Buy or Sell Leo Carlsson and the Biggest Moves of the 2026 NHL Season
Right when you thought the NHL offseason was going by a little too peacefully, the Philadelphia Flyers go and shoot off fireworks before July 4 to get everyone excited.
The Flyers' offer sheet for Anaheim Ducks young star Leo Carlsson blew up the NHL world on Friday, and that's given us the opportunity to start weighing in on the signings, trades, and other moves accomplished in the offseason. After all, everyone is headed to the cottage, and that means summertime and the countdown to training camps opening is here.
We're buying and selling what's happened so far this offseason and deciding whether or not we like what's going on. Whether it's dealing out offer sheets, blowing up the salary structure with signings, or putting new names atop the league's highest-paid players list, we're judging it all.
Leo Carlsson's Five-Year, $90 million Offer Sheet with Philadelphia
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It's often said that if you're going to sign a player to an offer sheet, you have to make it painful or deeply annoying for the team that holds the player's rights so they won't match it. The Flyers opted to drop a nuke in signing young star Leo Carlsson to a deal that will pay him $18 million per season.
No matter what, at least for now, Carlsson will be the league's highest-paid player, and whether that's with the Flyers or the Ducks, he's going to get that contract. Both teams can afford him under the cap, and both have budgeted for this kind of contract. Then again, a deal worth $18 million per season accounts for more than 17% of the cap (17.3% according to PuckPedia.com). It's not a max deal, but it's the closest we've seen in a long, long time.
Carlsson's numbers don't necessitate that kind of contract, but when you're trying to sign someone away as a restricted free agent, the rules go out the window. He was outstanding last season with 67 points in 70 games for Anaheim, and he was the Ducks' No. 2 overall first-round pick in 2023. They can't lose a player like that, but if they do, you almost can't blame them because of the contract.
Philly, meanwhile, needs a No. 1 center, and Carlsson is that and will be that with the Flyers if he lands there. The historic aggressiveness of the Flyers organization makes sense, and given that two former Ducks young stars are already in Philadelphia with Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale, you know GM Danny Brière sent this offer sheet with some inside knowledge.
Now it's up to Pat Verbeek to decide whether the price can be stomached and how he'll get his own kind of revenge for it.
This contract will shatter the league's salary structure, but it will also ensure that GMs get their young star players signed ASAP. Carlsson was going to get paid big time eventually, but it'll be now, and probably for more money than anyone anticipated.
Outcome: Buy
Lightning Sign John Carlson For Two Years, $17 Million
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Arguably, John Carlson was the biggest name and the best defenseman on the free-agent market. Carolina did their best to sign him after they acquired his rights from Anaheim, but couldn't lock him in. When July 1 opened up, and everyone had a shot at landing the veteran, it was the Tampa Bay Lightning who came away with the prize.
The 36-year-old blue liner and Washington Capitals legend comes back to the Eastern Conference on a two-year deal, coming off a great season. Sometimes players north of 30 years old can be questionable to sign, given you don't know how they'll perform, but blue liners, especially great ones, are easier to buy into, and Carlson more than qualifies.
Tampa Bay lost Darren Raddysh to division rival Toronto and replaced him with a great in Carlson. Adding him to a defense corps with Victor Hedman, J-J Moser, Ryan McDonagh, and Erik Černák makes the Lightning better, period. That signing him also kept him away from Florida, Carolina, and other contenders, which makes it even better.
Outcome: Buy
Bowen Byram's Six-Year, $75 million Extension with Chicago
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The Blackhawks believe Bowen Byram is a No. 1 defenseman, and they proved it by trading for him from Buffalo. They doubled down on that belief with the six-year extension that makes him the highest-paid defenseman in the league at $12.5 million per season.
Byram is a tremendously talented puck mover and offense creator. His postseason play with the Sabres in the first round against the Boston Bruins showed the kind of difference-maker he can be in big situations. His defensive struggles in the second round against the Canadiens also showed that things aren't always perfect for him, which is why his new deal with Chicago is so eye-opening.
That said, Byram has been part of a Stanley Cup-winning team in Colorado. He was vital to Buffalo in ending their playoff drought. He's never had the opportunity to play as a team's No. 1 defenseman before, thanks to being behind the likes of Cale Makar and Rasmus Dahlin, and now he'll be a No. 1 no matter what with the 'Hawks. Teaming up with Connor Bedard and leading young defensemen like Artyom Levshunov.
