10 MLB Predictions for the Rest of 2026 Regular Season
The 2026 MLB season is halfway over, and it's already blown up roughly 99.9 percent of our expectations. It's been wild out there, to say the least.
So, what happens next?
We have a few ideas. To be exact, 10 predictions for what the rest of the regular season has in store. And they're of the bold variety, as predictions are only useful if they're interesting. Something like "The Los Angeles Dodgers will win the NL West" may have a high probability of being right, but nobody cares.
Read onโฆ if you dare.
Aroldis Chapman Will Be the Best Player Traded
1 of 10
Why It's a Hot Take
Well, of course Aroldis Chapman is going to be traded ahead of the August 3 deadline.
Their four-game sweep of the New York Yankees this past weekend doesn't change the fact that the Boston Red Sox are a no good, very bad, terrible team that should sell at the deadline. And while one could argue for Willson Contreras or Sonny Gray, Chapman is probably the most valuable piece they have to barter with.
Hypothetically, though, there are much, much better players on the trade deadline big board. Tarik Skubal! Byron Buxton! Joe Ryan! CJ Abrams! The list doesn't go forever before it reaches Chapman, but you get the point.
Why It Could Happen
Even now, though, you can at least rule out the Minnesota Twins trading Buxton after he and GM Jeremy Zoll came down firmly on the side of "Nope." Buxton's stance is especially meaningful, given his no-trade clause.
The Detroit Tigers, meanwhile, have turned things around with a 13-10 record in June. They played their worst baseball when Skubal was on the IL, so they may well take a cue that they can contend as long as he doesn't go down again.
Going further down the line, the Washington Nationals are too good to give away Abrams, while the Twins might as well keep Ryan if they're also going to keep Buxton. If so, it could be a dull deadline.
Craig Breslow and David Stearns Won't Survive the Season
2 of 10
Why It's a Hot Take
Speaking of the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow put himself and his own work in the crosshairs when he fired Alex Cora as manager in early April. Their situation has barely improved under Chad Tracy, resulting in a 35-46 record.
President of baseball operations David Stearns is in a similar spot after he and the New York Mets finally decided to show Carlos Mendoza the door on Friday. At 35-49, they're in an even worse spot than the Red Sox.
However, each of these guys has only been on the job since October of 2023. It's perhaps a bit early for their bosses to treat them as failures. And also maybe pointless, given the likelihood of a long lockout in 2027.
Why It Could Happen
Or, how about this: Both of these guys are bad at their jobs and deserve to suffer the consequences.
Stearns was meant to be for the Mets what Andrew Friedman has been for the Dodgers, but neither the math nor the optics are keeping up the illusion. The Mets have more losses than all but three teams over the last 365 days, and the roster Stearns built for 2026 felt like a bad idea even before the crud hit the fan.
Breslow at least had a solid vision for the 2026 Red Sox, but their failure is as much due to his miscalculations as the team's many injuries. His neglecting of the offense and his toxic connection to the clubhouse alone are grounds for dismissal.
Cal Raleigh Has 30 Homers Left in Him
3 of 10
Why It's a Hot Take
Cal Raleigh hitting 30 homers in half a season? In this economy?
Yeah, it's a reach. As of now, Raleigh only has eight homers through 52 games for the Seattle Mariners. Factoring in the month he missed with an oblique strain, the thought of him hitting 60 again is a ship that has sailed and is now on the other side of the globe.
Plus, dude's only hitting .165. For him, the goal has shifted from repeating as one of the league's best players to avoiding being one of its worst.
Why It Could Happen
The engine behind this prediction is running on pure, uncut optimism. Ever tried not rooting for a guy nicknamed "Big Dumper?" It's impossible.
In all seriousness, Raleigh has been a little unlucky this season. He should have more like 10 home runs based on his Statcast metrics, and that notion is easily supported by clear instances of him being robbed.
Also, Raleigh was a 30-homer machine even before his power completely broke containment in 2025. He's just plain better than he's shown this year, so it's totally worth having some hope up there in the Pacific Northwest.
