Expert CFB Locks, Predictions for Ole Miss vs. Texas and Week 8's Biggest Games

If not for one single step, last week's picks would have been dominant.

But college football sometimes works like that. One minute you're breaking free of the defensive back, eyeing a walk-off win in one of the biggest games of the year. The next, your foot inexplicably lands out of bounds, and everything goes up in flames.

It was that close for Indiana last week against Ohio State. We were also that close to a 7-2 week, although 6-3 will do just fine.

As for Week 8, consider us intrigued. It doesn't have the same buffet of massive matchups on paper, although those are normally the weeks that deliver. After such a bananas Saturday, maybe it's just going to be one of those seasons.

Here's to hoping.

As for another week of winners, here they are.

Last Week's Record: 6-3

Year to Date: 33-33-1

All point spreads courtesy of FanDuel

Texas (-3) vs. Ole Miss

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Oh, it's a mess in Austin. Let's not paint this picture any differently.

Following an emphatic come-from-behind win over Ohio State, Texas played a lackluster game against UTSA and followed it up with two ugly losses to Oklahoma and Florida.

Steve Sarkisian spent a week defending Arch Manning; now he's giving backup quarterback KJ Lacey Jr., who has thrown a grand total of nine passes across his two seasons with the program, more reps.

Despite the losses and the drama, Texas is favored over a team coming off (arguably) its best win all season.

Ole Miss clobbered Missouri, which was playing fantastic football coming into last week. Perhaps most importantly, the Rebels limited the Mizzou offense to just three points.

So, why do this? 

Why should we back a team in disarray despite all the recent data points?

Beyond our general contrarian style, Ole Miss didn't exactly dazzle in its only true road test thus far against Florida, allowing the Gators to rack up nearly 500 yards of offense. While the Longhorns have issues in all facets, playing on the road in this conference is never easy.

Texas, questions aplenty, finds a way.

The Pick: Texas (-3)

South Carolina (-2.5) vs. Tennessee

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From one fascinating point spread in the SEC to another, enter South Carolina-Tennessee.

The Vols, currently. No. 11 in the AP Poll, coming off a dominant win over Alabama, are underdogs to a three-win team that suffered an ugly three-game losing streak earlier in the year.

Such is life in the SEC.

For Tennessee, what a performance from the defense. The Vols' D limited Alabama to just 201 yards of offense and forced four turnovers. Tennessee is currently No. 9 in scoring defense and first in the nation in sacks.

The issue, however, is that the offense never looked quite right. QB George MacIntyre wasn't superb, but he did enough. While we might not know the starter until game day, it seems likely that MacIntyre will get the nod over Faizon Brandon.

For South Carolina, it probably won't matter. In dire need of a win, the Gamecocks absolutely clobbered Florida in their last game before enjoying a bye in Week 7.

LaNorris Sellers had arguably his best collegiate game to date. Dylan Stewart was back and all over the place. All was right for one week.

Now, South Carolina will play at home against a team with massive hangover potential.

The timing is right.

The Pick: South Carolina (-2.5)

Wisconsin (+3) vs. USC

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For Wisconsin, Week 7 was a missed opportunity. There's no other way to shape it.

UCLA deserves credit for beating the Badgers with a backup QB, although Wisconsin had plenty of chances to win. Completing just six passes and throwing for 66 yards doesn't help.

Despite the lack of offense, the oddsmakers see this as a tight game. USC, which enjoyed a bye last week, comes into Week 8 with a solid 6-1 mark. However, the reality behind those numbers tells a different story.

USC played an ugly football game against Rutgers, lost to Oregon without its starting QB and nearly lost to Washington and Penn State.

Lincoln Riley deserves credit for finding a way to win those games. That's one way to look at it. Another is that the Trojans are due for a slip-up. This feels like a moment that fits that outcome perfectly.

Wisconsin must find a way to get quarterback Colton Joseph into a better rhythm. He should find success on the ground; that's the norm. But getting more comfortable as a passer should be the goal.

Defensively, Wisconsin should slow USC's offense. If the Wisconsin offense can do enough, don't be shocked if the Badgers win outright.

The Pick: Wisconsin (+3)

UCF (+6.5) vs. BYU

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Well, we know how the public will bet this one.

Coming off an enormous win over Notre Dame, BYU, which is now No. 2 in the AP Poll, is laying less than a touchdown against an unranked team with a .500 record.

The masses will flock to bet BYU.

In many ways, it makes sense. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier is excellent. BYU's defense just played a largely brilliant game. There's a lot to like about this program, as the development under Kalani Sitake is undeniable.

But let's make sure our memories aren't short.

This same BYU team struggled on the road against TCU and wasn't exactly dominant against Iowa State. That's not meant to take anything away from their efforts. It simply points out that these opponents have delivered close games before.

While the Cougars will travel after an emphatic win, UCF enjoyed a bye after two consecutive losses on the road. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins has played well while filling in for starter Alonza Barnett III. He'll start again.

At home, this team looks like it could push the No. 2 team to the brink. The oddsmakers feel that way, and so do we.

The Pick: UCF (+6.5)

Michigan (+7) vs. Indiana

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Football hangovers work in mysterious ways, and we're about to find out exactly how Indiana responds after suffering a loss—something it hasn't done in quite some time.

And it wasn't just any loss; this was a heartbreaker. 

Yes, Indiana could have beaten Ohio State if not for the play we alluded to at the very start. But to summarize the Hoosiers' performance on this play alone would be a mistake.

Indiana's offense looked out of sync, Josh Hoover missed a lot of easy throws and the Hoosiers' running game averaged just two-and-a-half yards per carry, albeit against a quality opponent and defense.

Michigan, meanwhile, has new life. Quarterback Bryce Underwood was benched for freshman Tommy Carr, grandson of Michigan legend Lloyd Carr. After entering the game, Carr led the Wolverines to a key win over Penn State.

While head coach Kyle Whittingham didn't officially name Carr the starter, it feels like a formality.

In terms of energy, this game features one team riding the high of its new starting QB playing at home. The other is trying to shake off the emotions of a really difficult loss.

Indiana wins. Michigan keeps it tight.

The Pick: Michigan (+7)

Other Games on the Card

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Memphis (-10) vs. East Carolina

The Tigers turned the ball over six times in an ugly loss against Tulane. They were still in the game for a while. Playing at home as a double-digit favorite should be exactly what this team needs.

TCU (-9.5) vs. West Virginia

Another sizable chalk, which feels somewhat noteworthy, given West Virginia's Week 7 win over Cincinnati at home. The Mountaineers won for us last week, although we still have serious concerns about that defense.

Kansas (+3) vs Baylor

The Baylor offense mustered just six points last week against TCU. The Bears are just a short favorite over a two-win team. It goes without saying, but Kansas could use this one badly.

Nevada (-5.5) vs. San Jose State

On the topic of backing two-win teams, enter Nevada. The schedule hasn't exactly been favorable of late, which is at least partly to blame. This week, the oddsmakers see things differently. As do we.

Arizona State (+3.5) vs. Kansas State

It didn't go well for Arizona State against Texas Tech. That's perhaps putting it mildly. Still, a short line against Kansas State, which hasn't looked quite right in its last three games, could be exactly what this group needs.