Realistic Expectations for Every Rookie NFL QB After Minicamp Buzz

There were 10 quarterbacks taken in the 2026 NFL draft, but not all have the same expectations heading into their respective rookie seasons.

The projections for these signal-callers range from franchise saviors to developmental fourth-string practice squad bodies, with most of the rookie QB class falling towards the latter side of that scale.

A handful of these prospects will get the opportunity to make an early impact for the organization that drafted them. After some sizzling minicamp performances, it's looking likely that 2026 will mark the 17th time in the last 18 seasons that at least one rookie will start in Week 1.

With that in mind, let's highlight each drafted rookie quarterback and make some realistic expectations for how they will fare during their first NFL season.

First-Round Picks

AP Photo/John Locher

Fernando Mendoza

Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders (No. 1 overall)

The Raiders have real hope for the first time in a long time after their abysmal 2025 season led them to Mendoza.

The No. 1 overall pick won just everything there was to win during a legendary senior season at Indiana, a litany of honors headlined by a Heisman Trophy and College Football Playoff championship trophy.

Mendoza's next step will be his toughest yet, as he'll be tasked with starting from Week 1 and turning around a listless organization, one that has won just seven games over the past two seasons combined and lacks proven talent across the roster.

One of the biggest changes for the young passer is lining up under center, something Mendoza wasn't asked to do by the Hoosiers.

The quarterback told the official Raiders YouTube channel that he's made strides in that position during OTAs: "There's a lot more under center variables that I've been learning, getting a lot of extra reps in, and I feel a lot more comfortable under center. It's a great offense. I really believe in coach [Klint] Kubiak's offense."

If Mendoza is completely comfortable under center, it will open the offense and allow the Raiders to be more competitive in what is still likely to be a rebuilding year.

Mendoza isn't the favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award—he narrowly trails Jeremiyah Love at DraftKings Sportsbook—but a hot start could see him overtake the Arizona Cardinals running back and win another piece of hardware.

Realistic expectation: Offensive Rookie of the Year winner

Ty Simpson, Los Angeles Rams (No. 13 overall)

The Los Angeles Rams made the stunning and uncharacteristic decision to look towards the future when they were on the clock in Round 1.

The selection of Ty Simpson won't help their chances of winning a Super Bowl this season, but it does set the club up for a far smoother transition away from the Matt Stafford era.

Simpson immediately slots in as Stafford's understudy and should remain glued to the bench for the entire 2026 campaign. Given he started just 15 games during his tenure at Alabama, the rookie has plenty to learn and take in from the future Hall of Famer as well as head coach Sean McVay.

While Simpson isn't likely to see any meaningful NFL action until 2027 at the earliest, he might get some run in uncompetitive contests. Showing some promise in these situations will help the Rams feel more comfortable about their choice to take a quarterback in the middle of the first round who many experts didn't foresee coming off the board until Day 2.

Realistic expectation: Second-stringer who only checks in for mop-up duty

Third- and Fourth-Round Picks

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

Carson Beck

Carson Beck, Arizona Cardinals (No. 65 overall)

Beck became the third quarterback selected in the 2026 draft and has a real shot at seeing some significant playing time as a rookie. He landed in an ideal situation with the Cardinals, a team that parted ways with Kyler Murray shortly before drafting Beck.

While Beck will still need to beat out a pair of veterans in incumbent starter Jacoby Brissett—who has been embroiled in a contract dispute with the club—and free-agent addition Gardner Minshew II, the Miami product has the potential to quickly climb the depth chart.

He's a decisive, accurate passer who makes up for his limited arm strength and lack of mobility with quick, on-target throws.

Beck won't make Arizona a playoff team, but he'll provide a spark and make them a tougher team to beat once he takes the reins.

Realistic expectation: Starter by midpoint of the season

Drew Allar, Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 76 overall)

Like the Rams, the Steelers elected to punt on improving their 2026 odds and look towards the future by using one of their early draft picks on a quarterback who isn't likely to see any meaningful action as a rookie.

Allar is joining a crowded QB room headlined by an NFL legend in Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers also have longtime backup Mason Rudolph and sophomore Will Howard to contend with for a depth role, making it tough to envision the raw-but-talented rookie as anything more than a clipboard-holder this year.

Realistic expectation: Third-stringer learning the ropes from Aaron Rodgers

Cade Klubnik, New York Jets (No. 110 overall)

Klubnik slipped in the draft following a disappointing final season at Clemson. The quarterback had potential to be a first-rounder after he exploded for 3,639 yards and 36 touchdowns in 2024, but regressed significantly in 2025 and dropped all the way to the fourth round.

