2015 Fantasy Football: Updating Trends Through Preseason Week 1

One week of preseason football is now in the books, and it’s time to take a look at some of the trends that developed following the first week of action. Which players—or groups of players—saw their fantasy stock rise or fall as a result of what transpired during the first slate of games?

The preseason is when NFL teams are able to find talent and eliminate waste. Fantasy football players should take the time to do the same. Here’s what should be on your radar as real football gets one week closer.

Trending Down: Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Andre Ellington is trending down despite playing well during the first preseason game, in which he caught a 53-yard pass. He is down because of Arizona’s recent move to sign running back Chris Johnson to a one-year deal.

Darren Urban, a writer for the Arizona Cardinals’ official website, on Tuesday tweeted several interesting tidbits about Ellington and the running back situation in Arizona. The most significant tweet from Urban is shown below:

"

Arians did not rule out Chris Johnson beating out Andre Ellington as starter. #CardsCamp

— Darren Urban (@Cardschatter) August 18, 2015"

Urban followed that up by saying he still expects Ellington to be the starter. However, the Cardinals did not draft a rookie (David Johnson) in the third round and sign Chris Johnson for no reason. There’s some smoke rising from the the Arizona backfield, and Ellington is trending downward as a result.

It's more probable than not that Arians’ suggestion that the starter isn't set is typical camp coachspeak, but the chatter obviously makes fantasy football owners a little less confident in Ellington.

Trending Up: Rookie Receivers

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Last year’s crop of rookie receivers—helmed by Odell Beckham Jr. and buoyed by Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks, John Brown, Sammy Watkins, Jordan Matthews and others—set a bar that, in truth, probably won’t be matched by another group of rookie wideouts for some time. But after just one week of preseason games in 2015, hype surrounding the newest class is already building.

Seattle Seahawks rookie wideout Tyler Lockett was electric in his preseason debut, returning four kickoffs for an average of 46 yards per return, including one touchdown. He also returned a punt 18 yards. Lockett didn’t catch a pass, but it’s easy to assume the Seahawks will attempt to get the speedster the ball in open space as much as possible this year.

Nelson Agholor of the Philadelphia Eagles also turned heads. He caught three passes for 57 yards and scored thanks to an impressive catch-and-run effort on his part. Agholor did have a drop, but that didn’t take too much away from what was a strong first outing.

“Every now and then you’re going to drop one of these, but all-in-all this guy (Agholor) had a heck of a day,” commented Steve Mariucci in a postgame analysis video posted on NFL.com.

Lockett and Agholor led the charge, but some other rookie wideouts impressed during the first preseason game as well. Phillip Dorsett led all Indianapolis Colts receivers in the first preseason game with four receptions for 51 yards, Stefon Diggs caught four passes for 40 yards, Devin Funchess caught two balls for 52 yards and Pittsburgh’s Sammie Coates caught six passes for 64 yards, though it must be noted that Coates was targeted 14 times and also had two drops.

It will be virtually impossible for this year’s group to live up to last year’s, but they are off to a good start.

Trending Down: Rookie Quarterbacks

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The top two picks of the 2015 NFL draft—Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Marcus Mariota of the Tennessee Titans—had rough starts in their preseason debuts. Neither player was terrible, but their performances served as a reminder that rookie quarterbacks aren’t always the surest bets.

Winston completed nine of his 19 passes for 131 yards, no touchdowns and an interception against the Minnesota Vikings. He also had a few bad exchanges at the snap (once in shotgun and once under center). Winston’s two biggest issues appeared to be overthrows and telegraphed passes.

He did, however, do a good job of staying in the pocket when pressure was mounting around him. And when things really did break down to the point of no return, he was able to escape the pocket and make something out of nothing with his legs on a few occasions, including a touchdown run.

In short, it was a mixed bag for Winston, but it definitely could have been better. If he continues to overthrow receivers and stare down his options, he could become a turnover machine.

The mixed bag metaphor applies to Mariota as well. He completed seven of his eight passes, but he did turn the ball over twice (one interception and one fumble).

Mariota was significantly more accurate than Winston, but his passes did not carry a high degree of difficulty. Per Pro Football Focus, Mariota’s average depth of target was 6.5, tied for 68th lowest among all quarterbacks that took a snap during the first week of preseason. By comparison, Winston’s average depth of target was 14.8, tied for seventh highest.

We obviously haven’t seen enough from either Mariota or Winston to make any sweeping judgements, but there’s room for improvement.

Trending Up: Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Rookie receivers got their own “trending up” slide for this article, but rookie running back Ameer Abdullah deserves his own space.

In reality, Abdullah was trending up even before the first slate of preseason games. His performance only served to accelerate the pattern.

The rookie carried the ball seven times for 67 yards against the New York Jets. His signature play was a dazzling 45-yard scamper that could have turned into an 88-yard touchdown if perennial All-Pro Darrelle Revis hadn’t been there to chase him down. Abdullah was separating himself from the rest of New York’s defense.

Another note about that play: Revis nearly stripped Abdullah when making the tackle. It’s a positive sign that Abdullah was able to hold onto the ball.

That play alone was enough to angle Abdullah’s trend line up. And, though it has nothing to do with Abdullah or fantasy football, watching Revis on that play was fun as well.

Trending Down: AFC East and NFC East

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It wasn’t the best week for the AFC East and NFC East in terms of fantasy football. It’s odd to see a host of negative stories that are seemingly unrelated all tied to teams within the same two divisions—the two East divisions, no less.

In New England, Tom Brady remains suspended, with Adam Schefter reporting on Tuesday that settlement talks are going “nowhere.”

Schefter also reported that Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy left practice with a strained hamstring. The severity of the injury is not yet known. Additionally, Rex Ryan on Tuesday revealed that Percy Harvin is having issues with his hip again, per ESPN.com.

The Jets are still reeling from the Geno Smith incident as questions swirl as to whether or not he’s a player the team can rally around. If he’s not, it could lead to an unstable situation in New York, which doesn’t bode well for the fantasy value of wideouts Brandon Marshall or Eric Decker.

In the NFC East, Robert Griffin III is making headlines for the wrong reasons (even if they are superficial reasons), and Jordan Reed still isn’t ready to go because of a hamstring injury. This is a situation that is amplified by the fact that Niles Paul, Reed’s backup, suffered a season-ending injury during the preseason opener.

The Dallas Cowboys keep getting into fights, with the latest breakout being captured by Pat Doney of NBC Dallas-Fort Worth. The fighting bit wouldn’t matter too much to fantasy football players if Dez Bryant—the team’s most valuable fantasy asset—wasn’t involved in all of them.

You could find negative things about all of the divisions in the NFL, but the AFC East and NFC East are sticking out right now because their negative headlines revolve around players such as Brady, McCoy, Harvin, Bryant, Griffin III and others.

Trending Up: San Diego’s Backfield

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Rookie running back Melvin Gordon did not have the greatest of debuts—he was too hesitant at times and didn’t have any highlight-reel plays—but Branden Oliver and Danny Woodhead certainly made the most of their first action of 2015.

Woodhead scored on an eight-yard draw play in the first quarter, and Oliver scored on a 10-yard run in the second.

The Chargers’ two leading rushers on the night—Oliver and Jahwan Edwards—combined for 21 carries, 106 yards and a touchdown. In total, the team carried the ball 38 times for 135 yards and two scores.

Committee backfields are never fun from a fantasy perspective, but if the Chargers are able to carve out distinct roles for Gordon, Woodhead and Oliver, San Diego could be offering fantasy football players a trio or relevant options. The first week of preseason action showed that the team's stable of running backs is not only deep, but talented as well.