Latest College Football Odds and Picks Factoring in New Weather Forecasts for Week 4 Schedule
Week 4 has the feel of the first of many make-or-break weekend for a handful of College Football Playoff contenders.
Six games takes place on Saturday between AP Top 25 teams.
Arch Manning and the top-ranked Texas Longhorns open the day with an early-afternoon trip to visit the Tennessee Volunteers.
That SEC clash doesn't have nearly as much drama as the primetime clash in Baton Rouge between the Texas A&M Aggies and LSU Tigers does. That matchup has the feel of a potential playoff elimination game.
Dante Moore and the Oregon Ducks might be in a similar situation on the road against the USC Trojans.
A&M, LSU and Oregon all enter the weekend with one loss. A second loss before the start of October might be too much to overcome to qualify for the 12-team playoff.
All of the forecasts and key weather information for Saturday's games can be found here on The Weather Channel.
Week 4 Top 25 Schedule, Odds and Weather
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Friday, September 25
Northwestern at No. 5 Indiana (-20.5)
Schedule: 8 p.m. ET, Fox
Forecast: Sunny, High of 72°F
Prediction: Indiana 35, Northwestern 14
Saturday, September 26
No. 1 Texas (-4.5) at No. 14 Tennessee
Schedule: Noon ET, ABC
Forecast: Mostly Sunny, High of 76°F
Prediction: Texas 27, Tennessee 17
IIlinois at No. 7 Ohio State (-27.5)
Schedule: Noon ET, Fox
Forecast: Sunny, High of 75°F
Prediction: Ohio State 42, Illinois 10
Sam Houston at No. 11 Texas Tech (-34.5)
Schedule: Noon ET, TNT
Forecast: Mostly Sunny, High of 86°F
Prediction: Texas Tech 44, Sam Houston 17
Wake Forest at No. 16 Louisville (-13.5)
Schedule: Noon ET, ESPN
Forecast: Mostly Sunny, High of 75°F
Prediction: Louisville 31, Wake Forest 21
No. 3 Notre Dame (-27.5) at Purdue
Schedule: 2 p.m. ET, Peacock
Forecast: Mostly Sunny, High of 72°F
Prediction: Notre Dame 42, Purdue 3
Oklahoma at No. 2 Georgia (-13.5)
Schedule: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Forecast: Sunny, High of 84°F
Prediction: Georgia 31, Oklahoma 17
No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 21 Florida (-3.5)
Schedule: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Forecast: Sunny, High of 83°F
Prediction: Ole Miss 27, Florida 24
No. 15 Utah (-8.5) at Iowa State
Schedule: 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox
Forecast: Showers, High of 64°F
Prediction: Utah 17, Iowa State 13
No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan (-5.5)
Schedule: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Forecast: Sunny, High of 69°F
Prediction: Michigan 21, Iowa 13
No. 25 Houston (-18.5) at Georgia Southern
Schedule: 4 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Forecast: Sunny, High of 80°F
Prediction: Houston 31, Georgia Southern 17
Wisconsin at No. 13 Penn State (-9.5)
Schedule: 5 p.m. ET, Peacock
Forecast: Sunny, High of 72°F
Prediction: Penn State 24, Wisconsin 10
Central Michigan at No. 6 Miami (-41.5)
Schedule: 6:30 p.m. ET, CW
Forecast: Mostly Sunny, High of 86°F
Prediction: Miami 55, Central Michigan 10
South Carolina at No. 8 Alabama (-12.5)
Schedule: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Forecast: Mostly Sunny, High of 88°F
Prediction: Alabama 37, South Carolina 17
No. 23 Texas A&M at No. 10 LSU (-8.5)
Schedule: 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Forecast: Mostly Sunny, High of 91°F
Prediction: LSU 31, Texas A&M 17
No. 20 Oregon (-3.5) at No. 12 USC
Schedule: 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Forecast: Mostly Sunny, High of 90°F
Prediction: Oregon 41, USC 37
No. 19 Missouri at No. 24 Mississippi State (-6.5)
Schedule: 7:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Forecast: Mostly Sunny, High of 89°F
Prediction: Missouri 27, Mississippi State 23
Missouri State at No. 22 SMU (-34.5)
Schedule: 9 p.m. ET, ACC Network
Forecast: Partly Sunny, High of 98°F
Prediction: SMU 55, Missouri State 10
No. 1 Texas (-4.5) at No. 14 Tennessee
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Arch Manning, Cam Coleman and the Texas Longhorns go on the road for the first time this season on Saturday in Knoxville.
