Predicting 1 MLB Move For Every Team Before 2026 Trade Deadline
Major League Baseball's August 3 trade deadline is getting closer every day, which makes it that much harder not to imagine how things will pan out.
So, what the heck. We might as well predict one move for all 30 teams.
This was a tricky endeavor, as any effort to pitch 15 trades involving one buyer and one seller with no repeats will invariably strain one's imagination. As such, the focus here is on predicting the biggest trade each team will make.
One team's big sell isn't necessarily another team's big buy, but rest assured that each scenario will be thoroughly explained.
We'll begin in the American League East and end in the National League West.
Farm system and prospect rankings are according to B/R's Joel Reuter.
AL Central | AL East | AL West | NL Central | NL East | NL West
AL East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles (38-43): They'll trade Taylor Ward to the Rays
The Orioles are technically in the hunt for an AL wild-card spot, but the guess here is that they'll ultimately cut their losses by at least shipping out pending free agents. And by way of a .393 OBP and real power potential, Ward is the best.
Trading with division rivals is generally a no-no, but less so when there's essentially zero risk of the traded player haunting his original team in future seasons. That would be the case here, and trading with the Rays would allow the O's to get into MLB's No. 11 farm system.
Boston Red Sox (32-45): They'll trade Jarren Duran to the Diamondbacks
Blowing it up already feels like Boston's best course of action, and Duran might be the most valuable chip in their ample collection. Even if he only has a 78 OPS+ this year, the power and speed are there and his history includes a 9-rWAR season.
Sean McAdam of MassLive reported in January that the Diamondbacks have "long coveted" Duran, and they happen to be deep in one area where the Red Sox are very, very shallow: right-handed hitting.
New York Yankees (47-31): They'll get Ryan Jeffers from the Twins
There isn't much doubt that the Yankees want Jeffers, at least according to Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. And he fits them well as a right-handed counterbalance for Austin Wells, who's been a replacement-level straggler for two years now.
The Yankees have young arms to offer the Twins in exchange, though we're probably not talking Elmer Rodríguez or Carlos Lagrange. Somebody like Ben Hess, the Yankees' No. 5 prospect, would be more in line with Jeffers' trade value.
Tampa Bay Rays (43-33): They'll get Taylor Ward from the Orioles
The fit here is simple. The Rays need any kind of impact hitter, and there's no better place for one than in an outfield that has a .653 OPS. And since said outfield skews left-handed, Ward as a fit is too obvious.
The Orioles could look to extract an arm or two from a Rays system that has plenty of good ones. Second-ranked prospect Brody Hopkins could perhaps be in play amid a rough year, with someone like T.J. Nichols (No. 10) perhaps representing a more likely play.
Toronto Blue Jays (39-40): They'll get Sandy Alcantara from the Marlins
After digging themselves a hole earlier in the year, the Blue Jays have recently begun making their move with 18 wins in their last 31 games. But their rotation still needs a top-of-the-rotation arm, and Alcantara is one of the best they can get.
Miami would no doubt love to get either of Toronto's prized shortstops, JoJo Parker and Arjun Nimmala. But they're better off aiming for someone like Johnny King, who's now the Blue Jays' No. 4 prospect since going to them in the third round of the 2024 draft.
AL Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox (41-37): They'll get Seth Lugo from the Royals
It's a nice season the White Sox are having, but their starting rotation is threatening to undo it. It ranks dead-last in innings for the season, and it has a 6.71 ERA in June. A horse like Lugo is therefore a perfect target on paper.
Lugo is signed through 2027 with a club option for 2028, which is ideal for a White Sox club that is still early in its contention cycle. Even if it means upgrading an AL Central rival's farm, he's worth a lesser bat like Colby Shelton (No. 9) or Javier Mogollon (No. 10).
Cleveland Guardians (41-39): They'll get Jorge Soler from the Angels
It must be a year ending in a number, because the Guardians are short on power. They rank 29th in slugging percentage. For a contender in that position, trading for Soler is one of the oldest tricks in the book at this point.
Soler is in the last year of a three-year, $42 million contract, and what value he has is diminished by way of a 94 OPS+ since the start of last season. He therefore fits another Guardians prerequisite as a guy who can be had without sacrificing anything of note from the farm system.
Detroit Tigers (34-45): They'll trade Tarik Skubal to the Braves
We'll get to the Braves piece of this in due time. The real question right now is how certain anyone can be that the Tigers will sell. After all, Skubal got healthy again just in time to help boost them amid a 12-6 run through June.
That said, the Tigers are a long way under .500, and the danger of not trading Skubal is as potent as it's ever been. The alternative is losing him as a free agent and only getting a draft pick, which would only be worse if they indeed fail to rally for a playoff spot.
