Playoff Probability Meter for NFL Teams That Hired New Head Coaches in 2026

The NFL head coaching carousel can spark immediate change. In 2025, three teams with a new lead skipper made the playoffs. 

So, we shouldn't be surprised when teams are impatient with suboptimal results. This offseason, nine clubs hired new head coaches. They're all in unique situations with obstacles that can affect the possibility of a quick turnaround.

We'll examine the challenges each new head coach faces and assess the team's potential for a playoff berth.

The playoff probability meter ranges from one to 10. Lower numbers project that a team will likely miss the postseason, while higher numbers suggest a club is more likely to make the playoffs this year.

Arizona Cardinals

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

Mike LaFleur

The Arizona Cardinals must resolve a contract dispute with journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Also, according to ESPN's Dan Graziano, edge-rusher Josh Sweat isn't happy with the team. 

The Cardinals' in-house issues aren't promising signs for a team in rebuild mode under first-year head coach Mike LaFleur. In addition to off-field matters, the new coaching staff has to work rookie first-rounder Jeremiyah Love into a crowded backfield and unlock wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.'s potential after his two underwhelming seasons.

In 2025, the Cardinals only won three games. Heading into training camp with major roster questions, they may match that record this year.

Arizona lost 11 of 12 games with Brissett as its starting quarterback. He doesn't deserve all the blame for the team's abysmal showing last year, but the 33-year-old signal-caller doesn't raise the club's ceiling either. Rookie third-rounder Carson Beck may see the field before the Cardinals look for a franchise quarterback in the 2027 draft.

Playoff probability meter: 1

Baltimore Ravens

AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough

Jesse Minter

Although the Baltimore Ravens have a new head coach for the first time since 2008, their playoff window remains open for as long as Lamar Jackson stays healthy.

Jackson has missed at least four games in three of his seven seasons as Baltimore's opening-week starter. In two of those campaigns (2021 and 2025), the Ravens missed the playoffs. In the other term (2022), they qualified as the No. 6 seed.

This offseason, Baltimore hired first-year head coach Jesse Minter, and he brought in first-time offensive play-caller Declan Doyle, who's only been an offensive coordinator for one year under Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson.

Jackson said Doyle's play-calling is "mind-blowing," but we'll find out if that translates to points on the board during the regular season.

As the Los Angeles Chargers' former defensive coordinator, Minter's units gave up the fewest points in 2024 and ranked ninth in scoring last season. Also, under his tutelage, the Chargers ranked fifth and 11th in yards allowed. He'll elevate Baltimore's defense, which finished 18th in scoring and 24th in total yards last season.

Even if Jackson needs time to get comfortable in Doyle's offense, the Ravens defense will keep this team in games. Baltimore won't miss the postseason in back-to-back campaigns.

Playoff probability meter: 8

Buffalo Bills

AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes

Joe Brady

The Buffalo Bills are similar to the Baltimore Ravens, with a more durable star quarterback.

The Bills have been a stable organization, opening nine consecutive seasons with Sean McDermott as their lead skipper. This offseason, they fired him and promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach. 

Brady has called plays for the Bills offense since the team fired Ken Dorsey in the middle of the 2023 season, so don't expect wholesale changes on that side of the ball. Buffalo will continue to score in bunches with Josh Allen under center. Brady may be able to draw up plays for more explosive gains with newly acquired wideout DJ Moore in the fold.

The Bills defense is a question mark with first-time play-caller Jim Leonhard on Brady's staff. Over the last two years, he's served as a defensive pass game coordinator, defensive backs coach and assistant head coach to Denver Broncos lead skipper Sean Payton. 

During Leonhard's time in Denver, the Broncos' pass defense improved from 19th to seventh in yards allowed. Also, cornerbacks Riley Moss and Ja'Quan McMillian made significant strides in pass coverage.

The Bills' offensive continuity and Leonhard's intriguing resume provide optimism for this team to remain in playoff contention.

Playoff probability meter: 9

Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Todd Monken

This offseason, the Cleveland Browns hired first-year head coach Todd Monken to replace longtime lead skipper Kevin Stefanski, turned over their entire starting offensive line and traded reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett.

