2003, 2004, and 2005 BCS All Over Again!!

We’ve seen this before.  A college team loaded with NFL talent defending their BCS Crown from the year before with a year removed Heisman Quarterback at its helm destined to go down as the greatest team and player EVER.  Just pencil them into this year’s BCS Championship game.  Another team ranked in the top 5, with enough talent to win but obviously not enough to beat the defending champions, goes into The Horseshoe, home of a top 10 Ohio State Buckeyes team at night with a record setting crowd.  The team wins a tough battle against the Buckeyes with a historic touchdown drive at the end that includes having more 1^st downs, passing yards and rushing yards that Ohio State in a true road game. But this win still does not put the team on par with the defending National Champions who breezed thru their first 2 non-conference games.  In the end though, the #1 Team in the land, the defending BCS National Champions lost in the Rose Bowl to the #2 Team.    

That Team, the #1 Team in the land, the defending 2004 BCS National Champions, USC Trojans featuring the previous Heisman Trophy winner, Quarterback Matt Leinart, and current Heisman Trophy winner, Running Back Reggie Bush, lost in the Rose Bowl to the #2 Texas Longhorns.  The Longhorns obviously had a great team, the only other FBS team that was unbeaten at the time, but since the media was enamored with the #1 Team in the land, it was an “Upset” that the #2 team won.  I don’t think it was an upset, I think people just decided no team was on par with the Trojans that year. 

Fast forward to 2009, and the first paragraph still holds true.  Just swap out the Gators instead of the Trojans as the champions, and the Trojans for the Longhorns as that other team.  One team is being tested, probably the entire season evidenced by a possible second true road game versus another top 10 team, on why their team isn’t going to win or how they’ll lose to another unranked team, while the other team is going to hear of their greatness for the entire year.  Obviously, Texas had all sorts of talent in 2005, but most people didn’t give them a real shot. 

The BCS as constructed features two human polls (Harris/Coaches) and 6 computers.  http://bcsguru.com does simulated BCS standings every week but using the Coaches/AP rather than the Coaches/Harris.  So far, four of the six computer rankings are out and until October 18^th (the 1^st release of the official BCS Standings) these simulations are spot on.  Florida is currently #4 in the BCS rankings due to their schedule.  One of the computers that the BCS utilizes has Florida #533 in the nation.  We could see another #1 ranked team in both human polls get left out again ala 2003, and it’s entirely possible. 

Texas plays four (4) teams left in the top 25 Coaches Poll.  USC will play a second road game against a top 10 team.  Florida plays @ LSU, Georgia and possibly ‘Bama or Ole Miss in the SEC Championship.  Once you add in the Florida International game, their computer ranking will plummet again.    We’re headed for a moment in truth in college football where scheduling soft non-schedule games could get you left out of the BCS Championship even with an undefeated season. 

Unfortunately, the last time 3 major BCS teams were undefeated, in 2004 with USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn, the SEC champion was not given an afterthought, and this was during an 11 game regular season rather than 12.  Why?  Well, non conference schedule.  Auburn played 3 games, all at home, versus Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech and I-AA Citadel.  Oklahoma played Bowling Green, Houston and Oregon all at home too.  USC played at Virginia Tech, at BYU, and Notre Dame.  The human polls won’t punish weak non-conference schedules, but the computers more than make up for it. 

Obviously this is only speculation and it’s week 2.  But that’s what makes college football so fun.  Should be a wild ride.