Predicting the NBA's Top 5 MVP Candidates In 5 Years

The days of LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant winning MVP trophies are behind us. Flash forward five years, and even the likes of Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Luka Doncic will likely have aged out of the MVP race. 

The NBA is rapidly changing, and the old guard is slowly aging out, while a new crop of young talent has risen to take their spots.

Two quick caveats while predicting the field:

• Let's assume good health for everyone on this list.
• No players from the current rookie class qualify before seeing them in action.  

Here is a look at five potential MVP candidates, five years down the road.

Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

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Current Age: 22

This one is fairly obvious. The NBA needs to be ready for Wembanyama to contend for MVP over the next eight to ten years. He just finished third in MVP voting this past season in his third campaign, was the unanimous Defensive Player of the Year, and is only scratching the surface of just how good he is going to be. 

Looking back at last season's numbers, Wembanyama was a force on both ends of the floor. He averaged 25 points on 51.2/34.9/82.7 percent shooting splits while grabbing 11.5 rebounds and swatting away 3.1 shots per game. The Spurs had a 17 net rating while he was on the floor. He led these young Spurs to the Finals in his first postseason. 

What the rest of the NBA should be concerned about is that Wembanyama is only 22 years old and just getting started. He hasn't even found his consistent spot on the floor where he can operate and dominate, like Dirk Nowitzki would work the high post.

In a few years, the NBA world may be looking at Wembanyama as the best player on the planet.

Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves

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Current Age: 25

The No. 1 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, Anthony Edwards has lived up to the hype. He already has big moments under his belt in both the regular season and the playoffs. In six seasons, Edwards has made two All-NBA teams, two Western Conference Finals, and has led the Timberwolves back to relevance. 

Since Edwards' rookie season, his game has grown exponentially. First look at his three-point percentage: As a rookie, he shot 32.9 percent, and last season, he connected at a 39.9 percent clip. He evolved as a scorer into a legitimate playmaker for his teammates, even though his assist numbers have dipped the last two seasons from his career high of 5.1 assists in the 23-24 season.

The dip has more to do with teams playing more aggressively in their doubles on Edwards, which leads him to give up the ball early in possessions. With LaMelo Ball as his teammate, teams will not be able to double him as immediately as before. 

Edwards is a multi-tool player, operating as a playmaker, a three-level scorer, and a post scorer. On top of all that, he's an elite defender.

A season is coming when it all comes together. Five years from now, Edwards will be turning 30 and at the peak of his powers.

Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons

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Current Age: 25

It was just two seasons ago that Cade Cunningham finally broke out for the Detroit Pistons. There were flashes along the way, but Cunningham has been able to put it all together and just finished fifth in the MVP vote this past season. 

Two seasons ago, Cunningham averaged a career-high 26.1 points; last season, his scoring dipped slightly, but he averaged 9.9 assists a night.

Cunningham is coming into his own as a do-it-all ball player. He has been everything for the Pistons, as they went from a great turnaround story to last year's 60-win team. He cranked up his scoring during the last playoff, aided by shooting 40.2 percent from three on 7.3 attempts. 

That type of shooting is what Cunningham needs to bring with him to the regular season. He's a career 34 percent three-point shooter, and that will need to climb. Doing all this while maintaining a nearly double-digit assist average should put him in a position to be an MVP candidate, and five years from now, he will be right in his prime years.

Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks

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Current Age: 19

Coming off winning Rookie of the Year, Cooper Flagg in five years' time might be a true force for the NBA world to have to deal with. He'll be just 24 years old and just entering his prime. That should put him squarely in the range of being an MVP contender. 

The last 15 games of Flagg's rookie season should be used as the blueprint for ascent. During that stretch, he averaged 24.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists while coming up with 1.5 steals and 1.1 blocks per night. That is two-way excellence that also creates opportunities for his teammates. He has all the tools to be a multifaceted player who can lead a franchise.

Of course, after one season, there are areas that need work. He shot just 29.5 percent from three on 3.5 attempts for the year. The mechanics of his shot, though, are fine, and at Duke, he shot 38.5 percent from three.

Flagg should be a better three-point shooter going forward than he was in his rookie season. It should make his play even more deadly going forward. 

Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs

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Current Age: 20

This is a long-shot bid, but stay with me as I present my case.

Dylan Harper's numbers from his rookie season are not eye-popping: 11.8 points, 3.9 assists, 3.4 rebounds on 50.5/34.3/75.6 shooting splits in just 22.6 minutes a game off the bench.

The numbers don't dazzle, but Harper's game does.

With a litany of guards in San Antonio, Harper came off the bench last season but provided the Spurs with an all-important punch. He gets to the rim at ease, and, more impressively, he was able to do it in the playoffs against some of the toughest perimeter defenders in the NBA right now. He was the best Spurs guard in the Finals; he averaged 18 points and 6.4 rebounds per game; and he did not shrink under the spotlight. 

The elephant in the room, of course, is that Harper is teammates with Wembanyama. That will make it more difficult for him to get votes.

Teammates both getting recognized as potential MVPs, has that ever happened? Indeed, it has. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant finished fourth and fifth in MVP voting for the 2015-16 season. 

That said, there is still a lot that has to go right for Harper in the next five seasons. Obviously, he needs to be a starter. If that isn't happening by the 2030-31 season, something has gone seriously wrong.

After that, he needs to keep improving his game, especially his three-point shooting. 

Harper has the chance to be a truly special player, is already a key contributor on an NBA Finals team, and his role will only grow as he develops.

That growth might put him into MVP contention five seasons from now when he enters his prime. 

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Mo Dakhil spent six years with the Los Angeles Clippers and two years with the San Antonio Spurs as a video coordinator, as well as three years with the Australian men's national team. Follow him on X, @MoDakhil_NBA.