Kyle Schwarber Will Get to 60 Home Runs
4 of 10
Why It's a Hot Take
OK, just because Aaron Judge hit 62 in 2022 and Cal Raleigh hit 60 in 2025 doesn't mean it's been decreed that 60-homer seasons are a new normal.
There are only 10 such seasons in the MLB history books, and Kyle Schwarber is not technically on pace to add another to the list. His 30 homers through 80 games put him on pace for 58, not 60. Huge difference, obviously.
Further, Statcast says he should have "only" 25 homers to his name. Even he's had some wall-scrapers, and some of those might actually start scraping the wall in the second half of the season.
Why It Could Happen
Ah, but any analysis that says "Philadelphia Phillies hitter is hitting more homers than expected" misses the point. That's what Citizens Bank Park is there for, so go figure that 19 of Schwarber's homers have been in Philly.
Meanwhile, he's only getting more locked in. Even if he's only homered eight times in June after tallying 11 in April and May, he's done so with a .429 OBP and just 35 strikeouts. If he keeps that up, better swing decisions figure to translate to more power.
If so, it wouldn't be the first time he really took off in the second half of a season. He's historically a second-half hitter, specifically posting an .890 OPS after the break compared to an .839 OPS before it.
Cristopher Sรกnchezย Will Pull Away in the NL Cy Young Award Race
5 of 10
Why It's a Hot Take
First Kyle Schwarber hitting 60 homers, and now Cristopher Sรกnchezย winning the NL Cy Young Award over Jacob Misiorowski. Is this a Phillies stan account?
To be fair, you don't have to be a fan of "The Miz" to have this reaction. He has been ridiculous for the Milwaukee Brewers, as he's out there throwing 105.5 mph and leading MLB in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. Even video game create-a-players think he needs to chill.
Sรกnchezย has been good, but not that good. Nor is he trending well, as he's given up 10 runs over his last three starts.
Why It Could Happen
Call it an overly pessimistic hunch, butโฆ is what Misiorowski is doing sustainable?
He's averaging 100.4 mph on the fastball, which is so unprecedentedโnearly 2 mph above the previous high for a starterโas to be suspicious in addition to awe-inspiring. Moreover, he's already just 30 innings shy of his high for his pro career.
So, yeah, one favors the guy who has been there and done that. Sรกnchezย pitched 202 innings with a 2.50 ERA just last year, so it's totally believable that he can sustain the 2.13 ERA and MLB-high 110.0 innings he has so far in 2026.
Nick Kurtz Will Pull Away in the AL MVP Race
6 of 10
Why It's a Hot Take
Well, somebody besides Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani has to win the AL MVP for the first time since 2020. And at this rate, it'll probably be Yordan Alvarez.
Alvarez is simply the best hitter in the sport right now, as he leads the majors in OBP, slugging, OPS and OPS+. And with 25 to his name so far, he's also tied with Byron Buxton as the best home run hitter in the American League.
To these ends, Nick Kurtz is to Alvarez what Cristopher Sรกnchezย is to Jacob Misiorowski. His .279/.423/.525 slash line and 19 homers are good, but not that good.
Why It Could Happen
What Kurtz has going for him, though, is that he's hot. He spent the first few weeks of the season getting on base but not really hitting for power, and now he's doing both. Since May 13, he's posted a .429 OBP and homered 14 times.
This is just who Nick Kurtz is. Since he debuted for the A's last April, he's one of two AL hitters with at least a 160 wRC+ and 50 homers. The other is Judge, whose rib injury seems to have doomed his chances at a fourth AL MVP.
While one can also say the same of Alvarez and the Houston Astros, don't put it past Kurtz and the Athletics to make the playoffs. Even at 40-44, they're only 1.5 games out in the wild-card race.
The San Diego Padres Will Miss the Playoffs
7 of 10
Why It's a Hot Take
This is a take that would have been right at home three weeks ago, but less so now.
Yes, the Padres went through a brutal 3-12 stretch between May 19 and June 5. But they're a respectable 11-9 since then, highlighted by a sweep of the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves last week.