It's a big spot, and Byram will have a huge spotlight on him, but his confidence and the green light he'll have to create mean we'll see more of what makes him so good.
Outcome: Buy
San Jose Sharks Rebuild Defense with Darnell Nurse and Jacob Trouba
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We all knew the Sharks were going to target defensemen this offseason, and who they went after proved to be the big surprise.
San Jose swung a trade with Edmonton to acquire Darnell Nurse, giving up young defenseman Shakir Mukhamadullin in the process. They also signed free-agent defenseman Jacob Trouba to a four-year, $33 million deal and re-signed recently acquired blue liner Michael Kesselring to a three-year, $13.5 million deal.
The Sharks are on the rise with Macklin Celebrini at the forefront, and having a sturdier, steadier defense is vital for them to push into the postseason. It also helps young defender Sam Dickinson avoid getting overwhelmed. Although the veteran presence is important, it doesn't eliminate questions about how this new corps will hold up.
A change of scenery will do Nurse and Kesselring well. The nurse was under the microscope in Edmonton, and everything that could've gone wrong for Kesselring in Buffalo did. As for Trouba, the Sharks will need to hope his questionable defensive metrics from the past couple of seasons improve, or that the snarl in his physical game outshines it. San Jose got the help they were looking for, but it's raised a lot more questions.
Outcome: Sell
Edmonton Oilers get a Roster Makeover
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One of the busiest teams this summer has been the Edmonton Oilers. You could say they're in a bit of a desperate moment of time with Connor McDavid's contract counting down, but as long as they have him and Leon Draisaitl, they're contenders, so they need to act like it.
So far this offseason, they've signed goalie Frederik Andersen, traded away Darnell Nurse and added Shakir Mukhamullidin, traded for goalie Devon Levi out of Buffalo, signed defenseman Ryan Shea away from Pittsburgh (five years, $20 million), and re-signed forward Jason Dickinson (four years, $20 million) and defenseman Connor Murphy (five years, $20.5 million).
What got better: Edmonton's defense and goaltending depth, as well as their cap flexibility. Losing Nurse isn't great, but parting with his $9.5 million cap hit helps GM Stan Bowman free up space to add later. They brought back Kasperi Kapanen and added Mathieu Joseph to deepen their forward group. With Andersen and Levi in the fold in goal, if that can lessen Tristan Jarry's workload, that's potentially a good thing.
What's not better: Adding new players on defense is good and so is the added depth, but questions remain about how well they'll perform. It's great to have Evan Bouchard to drive offense and Mattias Ekholm for balance, but how the whole group comes together remains to be seen. With Mike Babcock coaching this team, their overall defense will have to improve, or else we'll have a different kind of drama.
You want to like what they've done, but it's hard to not be skeptical. Fortunately, McDavid and Draisaitl help cover a lot of issues.
Outcome: Tentatively buying
Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Sergei Bobrovsky and More
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The Maple Leafs, under new GM John Chayka, wasted no time in changing up the look of the roster from last season's nightmarish turn of events.
Toronto signed goalie Sergei Bobrovsky away from rival Florida (three years, $21 million) to join his old teammate, Anthony Stolarz, in tandem. Goaltending was rough last season for the Leafs, thanks to injuries and overall woeful play, but Bobrovsky's winning pedigree is hard to resist, even at age 37.
While landing Bobrovsky is the move that (rightfully) gets the most attention, the work Toronto did in remaking their forward group was astounding. Selecting Gavin McKenna with the No. 1 pick was the easiest move of the offseason. They also traded for Nick Paul out of Tampa Bay and signed Jack Roslovic, Colton Sissons, Teddy Blueger, and Brandon Duhaime.
McKenna will be a factor alongside Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies, but the rest of their forward signings completely remake their bottom six, highlighting speed, grit, and physical play. With new coach Jim Hiller in charge, what they're aiming to do seems clear, but how well it works in the stacked Atlantic Division will be fascinating to watch.
Trading Brandon Carlo to St. Louis and adding Darren Raddysh to the blue line appear to be positive changes, although rumors about trading Morgan Rielly persist. You can sort of see what the Leafs are trying to do with the roster, but we're left wondering if the right switches are being pulled.
Outcome: Hedging to sell
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