Mel Kiper Jr. Sounds Off on Arch Manning, 'Frustrating and Difficult' Evaluation of NFL Draft Stock

ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. says he has been having a hard time evaluating Texas quarterback Arch Manning during the Longhorns' 4-1 start to the 2026 season.

Texas suffered its first loss of the campaign last Saturday, when Manning went 19-for-31 with 260 yards and three touchdowns against Oklahoma before throwing two costly fourth-quarter interceptions.

"He is a very, very frustrating and difficult evaluation, because I sat there Saturday during that game, because I have a big board coming out at the end of this week," Kiper said about Manning on ESPN's First Draft, around the 1:20 mark of the video below. "And I'm thinking, while watching that game, he belongs in the top 10. Where am I going to put him? Seven, 10, 12, maybe keep him in the top 15 somewhere?

"Then, as you kept watching— does he even belong in the top 25? Should he go back for another year?"

Saturday's game was tied at 17 points when Manning threw a pass that was intercepted returned 42 yards for a touchdown, marking the Longhorns' first pick six against since 2021.

Manning responded by leading a Texas touchdown drive to even the score, which was again tied when he threw his final interception of the game with less than 20 seconds remaining on the clock. Oklahoma sealed the upset win with a walk-off field goal.

Texas Longhorns - Oklahoma Sooners Highlights

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"The level of inconsistency is at an all-time high," Kiper said. "I mean, we don't know series to series what we're going to get from Arch right now."

Kiper concluded he feels Manning's talent is "undeniable" but that any team considering selecting him in the first round of the 2027 draft would have to be willing to keep him on the sideline for the start of his NFL career.

"If Fernando Mendoza sat and is watching and learning, Arch Manning would have to," Kiper said.

"Maybe it's not two, three, four years, like what happened back in the day when we had Aaron Rodgers waiting for [Brett] Favre and Jordan Love waiting for Aaron. Maybe it's not the Packer model. But it's gonna have to be very similar."

Manning was rated as Bleacher Report's No. 6 prospect and No. 2 quarterback of the 2027 draft class heading into the season.

On the latest B/R 2027 NFL Draft Big Board he was ranked as the No. 17 overall prospect and No. 4 quarterback behind Miami's Darian Mensah, Oregon's Dante Moore and Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss.

Manning will get the chance to improve his draft stock during a challenging upcoming stretch for the Longhorns. After facing visiting Florida this Saturday, Texas is scheduled to take on four straight ranked opponents in Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU.