2026 Week 5 College Football Predictions for Every Game

After a wild Saturday in the Football Bowl Subdivision, Week 5 provides an opportunity to take a collective breath.

Don't mistake that for a lack of marquee games, though.

Many college football teams—six of them in the AP Top 25—have an open date. It's a chance for those rosters to rest and prepare for a long, challenging run through conference play.

Nevertheless, three ranked matchups highlight the weekend, with seven Top 10 teams hitting the road. Chaos is always lurking.

Rankings are based on the AP Top 25.

Top Matchups for Week 4

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Ryan Coleman-Williams

No. 7 Alabama (4-0) at No. 16 Mississippi State (4-0), Noon ET

Knocking off Missouri was good and important. Shifting from "fun story" to "genuine threat" in the SEC, however, requires Mississippi State taking down Alabama. Kamario Taylor, a dynamic playmaker, deserves the hype. But there is still reason to be concerned about MSU's defense, which surrendered 400-plus yards to both South Carolina and Mizzou.

Prediction: Alabama 34, Mississippi State 24

No. 5 Ohio State (3-1) at No. 14 Iowa (4-0), 3:30 p.m.

Despite Iowa dominating the all-time series, Ohio State certainly hasn't forgotten a shocking 55-24 loss at Kinnick Stadium in 2017. There shouldn't be a repeat. Ohio State should be able to silence Iowa's offense. However, any trip to Iowa City deserves a mountain of respect.

Prediction: Ohio State 30, Iowa 13

No. 8 Florida (4-0) at No. 25 Missouri (3-1), 3:30 p.m.

Missouri has yielded 100.3 rushing yards per game at a paltry 2.7 per carry. If that run defense shows up Saturday afternoon, Mizzou has a real chance to spring an upset. Otherwise, Florida will be able to control the clock and open a season with a 5-0 record for the first time since 2019.

Prediction: Florida 36, Missouri 24

No. 4 Miami (4-0) at Clemson (3-1), 7:30 p.m.

Yet another Top 10 team on the road, Miami is poised to meet Clemson in a critical ACC game. Although the mood around Clemson is subpar, the Tigers are 2-0 in conference play and could shatter expectations with an upset. That's just not something I'm willing to project, given Clemson's struggles to find explosive plays and the upside of the Darian Mensah-led Miami offense.

Prediction: Miami 30, Clemson 20

Weekday Games

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Pitt (4-0) at Virginia Tech (4-0), Friday, 7 p.m. ET

Neither team is ranked, yet both are unbeaten. The winner of this matchup will be a serious contender in the ACC, especially since Miami eventually has to take on Pitt and Virginia Tech, too. I'll lean toward a raucous home-field advantage here, but Pitt is a balanced, dangerous visitor.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 29, Pitt 26

Western Kentucky (1-3) at New Mexico State (1-3), Thursday, 8 p.m.
Prediction: WKU 31, NMSU 27

North Texas (2-2) at Tulsa (3-1), Thursday, 9 p.m.
Prediction: North Texas 33, Tulsa 26

Liberty (3-1) at Delaware (2-2), Friday, 7 p.m.
Prediction: Liberty 28, Delaware 23

Penn State (3-1) at Northwestern (2-1), Friday, 8 p.m.
Prediction: Penn State 27, Northwestern 20

Saturday Early Games

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CJ Carr

No. 3 Notre Dame (4-0) at North Carolina (2-1), Noon ET

By the time 60 minutes have ticked away, this should be a comfortable Notre Dame win. How long, though, will UNC—which genuinely has a thorny defense—keep it competitive? The pressure is slowly rising for Bill Belichick. An ugly showing won't do his perception any favors.

Prediction: Notre Dame 41, North Carolina 10

UCF (3-1) at No. 20 Houston (3-1), Noon

Houston is a clear home favorite. Still, the UH defense is worth watching. Although that unit hasn't played particularly well so far, UCF's offense has managed just 206 and 266 yards in two games against Power Four programs. Houston has already proven it can move the ball offensively but needs to show the whole team can control a favorable matchup.

Prediction: Houston 30, UCF 20

Boston College (2-2) at No. 21 SMU (3-1), Noon
Prediction: SMU 36, Boston College 24

West Virginia (3-1) at Iowa State (2-2), Noon
Prediction: Iowa State 27, WVU 24

Stanford (2-2) at Wake Forest (3-1), Noon
Prediction: Wake Forest 38, Stanford 21

Michigan (3-1) at Minnesota (3-1), Noon
Prediction: Michigan 24, Minnesota 20

Middle Tennessee (2-2) at Kansas (1-2), Noon
Prediction: Kansas 35, MTSU 17

Syracuse (1-2) at Connecticut (2-2), Noon
Prediction: Syracuse 31, UConn 23

Navy (1-2) at Air Force (2-1), Noon
Prediction: Air Force 28, Navy 21

Michigan State (2-2) at Wisconsin (3-1), 12:30 p.m.
Prediction: Wisconsin 27, MSU 20

Vanderbilt (3-1) at No. 2 Georgia (4-0), 12:45 p.m.
Prediction: Georgia 42, Vanderbilt 13

Western Michigan (2-2) at Buffalo (2-2), 1 p.m.
Prediction: WMU 31, Buffalo 19

Toledo (3-1) at Ball State (1-3), 2 p.m.
Prediction: Toledo 34, Ball State 16

Saturday Afternoon Games

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Will Stein

Auburn (3-1) at No. 17 Tennessee (3-1), 3:30 p.m. ET

The first true road matchup of Auburn's season comes in Knoxville, where a pesky Tennessee team narrowly fell to top-ranked Texas last weekend. Beyond playing on the road, Auburn needs quarterback Byrum Brown—who's tossed an interception against all three P4 opponents—to shake his turnover streak. Otherwise, a likely Vols victory may turn into a lopsided UT win.

