a podium spot.
Even more unfortunately, that ACL injury will likely keep the 25-year-old out of action for the best part of a year, effectively ending his bid for the award in 2027.
However, he can look back on the 2025-26 campaign with great satisfaction, having doubled up on his career winner's medals in both Ligue 1 and the Champions League.ย
His nation missing out on the World Cup ultimately did the most damage to his case for the golden orb, with Kvara unable to put his talents on display for a global audience to enjoy.
At club level, though, he was typically electric. Despite PSG boss Luis Enrique effectively saving him for European actionโlimiting him to just 28 appearances and 18 starts in the French top flightโhe still grabbed eight goals and four assists in league play, coming in at a goal involvement every 123.5 minutes.
But he truly made his presence felt in the best club competition on the planet, grabbing 10 goals and seven assists in 16 games. In fact, he only failed to make an impact on the scoresheet in three of those appearances.
Kvaratskhelia scored two vital goals in the 5-4 barnburner against Bayern Munich in the semifinal first leg, and he added an assist in the second fixture. He also popped up with a helper in the final against Arsenal, which finished 1-1 after 90 minutes.ย
Those efforts were more than enough to earn the Georgian the Champions League's Player of the Season award.ย
Aside from the counting stats, Kvara consistently made defenders tremble as he burst down the wing, using his lightning pace, quick feet, smart movement, and sheer force of will to make it into the box before providing a game-defining moment.ย
-Leo Collis
4. Lionel Messi
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Odds:ย 14-1
July B/R ranking: 2nd
It was difficult to know what to expect from Lionel Messi at the World Cup, with his time in Major League Soccer making it tough to judge how much he had left to give at the highest level.ย
The answer to those questions was fairly emphatic, though: His 12 goal contributions placed him second only behind Kylian Mbappรฉ, and he inspired Argentina back to the final four years after leading them to the trophy.ย
The performance was enough to thrust him into Ballon d'Or contention despite playing at a lower level of club competition in Major League Soccer. That he also has 37 goal contributions in 27 MLS games this season is essentially a footnote to his case, and even with a World Cup performance that surpassed some of the highest expectations, the arguments for Messi largely relied on sentiment more than anything else.
The eight-time Ballon d'Or winner has retired from international duty with Argentina, and with whatever is left of his club career likely to be spent playing in MLS or a similar level of competition elsewhere, this is likely the 39-year-old's last crack at taking home a ninth award.
It wouldn't be the first time a subjective honor has been awarded for such reasons, nor would it be the last. But the latest odds suggest Messi's legendary career achievements in combination with an admirable swansong at the World Cup aren't enough to put him above contemporaries still playing in the Champions League and other top club competitions.
-Calum Rogers
Kylian Mbappe
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Odds: 8-1
July B/R ranking: 5th
Kylian Mbappรฉ won't be entirely pleased with how his 2025-26 season played out, with the 27-year-old coming away empty-handed in terms of silverware.ย
However, the oddsmakers still have him as the third favorite to win the Ballon d'Or, thanks to the Frenchman securing the Golden Boot in La Liga, the Champions League and the World Cup.
Across all competitions at club level, he scored 42 goals in 44 matches. In 16 games for France during the campaign, he bagged 16.ย
A hit rate of practically a goal a game for both club and country is absolutely absurd. But while the Ballon d'Or is essentially an award given to the best single footballer on the planet, that lack of team trophies almost certainly puts him out of contention for the top prize.ย
It's kind of strange that the Frenchman has only found himself on the podium once in his decorated career, with a third-place finish in 2023. He has been consistently phenomenal since his breakout season in 2016-17, and he's often talked about among the best players the game has ever seen. But the Ballon d'Or has so far proved elusive.
He's still got plenty of time in his career to claim the prize, and he's started off this season in scintillating form. However, Real Madrid are already six points behind Barcelona in La Liga, and another trophyless campaign might yet again put the award just out of reach in 2027.ย
2. Lamine Yamal
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Odds: 7-4
July B/R ranking: 3rd
It's only a matter of time until Lamine Yamal grabs the Ballon d'Or, and there is every chance it could happen in 2026.
While the player at the top of this list is the consensus favorite to scoop the 2026 prize, so was Vinicius Junior in 2024, and Rodri still snuck in ahead of the Brazilian to claim the award.ย
It's mad to think about everything Yamal has already achieved in his career, and the 2025-26 season was another banner year for the 19-year-old superstar.
Yamal scored 16 goals and added 12 assists as Barcelona cruised to the La Liga title, and he added 10 and four, respectively, in the Blaugrana's Champions League run, which ended at the quarterfinal stage.
And then we have the World Cup. While it was difficult to pick out a true top performer for a trophy-winning Spain side that was built on the collective, Yamal was still a standout in the knockout stages, having been eased back into action in the group phase.ย
In the semifinal, he spooked France left-back Lucas Digne into making a wild swing in the penalty box, which connected with Yamal's thigh and sent him tumbling. The resulting spot-kick was coolly dispatched by Mikel Oyarzabal, opening the scoring in an eventual 2-0 win.ย
In the final against Argentina, he was once again a terror, with a game-high four shots on goal and the most dribbles (5), according to Fotmob.
Headline performances in North America throughout the competition would have helped his case for the Ballon d'Or, but as it is, he ended the tournament with just a goal and an assist, which is an unfortunate mark against him in an otherwise brilliant summer (and season).ย
-Leo Collis
1. Harry Kane
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Odds: 1-5
July B/R Ranking: 1st
Harry Kane has 52 goal contributions in all of 2026. That's nine more than second-placed Michael Olise. His 41 goals also put him first among players who also play in Top 5 club leagues, with second-placed Raphinha trailing by 13 goals.
He's also won the Bundesliga and the DFB-Pokal, and reached the semi-finals of the World Cup and the Champions League.ย
While those last two disappointments have prevented him from being a runaway leader, the raw figures are convincing enough for Kane to be the favorite to win the award. This is far from the first incredible statistical season in Kane's career, though, and he does seem to have found an extra level of performance that has put him on the level of a potential Ballon d'Or winner.
Maybe it is simply that the award can no longer be dominated by Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, allowing others to shine brighter in their absence. But Kane's role as a playmaker for both England and Bayern Munich cannot be underestimated.
In a timely reminder of that quality, Kane delivered an incredible pass for Alphonso Davies to score against Arsenal on Wednesday in the Champions League. Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta said Kane found "a space that doesn't exist" for the assist, and it's that consistent level of precision as both a scorer and creator that have put Kane at the top of this list.
-Calum Rogers
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