They'll have ideal conditions to play in at Neyland Stadium. The high is projected to be 78 degrees in Knoxville on Saturday.
The Tennessee Volunteers haven't made much national noise yet in 2026 because they've produced three blowout wins.
Week 4 is the first chance for Josh Heupel's team to impress against a big-time opponent.
It'll also serve as the first test of freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon, who threw for 552 yards and six touchdowns in the opening three games.
Texas owns the advantage in experience across the board on offense, but that unit does come into Saturday with something to prove.
Manning had an up-and-down campaign away from home in 2025. He lost two games, completed under 65 percent of his passes in three of four road contests and threw two picks in a game in a road loss to the Florida Gators.
The nephew of Tennessee great Peyton Manning needs to play better on the road in 2026 for the Longhorns to retain their top ranking.
While the game is in Tennessee, the focus is solely on Texas and how its big-name players perform on the road.
Manning showcased that he could deliver in the clutch in Week 2 against the Ohio State Buckeyes. If he's better in the first three quarters on Saturday than he was in Week 2, we could walk away from the game with a better impression of the Texas quarterback.
Prediction: Texas (-4.5)
No. 23 Texas A&M at No. 10 LSU (-8.5)
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The premier SEC primetime clash of the weekend feels like a defacto CFB Playoff elimination game.
The Texas A&M Aggies and LSU Tigers are both coming off losses to kick off their respective SEC schedules.
Two losses in the SEC, where the schedules don't get any easier as the season goes on, before October 1 feels like a death sentence for a team's playoff viability.
LSU is an 8.5-point favorite because of its home-field advantage in Baton Rouge and its play from the first two weeks.
However, you'd be right to be hesitant about backing the Tigers off a loss to the Ole Miss Rebels and in a game without one of their star pass-catchers in Trey'Dez Green.
Green is one of the best tight ends and red-zone targets in the country. Sam Leavitt needs to open up the passing game more to suit his wide receivers, starting with Jayce Brown and Winston Watkins Jr.
The good news for LSU's offense is that it faces an A&M defense that gave up 408 total yards at home in the Week 3 loss to the Kentucky Wildcats.
Marcel Reed also struggled in the pocket in that defeat with two interceptions. The A&M quarterback threw multiple interceptions four times last season. All of those occurrences were against Top 25 foes.
Reed feasted on weaker teams last season, but he didn't fully meet the challenge of big games, especially at the end of the year versus Texas and the Miami Hurricanes.
Reed's turnover issues are a big red flag for A&M, which makes it more difficult to bet A&M as a touchdown-plus underdog than it does LSU as a strong favorite at home.
Prediction: LSU (-8.5)
No. 20 Oregon (-3.5) at No. 12 USC
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No one expected the Oregon Ducks' playoff hopes to be near life support by the end of September.
That's the reality with Dante Moore and Co. as they head to Los Angeles on Saturday night to face the USC Trojans.
Oregon's stunning road loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Week 2 put it in a perilous spot in the playoff conversation. USC is the first of three Top 25 opponents the Ducks face in Big Ten play.
Moore and Co. bounced back in resounding fashion in Week 3 with an 84-0 win over the FCS Portland State Vikings.
Moore hasn't turned the ball over through the air yet this season, but he did only complete 48.5 percent of his passes against OK State.
USC's Jayden Maiava owns a 75.7 completion percentage, 1,173 yards, 12 touchdowns and a single INT through four games.
USC scored at least 39 points in each of its four victories. It likely needs to hit the 35-40-mark again in Week 4 because its defense has struggled.
The Trojans conceded at least 26 points in three of their four games and are coming off a 42-35 win over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, who are widely viewed as one of the worst teams in the Big Ten.
At minimum, points are expected at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The over/under of 62.5 might be too low if the two quarterbacks find a rhythm early.
Prediction: Over 62.5
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