Prediction: Tennessee 31, Auburn 23

No. 24 Kentucky (3-1) at South Carolina (2-2), 4:15 p.m.

I won't bury the lede: I'm taking Kentucky. Really, the bigger story is whether South Carolina—should the Gamecocks lose—will be the first school in 2026 to fire a coach and part with Shane Beamer. Although his team is a slight favorite, South Carolina's defense surrendering 40-plus points to Mississippi State and Alabama is hard to overlook. Kentucky may whip the final dagger into Beamer's tenure.

Prediction: Kentucky 27, South Carolina 24

Louisville (2-2) at North Carolina State (2-2), 3:30 p.m.
Prediction: Louisville 31, NC State 24

Virginia (3-1) at Florida State (2-2), 3:30 p.m.
Prediction: Virginia 26, FSU 23

Cal (2-2) at UNLV (2-2), 3:30 p.m.
Prediction: Cal 30, UNLV 27

Memphis (3-1) at Charlotte (0-4), 3:30 p.m.
Prediction: Memphis 42, Charlotte 14

Samford at UAB (2-2), 3:30 p.m.
Prediction: UAB 38, Samford 10

Wyoming (2-2) at North Dakota State (4-0), 3:30 p.m.
Prediction: NDSU 34, Wyoming 13

Akron (1-3) at Central Michigan (2-2), 3:30 p.m.
Prediction: CMU 30, Akron 20

Eastern Michigan (2-3) at Massachusetts (4-0), 3:30 p.m.
Prediction: UMass 27, EMU 23

Ohio (2-2) at Kent State (2-2), 3:30 p.m.
Prediction: Ohio 28, Kent State 21

Bowling Green (0-4) at Miami (Ohio) (2-2), 3:30 p.m.
Prediction: Miami U 35, BGSU 17

Old Dominion (1-3) at Georgia State (3-1), 3:30 p.m.
Prediction: ODU 28, Georgia State 24

Marshall (3-1) at James Madison (4-0), 3:45 p.m.
Prediction: JMU 37, Marshall 23

Maryland (2-2) at Nebraska (4-0), 4 p.m.
Prediction: Nebraska 35, Maryland 20

UTEP (1-3) at New Mexico (3-1), 4 p.m.
Prediction: New Mexico 38, UTEP 17

Purdue (1-3) at Illinois (2-2), 4:15 p.m.
Prediction: Illinois 33, Purdue 24

Saturday Evening Games

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Bear Bachmeier

No. 10 BYU (3-0) at TCU (2-2), 7 p.m. ET

Last season, BYU regularly fell behind early in Big 12 road games before storming back in the second half to win. That's a very real possibility again as the Cougars take on a TCU defense that has held all four opponents to 21 points or fewer. Unfortunately for TCU, the offense hasn't held up its end of the bargain.

Prediction: BYU 24, TCU 20

No. 12 Texas Tech (4-0) at Colorado (2-2), 7:30 p.m.

Colorado opened the season with a dramatic win at Georgia Tech and cruised past lower-division Weber State. In losses to Northwestern and Baylor, the Buffs mustered a combined 20 points with a 25.9 third-down conversion rate and five turnovers. It'll be tough to see that trend reverse when Texas Tech comes to town.

Prediction: Texas Tech 38, Colorado 17

Oregon State (2-2) at Colorado State (2-2), 6 p.m.
Prediction: Oregon State 38, CSU 28

Texas Southern at Florida Atlantic (3-1), 6 p.m.
Prediction: FAU 45, Texas Southern 10

Arkansas (2-2) at Texas A&M (2-2), 7 p.m.
Prediction: Texas A&M 30, Arkansas 17

UTSA (3-1) at Rice (1-3), 7 p.m.
Prediction: UTSA 37, Rice 20

Georgia Southern (1-3) at Coastal Carolina (1-3), 7 p.m.
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 28, Georgia Southern 26

Louisiana-Monroe (0-4) at South Alabama (2-2), 7 p.m.
Prediction: South Alabama 31, ULM 20

Washington (3-1) at No. 18 USC (4-1), 7:30 p.m.
Prediction: USC 36, Washington 31

Utah State (1-3) at No. 22 Boise State (3-1), 7:30 p.m.
Prediction: Boise State 34, Utah State 17

Temple (1-3) at South Florida (4-0), 7:30 p.m.
Prediction: USF 29, Temple 17

Army (2-1) at Louisiana Tech (1-2), 7:30 p.m.
Prediction: Army 28, LA Tech 20

McNeese at No. 11 LSU (3-1), 7:45 p.m.
Prediction: LSU 59, McNeese 0

No. 6 Indiana (4-0) at Rutgers (1-3), 8 p.m.
Prediction: Indiana 38, Rutgers 21

Arkansas State (2-2) at Louisiana (3-1), 8 p.m.
Prediction: Louisiana 27, Arkansas State 24

Fresno State (3-1) at Washington State (1-3), 9:30 p.m.
Prediction: Washington State 28, Fresno State 27

Baylor (3-1) at Arizona State (2-1), 10:30 p.m.
Prediction: ASU 30, Baylor 23

Texas State (2-2) at San Diego State (1-3), 10:30 p.m.
Prediction: Texas State 33, SDSU 24

Cincinnati (4-0) at Arizona (3-1), 11 p.m.
Prediction: Arizona 31, Cincinnati 26

San Jose State (2-2) at Hawaii (1-3), 11:59 p.m.
Prediction: Hawaii 27, SJSU 20