Plus, the Padres' Manny Machado nightmare might finally be over. He's still only hitting .188 for the season, but he's gotten hot with a 1.190 OPS over the last week. Given his track record, it was surely only a matter of time before it happened.
Why It Could Happen
Even despite their recent course correction, the Padres woke up on Sunday morning tied with the Miami Marlins for the National League's third and final wild-card spot. Both are now chasing the St. Louis Cardinals, and it's a race the Padres probably can't win.
Because of their -13 run differential, the Padres' record should be more like 40-42. They're last in MLB in scoring, and any notion that their pitching can sustain them inevitably collides with the reality that they have a total Franken-rotation.
And how, exactly, are the Padres going to get meaningfully better? AJ Preller needs to add both impact arms and impact bats at the deadline, and either would be a tall task given his farm system might be the worst of any NL team.
The Miami Marlins Will Make the Playoffs
8 of 10
Why It's a Hot Take
The Marlins went 11-15 in April and 11-18 in May, so they're only in this discussion because of an 18-6 record in June. Recency bias much?
Yeah, and even now they don't jump off the page as some kind of secret super-team. The best way to see their true form is to focus on their offense's 101 OPS+ and their pitching's 103 ERA+. Both are slightly above-average, and no more.
If the Marlins slip after their hot June, that may well be all she wrote for their contention push. The front office is sure to be inundated with calls after the franchise's trade chips, up to and including 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara.
Why It Could Happen
Ah, but what if the Marlins are the Padres' Wario?
They entered Sunday with a mirror image of San Diego's run differential at +11, and nobody is looking at their offense or their pitching staff and going, "These things are bad, actually." Indeed, we literally just did the opposite.
According to FanGraphs, the Marlins also have an ever-so-slightly easier road ahead in terms of strength of schedule. They notably still get to play the Mets seven more times, a notable privilege in 2026.
The Cleveland Guardians Will Win the AL Central
9 of 10
Why It's a Hot Take
It's the Chicago White Sox who technically lead in the AL Central, and they do so with a +26 gap in run differential between them and the Cleveland Guardians.
That speaks volumes, and it's not as if the road ahead for the South Siders is filled with peril. Once again turning to FanGraphs, they have the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the AL.
The White Sox are also 13-12 since Munetaka Murakami went down with a hamstring strain. They've proved they can win without him, and they won't have to do so for much longer. He should be back after the All-Star break.
Why It Could Happen
On the flip side, we need to talk about pitching. And specifically starting pitching, which the Guardians have and the White Sox don't.
This has become especially apparent in June, wherein Cleveland's starters have a 3.58 ERA to Chicago starters' 5.55 ERA. The survival act the White Sox pulled in spite of that is not sustainable, as bad starting pitching inevitably creates too many deficits for an offense and too much work for a bullpen.
And just as the White Sox will get Murakami back after the break, so too with the Guardians get Josรฉ Ramรญrez back from a hamate fracture. They were 39-33 with him in the lineup, compared to 5-7 since his injury.
The Philadelphia Phillies Will Win the NL East
10 of 10
Why It's a Hot Take
Again with the Phillies? Really?
They're still looking up at the Braves and seeing a 3.0-game deficit in the NL East standings. That deficit exists in part because Atlanta has won five of six head-to-head matchups, with seven more chances to bury the Phillies still to come.
It's otherwise just plain hard to miss the warts when looking at the Phillies. They have two offensive stars, two aces and one of the best closers in MLB. Apart from those guys, how little they have is jarring.
Why It Could Happen
Even so, the Phillies are 38-18 since they fired Rob Thomson and replaced him with Don Mattingly. It's the best record in MLB in this span, and they just keep building on it as the Braves lose steam.
Atlanta is only 9-13 in June, mostly because its skeleton-crew starting rotation has finally been overwhelmed to the tune of a 5.62 ERA. And if guys like Tarik Skubal and Joe Ryan do indeed stay put, it'll be that much harder for the Braves to find salvation on the trade market.
For their part, the Phillies are already getting more from Jesรบsย Luzardo, and can still expect a lot more from Trea Turner. If so, even Dave Dombrowski might not feel desperate to cast his net for stars at the deadline.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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