Big 12 Football Preview and Predictions for 2026 Season
Within a game built for chaos, the Big 12 has become a perennial source of intrigue and unpredictability in college football.
One thing we know, however, is Texas Tech has become the villain.
The reigning league champions had a drama-filled offseasonโmore on that laterโand enter as the clear preseason favorite. The rest of the conference is aiming to track down and displace the Red Raiders in 2026.
As the campaign nears, the expected threats are rivals BYU and Utah. But a rising Houston team, resurgent Kansas State program and Oklahoma State squad are just three of the many candidates in a fascinating Big 12 outlook.
Best Players
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Most national praise lands elsewhere, but the Big 12 has a fun group of QBs. Any of Arizona's Noah Fifita, BYU's Bear Bachmeier, Houston's Conner Weigman, Kansas State's Avery Johnson, Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker and Utah's Devon Dampier could be the league's best at the position this year.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, is plain loaded.
Among the numerous options, the Red Raiders have running back Cameron Dickey, tight end Terrance Carter Jr., defensive tackle A.J. Holmes Jr., edge-rusher Trey White, linebackers Ben Roberts and Austin Romaine and cornerback Brice Pollock.
Many players from North Texas followed Eric Morris to OSU, including star running back Caleb Hawkins and wideout Wyatt Young. Two other key receivers are Arizona State's Omarion Miller and Houston's Amare Thomas, while BYU's LJ Martin and West Virginia's Cam Cook are standout backs.
Cincinnati left guard Evan Tengesdahl is a returning AP All-American, as is Colorado wide receiver Danny Scudero after transferring from San Jose State. Utah safety Jackson Bennee is among the nation's most versatile players.
Top Storylines
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Texas Tech, the Villain
Backed by well-funded boosters, Texas Tech has become one of college football's most active programs in the transfer portal. Fair or not, that has made the Red Raiders a villain to some. The school's public defense of quarterback Brendan Sorsby during the gambling-related backlash added to the scrutiny and further fueled that perception. If Texas Tech drops a game in 2026, the reaction will be loud. But if the Red Raiders overpower the Big 12 again, the angst will be palpable.
Kansas State Legend Returns
Back in 2011 and 2012, Collin Klein helped K-State hit double-digit wins, claim a conference title and make a prestigious bowl appearance while also finishing third in Heisman Trophy voting as a senior. Pretty good rรฉsumรฉ! Now, the former offensive coordinator at K-State and Texas A&M is getting his shot as the head coach of his alma materโwith a QB, Avery Johnson, who plays a bit like Klein himself.
Big 12's Fight for More
Through two seasons of the 12-team College Football Playoff era, only the Big 12 winner has represented the league in the championship tournament. That was Arizona State in 2024 and Texas Tech last season. Can the Big 12 finally become a two-bid league in 2026?
Top Challengers
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Tier 1: BYU, Texas Tech and Utah
As if I needed more reason to believe in Texas Tech, the schedule looks wildly favorable, too. BYU and Utah are slated for a showdown in early November, and the winner of that matchup should be a prime Big 12 contender.
Tier 2: Arizona, Houston, Kansas State and TCU
It can hardly be overstated how much the conference is a wonderful mess. Arizona and Houston both tallied nine wins in the regular season last year, ending on the doorstep of the league title game. Kansas State has a soft schedule, it appears, while TCU's upside is compelling if the transfers click.
Tier 3: Arizona State and Oklahoma State
Speaking of transfers, these programs had a busy offseason in the portal. ASU has a difficult slate, considering it travels to Texas Tech, BYU and Arizona. Oklahoma State's level of turnover makes it tough to predict, too. But at their best, both rosters could ascend in the Big 12 race.
Coaches on the Hot Seat
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Honestly, quite a few!
The warmest seat is found at Baylor, where Dave Aranda has posted a 22-28 record since winning the Big 12 and finishing 12-2 in 2021. Worse yet, Baylor has ended with a 4-5 conference mark or worse in three of those four seasons.
Cincinnati has improved its record every year under Scott Satterfield, but a third straight second-half collapse could doom his tenure.
From there, the discussion is fascinating.
Kansas would not actually consider moving on from Lance Leipold, right? The program was horrendous prior to his arrival, but would missing bowl eligibility for a third year in a row be problematic?
Meanwhile, the Deion Sanders era at Colorado seems to be trending toward an uninspired end. The question, if CU struggles again, is how much the headlines are worth to a program fighting for on-field relevance.