Kansas City Royals (34-46): They'll trade Michael Wacha to the Padres
Lugo is indeed a trade candidate. And so is fellow starter Kris Bubic, for that matter. But Wacha is the shiniest chip the Royals have to play, as he has a 3.48 ERA over an AL-high 101.0 innings.
Wacha is also signed through 2027 with a club option for 2028, which both gives him more value and the Royals extra incentive to move him now. Put simply, this is likely their last best chance to ditch the contract and get prospects for him.
Minnesota Twins (38-43): They'll trade Ryan Jeffers to the Yankees
Though one is uncertain how subtle it is, the buried lede here is that the Twins won't be trading Byron Buxton or Joe Ryan. The former is an easy call, as Buxton told Dan Hayes of The Athletic in no uncertain terms that he's a Twin.
Unlike Buxton, Ryan does not have a no-trade clause to exercise. But the Twins surely won't move him for less than a king's ransom, and such a haul may not be forthcoming in a market that will have plenty of ace-type starters available.
AL West
3 of 6
Athletics (38-41): They'll get Kris Bubic from the Royals
The A's are contending in the AL West despite their pitching, which bears an AL-high 5.00 ERA. And yet, it doesn't seem likely that they'll be shopping on the top shelf for help.
Hence Bubic, who stands to be a buy-low option because of A) a recent elbow injury and B) an expiring contract that only pays $6.15 million. A straight-up swap sending 10th-ranked prospect Tommy White to the Royals could be workable.
Houston Astros (38-43): They'll get Mickey Moniak from the Rockies
Surprise! Despite so much chatter to the contrary, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the Astros are planning on buying at the deadline. Their best play would be to lean into an offense that badly needs a left-handed hitter.
As a rental with a 115 wRC+ against righties since 2023, Moniak fits the right kind of risk/reward ratio for the Astros at this juncture. Given how hard his value has tanked, a trade involving former first-rounder Brice Matthews would be interesting.
Los Angeles Angels (33-48): They'll trade Jorge Soler to the Guardians
Once again, we have a situation where it's who's not listed here that represents the real take. Namely, not Mike Trout, Reid Detmers, José Soriano or Jo Adell.
A Trout trade has been the longest of long shots for a long time. The other three should be realistic candidates, but the Nightengale report referenced above claims that they're off the table. Call it confirmation that Angels owner Arte Moreno is still as clueless as he is rudderless.
Seattle Mariners (41-39): They'll get Antonio Senzatela from the Rockies
The Mariners' bullpen does rank sixth in the league in ERA, but don't be fooled. Matt Brash, Cooper Criswell and Carlos Vargas are hurt, and Andrés Muñoz seems to have been possessed by the spirit of Fernando Rodney.
Jerry Dipoto likes overlooked relievers, and Senzatela has become one of those (22 G, 2.23 ERA) after years of struggles as a starter. And even in a bad-contract-swap centered on Victor Robles or Rob Refsnyder, the Mariners might still only have to give up a low-level prospect for Senzatela, who's making $12 million.
Texas Rangers (38-41): They'll get Luis Arraez from the Giants
The Rangers arguably need power above all, but the thinking here is that they need a second baseman and table-setter more. They have gotten just 0.3 rWAR from the keystone, and the second spot in their order has a .293 OBP.
Arraez is thus an ideal upgrade, and certainly worthy of the pretty penny it'll cost to rent him for the rest of 2026. A fair trade could center on someone like No. 8 prospect AJ Russell, who looks like a second-round steal from last year's draft.
NL East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves (48-30): They'll get Tarik Skubal from the Tigers
The Braves check two major boxes as a suitor for the two-time Cy Young Award winner: they're a real World Series contender right now, and they badly need another top-of-the-rotation arm.
Whether they have the prospects to deal for Skubal is the question, but it's not out of the question. If they tell the Tigers to pick two of their three best pitching prospects—Cam Caminiti, JR Ritchie, Didier Fuentes—would they be able to say no?
Miami Marlins (41-39): They'll trade Sandy Alcantara to the Blue Jays
Alcantara has, of course, been the subject of trade rumors for years. And those have repeatedly gone nowhere, including when the team was in a similar spot as the one it's in now ahead of the 2025 trade deadline.
Given his 95 ERA+ dating back to 2023, though, the Marlins should probably give up on the pretense that Alcantara might again have trade value worthy of a Cy Young Award winner. And while the organization clearly has a solid floor, the focus on this point has to be on raising the ceiling by stockpiling prospects.
New York Mets (34-44): They'll trade Freddy Peralta to the Cubs
The Mets have been decent for a month now, and the looming return of Francisco Lindor could be what allows them to take off. But we're obviously not counting on it, in which case the question will become how far they'll push a fire sale.