Moreover, the Browns will have an open quarterback competition between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders at training camp. 

Because of all the changes and a lot of new parts on both sides of the ball, Cleveland is a long shot to make the playoffs this year. Team brass must be patient with Monken's tenure, as it starts with a roster rebuild and a big question at quarterback.

The Browns will be a fun watch, though. 

Rookie wide receivers KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston could take on significant roles in the passing game. Cleveland selected them in the first two rounds of the draft to improve its 31st-ranked passing offense from the previous season. Running back Quinshon Judkins showed flashes before he dislocated his ankle and fractured his fibula late last season.

Nonetheless, the Browns have a lot to figure out before they contend for a playoff spot.

Playoff probability meter: 1

Las Vegas Raiders

AP Photo/Lucas Peltier

Klint Kubiak

The Las Vegas Raiders play in arguably the toughest division in the AFC. If the Kansas City Chiefs bounce back from a 6-11 season, the Silver and Black may be the only team in the AFC West to miss the playoffs for the second time in three years.

On an encouraging note, Las Vegas made the right moves to elevate its young offensive playmakers this year. 

The Raiders hired offensive-minded head coach Klint Kubiak, who called plays for the Seattle Seahawks' third-ranked scoring offense last season. They signed three-time Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum to stabilize their offensive line. 

According to ESPN's Ryan McFadden, 14-year veteran Kirk Cousins is expected to start over No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza to start the upcoming season. 

Although that quarterback decision won't raise the excitement levels within the fanbase, Cousins played at a Pro Bowl level in Kubiak's system in 2021. He'll be able to get the ball to All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers and the team's complementary offensive playmakers. Mendoza won't have the task of saving the franchise in one season.

Defensively, the Raiders are still a mystery. The team promoted run game coordinator and defensive line coach Rob Leonard to defensive coordinator. He'll call plays for the first time in his career. 

Las Vegas will have an open position battle for the No. 2 cornerback spot. The team also needs a playmaking safety to emerge after Jeremy Chinn and Isaiah Pola-Mao allowed passer ratings above 120 in coverage last season.

Assuming the Raiders hold on to Maxx Crosby after the failed trade with the Baltimore Ravens, he's still the only reliable pass-rusher on the roster. Free-agent acquisition Kwity Paye is versatile, but he's coming off a four-sack season with the Indianapolis Colts.

Las Vegas may be set up for long-term playoff contention, depending on Mendoza's development. Yet, 2026 feels like a transitional year for a team that will take time to establish an identity on both sides of the ball while playing in a division of playoff contenders.

Playoff probability meter: 2

Miami Dolphins

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

Jeff Hafley

The Miami Dolphins' new regime parted ways with notable veterans, marking a new direction for the club. They released wide receiver Tyreek Hill, edge-rusher Bradley Chubb and traded wideout Jaylen Waddle to the Denver Broncos.

Heading into training camp, Miami is either depleted or inexperienced at key positions.

Quarterback Malik Willis is a first-time full-time starter. In four seasons, he's made just six starts, throwing for 1,322 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions with a 67.7 percent completion rate. Still a work in progress under center, the 27-year-old needs a strong supporting cast, but aside from running back De'Von Achane, Miami hasn't provided him with much help at the skill positions.

The Dolphins don't have a clear-cut go-to receiver. The Miami Herald's Omar Kelly believes Jalen Tolbert is the lead player of that group. He served as the Dallas Cowboys' No. 3 receiver in recent years.

Rookie first-rounders Kadyn Proctor and Chris Johnson will likely start at left guard and cornerback, respectively.

Miami is far from playoff contention.

Playoff probability meter: 1

New York Giants

AP Photo/Seth Wenig

John Harbaugh

The New York Giants made the splashiest hire in the head-coaching carousel, bringing in Super Bowl-winning lead skipper John Harbaugh. Based on how he managed his Baltimore Ravens squads, Big Blue could see a culture shift this year.

Harbaugh led well-coached, physical Ravens teams. The Giants can exhibit the same qualities in a turnaround season.

However, the club may need to bolster its roster depth to make a legitimate push for a playoff spot.

