Expert CFB Locks for Mississippi State vs. Alabama and Week 5's Biggest Games

After a month of football, we've learned plenty.

The SEC is loaded, whether you want to believe it or not. Miami has reloaded, even though the schedule has been, well, underwhelming. Lincoln Riley still can't win big games, which pretty much speaks for itself.

Oh, and a bet is never truly won until the final second is off the clock.

For further proof, just look at what happened at Tennessee and Michigan a week ago. The favorites, Texas and Michigan, were cruising toward covers. Then college football things happened, as they often do.

As for our weekly picks against the spread, we're looking forward to a massive month. September had some ups, but it was also packed with bad beats. This stretch will be ripe with winners. It's a matter of time.

As for this week, here's what we like.

Last Week's Record: 4-4

Year to Date: 18-21

All lines courtesy of FanDuel

Mississippi State vs. Alabama (-5.5)

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NFL scouts, take note. Two electric QB prospects seemingly destined for the 2028 draft will duke it out, and the winner will likely firmly entrench themselves at or near the top of the Heisman conversation.

In terms of football stories, Mississippi State has a lot working for it. QB Kamario Taylor has been sensational, accounting for 15 touchdowns in just four games. He's become a star seemingly overnight, dazzling with spectacular deep balls each and every week.

Keelon Russell has been just about as sensational, showing his arm and legs in the Crimson Tide's first four games. He struggled in the first half of Alabama's road game to Kentucky, although he eventually settled in.

That experience feels significant. Playing on the road in Starkville, with cowbells echoing throughout the stadium, presents a real challenge. At the very least, Russell has been in that kind of environment before and knows how to manage the potential jitters.

That experience will certainly help.

As for the rest of the team, neither defense should slow down either quarterback. It just feels like Alabama's talent across the roster, coupled with Russell's rapid development, will be the difference.

The Pick: Alabama (-5.5)

South Carolina (-2.5) vs. Kentucky

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Shane Beamer

To say Shane Beamer's seat is hot would be an understatement. Presently, with the team's best defensive player suspended and South Carolina's season on the brink of collapse, it's on fire.

The Gamecocks were thoroughly beaten by Alabama, with both the offense and defense struggling. Defensive star Dylan Stewart was later suspended following an on-field incident in which he punched an opposing player's helmet. His conduct also appeared to frustrate South Carolina's coaching staff, including Beamer.

So why are we doing this? Are we running toward the fire rather than away from it?

Well, it's what we do, of course. We tend to look at things from a slightly contrarian point of view, and that's likely how the public will see it.

Kentucky is ranked, playing solid football and looking much better than we expected it to. Still, given Texas A&M's struggles, beating the Aggies on the road doesn't look quite as impressive a few weeks later.

That's not to take anything away from Will Stein; he's been as advertised and then some. But winning on the road can be challenging, and the talent South Carolina has on its roster is still robust.

This one will be ugly. You have been warned.

The Pick: South Carolina (-2.5)

Iowa State (-3) vs. West Virginia

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Jaylen Raynor

We were on the Cyclones last week against Utah, and it was an emotional roller coaster.

For a while it was very bad. Then, things looked very good. Then, at the very end, the implosion finally arrived.

Iowa State deserves credit for coming back after falling behind 17-0. The end result, however, was essentially the same.

West Virginia knows the feeling, only the script was flipped. After jumping out to a double-digit lead, Oklahoma State took over. Perhaps more concerning for the Mountaineers, however, is the Pokes finished with more than 600 total yards.

Presently, West Virginia has the nation's No. 84 scoring defense. And now it will play its first road game of the season, visiting an environment that remains a challenge for opponents.

QB Jaylen Raynor has to play better for Iowa State, as does the offensive line. If they can avoid turnovers, they should come away with a win.

The Pick: Iowa State (-3)

Missouri (+5.5) vs. Florida

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Jadan Baugh

Life in the SEC can be difficult. It just means more, after all.

While that slogan can be tiresome, it carries some truth in 2026. The conference is deep, the emotional swings are massive and things evolve.

Florida doesn't need to look far and wide to understand this. Just look at what Ole Miss had to deal with last week, one Saturday removed from taking down former head coach Lane Kiffin and LSU.

Now, Florida must hit the road with a football hangover. Granted, playing at Missouri isn't as difficult as playing in The Swamp, but it's still a fascinating test for a team still trying to figure out exactly what it is.

For Missouri, it must find a way to rebound. The Tigers came up short against Mississippi State on the road on Saturday in a close game. It's a game, quite frankly, they could have and should have won.

Either way, playing at home will do this team well. Playing on the road could challenge Florida, especially if Missouri can contain Jadan Baugh and that explosive Gators run game.

UF wins, but it's close.

The Pick: Missouri (+5.5)

USC (-9.5) vs. Washington

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Lincoln Riley

Now, I know what you're thinking.

We made our thoughts of Lincoln Riley known in the introduction, and those thoughts haven't changed. His teams have struggled in big games, and that theme continued against Oregon last week.

But this game, while by no means small, should suit USC well. While the Trojans showcased some warts against Oregon last week, in particular with the Ducks' starting QB unable to play for much of the game, this team still offers plenty on the offensive side.

For Washington, this season just hasn't looked quite right. The Huskies lost outright to Minnesota, and they struggled against Washington State and Utah State earlier in the year.

It's hard to know what exactly has happened with the team's offense, although none of it feels quite right. Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. hasn't exactly dazzled, although the problems are much bigger than him.

This feels like a get-right game for the Trojans. The offense should hum, and the team should look different than the one we saw last week. After this week, well, all bets are off.

We'll cross that bridge when we get there.

The Pick: USC (-9.5)

Other Games on the Card

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Mike Norvell

Wake Forest (-12.5) vs. Stanford

While the early portion of the season can lie, Wake Forest's dramatic improvement seems very real. And although Stanford was kind to the bank account last week, this is a long road trip and a tough matchup.

Florida State (+2.5) vs. Virginia

Mike Norvell needs this game and then some. Perhaps that's putting it mildly. As for the teams, FSU has played tough competition; Virginia has yet to play on the road. The Seminoles pull off a mild upset.

Temple (+6.5) vs. South Florida

A 4-0 team is less than a touchdown favorite against a program with one win? That would be correct. Still, Temple has played a competitive schedule and competitive games. Look out here.

TCU (+6.5) vs. BYU

Oh, this line spoke to me. TCU, which hasn't played all that well, is getting less than a touchdown against BYU. The public is likely to be all over the Cougars, which means we're going the other way.