Best Games
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Nonconference Games
Sep. 5: Auburn vs. Baylor (in Atlanta)
Sep. 12: Oregon at Oklahoma State
Sep. 12: Arkansas at Utah
Sep. 19: Tulane at Kansas State
Oct. 17: Notre Dame at BYU
In the early stages of nonconference action, Baylor and Utah are slated to take on SEC teams. Oklahoma State is set to meet Oregon for a massive test of the Pokes' revamped roster, and K-State hosts Tulaneโa Playoff team in 2025. BYU's national reputation could be at stake when Notre Dame comes to Provo, too.
Top Conference Matchups
Sep. 18: Houston at Texas Tech
Oct. 3: BYU at TCU
Oct. 10: Houston at Kansas State
Oct. 17: Arizona State at Texas Tech
Nov. 7: BYU at Utah
Houston has a prove-it opportunity at Texas Tech in Week 3, and that result will influence early expectations. Otherwise, the conference has many potential swing games leading to 2026's edition of the Holy War between BYU and Utah.
Best of the Rest
Sep. 12: Arizona at BYU
Oct. 31: Arizona State at BYU
Nov. 7: Oklahoma State at Kansas State
Nov. 21: Utah at TCU
Nov. 26: Texas Tech at TCU
If you align with the belief of "we basically know nothing" about the Big 12โand I wouldn't blame you at allโyou could plug any matchup here. These selections lean on key opportunities for presumed second- and third-tier teams.
Best Offense: Oklahoma State Cowboys
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Given the excellence of the North Texas offense under Eric Morris last season, it's not a bold prediction to say Oklahoma State's scoring attack will thrive. After all, many of those players followed him to Stillwater.
Nevertheless, the jump in competition is real. There's certainly no guarantee that OSU destroys the scoreboard in 2026.
The ceiling of this offense is enormous, though.
Drew Mestemaker paced the FBS with 4,379 passing yards last season, tossing 34 touchdowns to nine interceptions. Caleb Hawkins ranked third at 1,804 yards from scrimmage and accounted for 29 scores, and Wyatt Young also finished third with 1,264 receiving yards. That's a heck of a foundational trio.
Look, the whole unit is basically an ode to transfers. When we talk about revamping a roster, Oklahoma State has a completely rebuilt team.
But it might just be outrageous enough to workโand work well.
Best Defense: Texas Tech Red Raiders
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Between the overall talent on the roster and what seems like a soft slate, Texas Tech should have an elite defense again.
And last season, it was a phenomenal group.
Texas Tech generated a nation-best 32 takeaways and yielded an FBS-low 3.9 yards per snap. The unit ranked third nationally with 11.8 points allowed per game, including only three opponents scoring more than 17.
In 2026, the Red Raiders return All-Big 12 selections in defensive tackle A.J. Holmes Jr., linebacker Ben Roberts and corner Brice Pollock. Additionally, edge-rushers Trey White, Adam Trick and Jamond Mathis, defensive tackle Julien Laventure and linebacker Austin Romaine were all-conference picks at their previous stop.
As if that's not enough, the secondary is loaded with corner Amier Boyd, safety Brenden Jordan and hybrid defender John Curry.
The offense has a few questions to answer, but it'll be tough to score on Tech.
Projected Order of Finish
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1. Texas Tech
2. BYU
3. Houston
4. Kansas State
5. Utah
6. TCU
7. Arizona
8. Oklahoma State
9. Arizona State
10. West Virginia
11. Kansas
12. UCF
13. Cincinnati
14. Baylor
15. Colorado
16. Iowa State
Projected Title Game: Texas Tech vs. BYU
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The boring pick doubles as a reasonable one.
Not only would this be a clash of the most-respected teams entering the year, but it's also a rematch of the 2025 Big 12 Championship Game. A fearless prediction, I know.
That feeling aside, I simply don't see Texas Tech wasting its favorable outlook. As long as QB Will Hammond is healthy soon, a competent offense would likely be all the Red Raidersโbecause of their defensive potentialโneed to excel.
BYU's unproven receiving corps is a concern, but experience is scattered all around the rest of its roster. This should be a 10-win team for a third straight year, and BYU could secure its first conference crown since the 2007 Mountain West title.
The villain, however, is built to continue its Big 12 reign.
Projected Champion: Texas Tech
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