Harbaugh told reporters that he's unsure when wide receiver Malik Nabers will return from an ACL injury. Without the Pro Bowl wideout, Darius Slayton, Calvin Austin III, Darnell Mooney and rookie third-rounder Malachi Fields could see a steady number of targets in the passing game. Isaiah Likely may emerge as the go-to pass-catcher.

That said, quarterback Jaxson Dart expects the Giants to be a "run-first" team. While that may be a practical approach while Nabers recovers, Cam Skattebo must prove that he can stay healthy with his physical running style. Also, Dart struggled to stay on the field after taking big hits as a ball-carrier last season.

Early in the previous campaign, Skattebo took over the lead role out of the backfield, but he suffered a dislocated ankle, a ruptured deltoid ligament and fractured his fibula in Week 8.

Harbaugh hired defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson, whose Tennessee Titans defenses ranked in the bottom five in scoring in 2024 and 2025. He should field a strong front seven, though. Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux could be an aggressive edge-rusher trio with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and versatile rookie first-rounder Arvell Reese patrolling the middle. 

Big Blue has playoff potential, but the club's offense could be a disaster if Dart, Nabers and Skattebo miss significant chunks of the season.

Playoff probability meter: 5

Pittsburgh Steelers

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Mike McCarthy

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers will run it back with the Pittsburgh Steelers for another year. The Steelers hired head coach Mike McCarthy, who worked with the four-time league MVP for 13 seasons in Green Bay. 

At 42, Rodgers can still sling an accurate ball downfield. Last season, he threw for 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions with a 65.7 percent completion rate in 16 starts, leading the Steelers to 10 wins and an AFC North title.

Although Rodgers hasn't shown much sign of decline, one has to wonder if it's coming this year because of an unsettled offensive line.

Left tackle Broderick Jones is recovering from a neck injury. During the spring, the Steelers moved right tackle Troy Fautanu to the left side, and Dylan Cook shifted from left to right tackle. Rookie first-rounder Max Iheanachor could emerge as a potential starter at training camp.

Rodgers won't be able to keep the offense steady if he's uncomfortable in the pocket. Though even in that case, Pittsburgh can lean on the run game.

Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle could be one of the most productive running  back duos this year. Warren rushed for a career-high 958 yards last season. Under McCarthy's tutelage, Dowdle racked up 1,079 yards and two scores on the ground in 2024 with the Dallas Cowboys.   

The Steelers defense has some uncertainties with new play-caller Patrick Graham. He'll lead a unit that ranked 17th in scoring and 26th in total yards last season. 

As a perennial playoff contender, the Steelers have earned the benefit of the doubt, but their margin of error will be razor-thin in the upcoming term.

Playoff probability meter: 6

Tennessee Titans

AP Photo/John Amis

Robert Saleh

The Tennessee Titans could be the league's biggest surprise playoff team if quarterback Cam Ward makes a significant second-year leap, which is a realistic expectation with his revamped receiver unit.

Tennessee signed wideout Wan'Dale Robinson, who racked up a career-high 1,014 receiving yards last season. During most of his four-year tenure with the New York Giants, he played under offensive play-caller Brian Daboll, which bodes well for his role in the Titans' aerial attack.

Rookie first-rounder Carnell Tate has the upside to lead Tennessee's pass-catching group. Although he didn't post elite receiving numbers at Ohio State, he made strides through three collegiate years. Moreover, Tate produced big plays last season, averaging 17.2 yards per catch.

The Titans must do a better job of protecting Ward, though. According to Pro Football Focus, offensive tackles Dan Moore Jr. and JC Latham allowed eight sacks apiece. 

Titans' new head coach Robert Saleh has already put his fingerprints on the pass rush. Tennessee signed John Franklin-Myers and Jacob Martin and acquired Jermaine Johnson II from the New York Jets. All three played under Saleh during his time as Gang Green's lead skipper. 

With those solid additions around All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, the Titans will field one of the most improved defensive fronts this year. 

Saleh said he isn't concerned about Ward's inaccuracies during the spring. Still, the second-year quarterback must work on getting the ball out quicker behind a shaky offensive line.

The Titans can more than double their three-win total from last season, but Ward must be more efficient for this team to make the postseason.

Playoff probability meter: 4

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Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.