Expert CFB Locks for Florida vs. Ole Miss and Week 4's Biggest Games

Some weeks, the losses just wash off of you. You make a pick; it wins or loses, and you move forward. More times than not, that's what the weekly ritual looks like.

Some losses sit with you for much longer. In certain weeks, these moments—or "bad beats"—somehow pile up, making you wonder if the Football Gods are working against you.

We were on North Carolina State last week. The Wolfpack lost in historic fashion on the freakiest of final-second moments. If you haven't seen it yet, you can do so here. I've seen it enough.

We had North Carolina, too. The Tar Heels were up comfortably and driving before a weather delay stalled the momentum. Clemson then scored a touchdown late on a broken run to push this one the other way.

We could dwell on it a while longer, or we could move on. This sport is too glorious to bask in these bad beats for long. Instead, let's turn these moments into consistent winners.

Here's what we like in Week 4.

Last Week's Record: 4-5

Year to Date: 14-17

Florida (-3) vs. Ole Miss

Butch Dill/Getty Images

It's hard to imagine a football game this season with greater hangover potential than this one. To be honest, for Ole Miss, it's completely and utterly understandable.

All that emotion that went into last week's win over LSU—especially over former head coach Lane Kiffin—will unquestionably linger. Given all the hoopla, how could it not?

Heading to Florida to take on a dangerous program and a rejuvenated fan base in a difficult environment is a less-than-ideal encore after the weekend.

Granted, they still have Trinidad Chambliss. The Rebels' exceptional quarterback can make the impossible possible. He'll certainly test a Florida defense that just allowed 39 points.

Perhaps more concerning for the Gators, however, are the penalties. Last week, they tallied 16 in total for 138 yards. That won't fly against a quarterback and team this good. Period.

On the flip side, Florida has weapons. The wideouts are electric and running back Jadan Baugh might be the best player at his position in the whole country. The quarterback mismatch in this game might look robust, although Aaron Philo has been solid so far.

The talent is there, but sometimes games are decided by more than just players. Ole Miss, coming off one of its biggest wins in program history, will hit the road for the very first time.

The Gators are in prime position to take full advantage.

The Pick: Florida (-3)

LSU vs. Texas A&M (Over 51.5)

Icon Sportswire/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

One of these two teams is about to begin the season 0-2 in conference play.

Given the resources dumped into the roster, that reality is likely unacceptable to each fan base. And while desperation isn't necessarily an angle, it could provide both teams with plenty of motivation.

Presently, neither offense ranks in the top 35. Right now, neither offense feels stable, with injuries playing a role in that, too.

Still, both sides have speed and big-play potential.

Texas A&M was lucky to get past Arizona State a few weeks ago. The defense allowed nearly 400 yards of offense in that win, as the signs were there. A week later, Kentucky totaled 408 yards of offense in an upset win.

As for the quarterbacks, both are intriguing. Sam Leavitt and Marcel Reed produce in different ways, but the volatility of their performances could both help or hurt. Both score touchdowns. Both turn the ball over.

In this instance, the good—and the very bad—could help produce points. That's what we're in search of. That's what we'll get.

The Pick: Over 51.5

Iowa State (+8.5) vs. Utah

Matthew Holst/Getty Images

Through three games, Utah has outscored its opponents by a combined score of 142 to 24.

This includes a dominant win over Arkansas and a 33-0 shutout of Utah State in Week 3. What the Utes have yet to do, however, is play a football game on the road.

A trip to Ames, Iowa, a campus that has played spoiler—or at the very least flirted with the concept—will be a telling next step for a Utah team still growing comfortable with a new head coach.

So far, so good for Morgan Scalley, although moments like these will be telling.

As for Iowa State, I owe this team an apology. Given the mass exodus that took place when former head coach Matt Campbell left for Penn State, this season looked to be lost on paper. To date, however, the Cyclones have played hard.

This defense has been excellent, quarterback Jaylen Raynor has been solid and the results so far have been encouraging. Iowa State's 16-13 loss to rival Iowa on the road was eye-opening. Playing at home against a team that has yet to play outside its own stadium should be an advantage.

Ultimately, Utah wins, but Iowa State keeps it tight. 

Tennessee (+5.5) vs. Texas

Icon Sportswire/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

One team has been tested. The other really hasn't. 

While one could easily declare Texas' rousing comeback against Ohio State the deciding factor in a game of this magnitude, this feels more complicated. The last 15 minutes of that game against the Buckeyes was indeed impressive. The first 30 minutes, however, were a bit of a mess.  

For Texas, are we ready to fully trust Arch Manning in this offense at one of the best venues in college football? Maybe we should be, although this game (and spread) implies a challenge is in store.

In the early part of the season, the Vols have a few things working, albeit against manageable opponents.

Tennessee is currently No. 3 in sacks and No. 4 in rushing offense. Putting Manning in uncomfortable situations with pressure is a vital part of the game plan. Working the clock and running the ball is another. Such is an ideal formula to beat good teams. 

While the Longhorns have the more talented roster, Tennessee is doing a lot of very important things well early on. Those things will be tested this weekend, although a competitive game seems likely.

The Pick: Tennessee (+5.5)

Auburn (-9.5) vs. Vanderbilt

Butch Dill/Getty Images

The other side of last week's NC State shocker, of course, was a Vanderbilt victory.

Indeed, the Commodores were gift-wrapped a victory in epic fashion, although there will be no time to bask in the afterglow. A trip to Auburn is on tap, which is still an extremely difficult place to play, even if Florida made it look somewhat easy at times.

The good news for the Tigers is that they totaled nearly 400 yards of offense. The bad news? They allowed nearly 500.

The Auburn passing game finally showed some life. The flashes from QB Byrum Brown were there. After scoring just 17 points against Baylor in Week 1, the offense did a lot of really solid things, as the talent is evident.

For Vanderbilt, this will mark Jared Curtis' first road game. The 5-star true freshman throws a gorgeous football. Last game, however, he threw the ball twice to the other team.

At just 19 years old, this feels like a tall ask. Although Vanderbilt is 3-0, the performances haven't been dazzling. The point spread speaks to that, in many respects.

Auburn has by no means been perfect, but this feels like a matchup that could get potentially lopsided. 

The Pick: Auburn (-9.5)

Other Games on the Card

Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Stanford (+3.5) vs. Georgia Tech

Simply put, Georgia Tech isn't the same team it was a season ago. In fact, the Yellow Jackets are nowhere close. While Stanford is a massive work in progress, this game feels very much up for grabs.

Maryland (+1.5) vs. UCLA

We're back on the Maryland bandwagon, perhaps so a little reluctantly. The Terps were unable to keep up with Virginia Tech last week, but UCLA's long road trip makes this one an interesting spot. Mike Locksley needs this one.

UTSA (-13.5) vs. Colorado State

UTSA's game against Texas last week went as one might expect. That doesn't mean this team isn't capable. In fact, the win over Texas State in Week 2 looks good now. At home, this scoreboard could get sideways.