The New York Jets stopped Klubnik's fall in the fourth round, and while the beleaguered team has long struggled to develop quarterbacks, it's still a great landing spot for the polarizing prospect.

While he's been dealing with back spasms that have hindered his practice availability, Klubnik doesn't have much competition in the quarterbacks room, with Geno Smith being the lone veteran firmly ahead of him on the depth chart. He'll just have to beat out journeyman Bailey Zappe and underwhelming undrafted free agent Brady Cook for the QB2 role to open the season.

While Klubnik is unlikely to usurp Smith in 2026, he'll get valuable practice reps and put himself in prime position to compete for the starting job in 2027.

Realistic expectation: Geno Smith's backup

Fifth-Round Picks

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

Cole Payton

Cole Payton, Philadelphia Eagles (No. 178 overall)

Payton was one of the bigger rises of the pre-draft process, vaulting up boards after a single season starting as a dual-threat QB for North Dakota State. He showed out at the combine, putting his 40-inch vertical and 4.56-second 40-yard dash on display.

The Eagles were thoroughly tantalized by his size, athleticism and upside, enough to use a fifth-round pick and overcrowd a quarterbacks room that already contains Jalen Hurts, Andy Dalton and Tanner McKee. The latter could be on the move soon, however, as McKee has drawn interest around the league as a potential starter.

Because of the talent in that group, general manager Howie Roseman has revealed he may opt to keep four quarterbacks on the active roster in 2026 if McKee sticks around. That's a nod to Payton's potential, but he's not going to be anything more than a QB4 as a rookie with those other players blocking his path up the depth chart.

Realistic expectation: Developmental QB4, potential to move up if McKee is traded

Taylen Green, Cleveland Browns (No. 182 overall)

The Browns took a huge swing on a prospect brimming with upside in Green.

While he has the 6'6", 227-pound frame and all the unteachable traits that can help a quarterback succeed in the modern NFL—including blazing 4.36-second 40-yard dash speed and a 43.5-inch vertical leap—he lacked consistency during his time at Arkansas.

While GM Andrew Berry wants to keep four quarterbacks now that he's added Green to a group that includes Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel, he's also admitted that Green still needs to "polish" his craft.

Expect the rookie to be little more than a QB4 for the club in 2026.

Realistic expectation: Practice squad QB4

Last-Round Picks

AP Photo/Nick Wass

Athan Kaliakmanis

Athan Kaliakmanis, Washington Commanders (No. 223 overall)

After the Commanders slogged through an ugly 2025 season in which Jayden Daniels suffered a myriad of injuries and veteran backup Marcus Mariota underwhelmed, it wasn't a shock to see them pick up an intriguing rookie during the 2026 draft who can serve as their developmental QB3.

Kaliakmanis spent five seasons at Minnesota and Rutgers, showing promise as a high-IQ passer with a quick release over 42 starts. He still has a way to go in terms of accuracy, consistency and decision-making, but the Commanders could have something in a few years if he continues to steadily improve the way he did throughout his collegiate career.

Realistic expectation: Practice squad QB3 behind Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota

Behren Morton, New England Patriots (No. 234 overall)

Drake Maye finally made his much-anticipated leap in 2025, coming up just short in both the NFL MVP race and the Super Bowl. While Maye is clearly the long-term answer under center in New England, the Pats still opted to add some insurance behind the star starter during the 2026 draft.

Following the release of veteran backup Joshua Dobbs in March, there was an opening for a new QB3 who could study behind Maye and backup Tommy DeVito. Morton fits the bill as an aggressive, strong-armed rookie who hunts big plays. He's already shown an eagerness to learn and is comfortable in his depth role, traits that should help him stick around on New England's active roster as a QB3 in 2026.

Realistic expectation: Active roster QB3

Garrett Nussmeier, Kansas City Chiefs (No. 249 overall)

Nussmeier was the final quarterback selected in 2026, a rather surprising development given his potential to be a potential No. 1 overall pick heading into the 2025 season.

A woeful final collegiate campaign with LSU tanked his stock, a disappointment for Nussmeier but an outcome that could result in some immense value for the Chiefs.

Although the 24-year-old is undersized for an NFL passer, Kansas City is getting one of the strongest-armed signal-callers out there. He's a true gunslinger who isn't afraid to air it out and is fearless against the rush. He's a great fit for a freewheeling Andy Reid offense, even if it will take some time and luck to see the field.

Expect Nussmeier to begin his NFL journey buried on the bench, working behind both starter Patrick Mahomes and backup Justin Fields. If Mahomes is healthy, there's simply no chance he'll get any run and he'll be stuck on the practice squad as a rookie.

Realistic expectation: Practice squad QB3