Even if he only has a 4.83 ERA, Peralta's top-of-the-rotation creds and pending free agency would make him a sure goner. Apart from him, though, the Mets might only be able to get anything for guys like Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter.
Philadelphia Phillies (43-36): They'll get Matt Chapman from the Giants
Yeah, we're going for it with this one. And for two good reasons: the Phillies rank 29th in rWAR from third base, and 30th in wRC+ from right-handed batters. Chapman is thus the best two-birds, one-stone upgrade they can get.
Plus, getting Chapman from the Giants could be as simple as agreeing to swallow the last four years of his $151 million contract. The Phillies can afford to do so, and there's no better time to take such a chance than in the face of a closing championship window.
Washington Nationals (41-39): They'll get Garrett Whitlock from the Red Sox
The Nationals are already a pleasant surprise, so just imagine if their bullpen didn't have a 4.70 ERA and a league-low strikeout percentage. And of all the relievers they could acquire, few have the Swiss-Army-Knife usefulness of Whitlock.
The Nats would stand to control the righty through 2028 by way of two club options, and it might only help that Paul Toboni helped build Boston's farm system. A swap involving former top-100 prospect Brady House would be a fun concept.
NL Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs (41-37): They'll get Freddy Peralta from the Mets
The Cubs ranked dead-last in rWAR from starting pitchers, so they need to aim high as they can if they want to sustain their playoff push. And while earlier buzz about them being in on Peralta fizzled, it is a good fit.
The righty's value is somewhat suppressed, which is useful for the Cubs after so many years of promotions and trades have thinned out their farm. But even if the Mets ask for No. 1 prospect Pedro Ramírez, the Cubs might have to consider it.
Cincinnati Reds (37-41): They'll get Pete Fairbanks from the Marlins
The Reds' bullpen has a 4.79 ERA and a 13-17 record, so it's not a reach to say it's standing in the way of a proper contention run. Yet barring a winning streak between now and August 3, they should limit their sights to buy-low targets.
Fairbanks fits, as he's a free-agent-to-be with a 6.14 ERA, yet with the same electric stuff that formerly made a standout with the Rays. The Reds might even be able to get him for a reclamation project, such as No. 6 prospect Cam Collier.
Milwaukee Brewers (48-29): They'll get Aroldis Chapman from the Red Sox
As much as the Brewers could use another bat, their best route to the World Series is to go all-in on run prevention. Their bullpen could use another power arm, and Chapman is the best there is despite a couple recent stumbles.
As a reminder that ace relievers have inflated value at the deadline, Chapman was once traded for Gleyber Torres. The Brewers' No. 3 farm system should make them equal to the task, and one wonders if an MLB-ready catcher like Jeferson Quero could interest Boston.
Pittsburgh Pirates (39-40): They'll get Victor Caratini from the Twins
The Bucs could go in any number of directions at the deadline, but what they really need is someone solid behind the plate. Former No. 1 pick Henry Davis has seen the bulk of the action only to post a 45 wRC+.
Caratini has a career 92 wRC+, though his experience playing on winning teams should interest a generally younger team like the Pirates. He's on a two-year contract, so the offer would have to be worth the Twins' while. Wilber Dotel, Pittsburgh's No. 10 prospect, would surely get them to listen.
St. Louis Cardinals (42-35): They'll get Sonny Gray from the Red Sox
Gray recently told Tim Healey of The Boston Globe that he'd be willing to discuss waiving his no-trade clause again. And to hear it from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the veteran righty might "love" to get traded back to St. Louis.
These would have been ridiculous notions a few months ago, but not now. The Cardinals are a genuine surprise even without a stable rotation, and they know Gray could stabilize it. And since the Cardinals are already paying $20 million for Gray, adding his $31 million salary wouldn't be as huge a payroll hit as it seems.
NL West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-39): They'll get Jarren Duran from the Red Sox
Left-handed power is all the rage this year, yet only the Angels have gotten fewer home runs from lefty hitters than the Diamondbacks. Duran would at least lift that floor, not to mention that of an outfield where Corbin Carroll needs help.
As noted earlier, Arizona also has the right-handed sticks that Boston needs. Just to throw one idea out there, a gut-check trade of Duran for former top prospect Jordan Lawlar would be a lot of fun.
Colorado Rockies (31-49): They'll trade Mickey Moniak to the Astros
Yes, the implication here is that the Moniak trade with Houston would be a bigger sale for the Rockies than Senzatela to Seattle. But that says as much about how little Colorado has to deal as it does about anything else.
One name that would draw a crowd is catcher Hunter Goodman, who quietly has 21 home runs. But as a 26-year-old who's under club control through 2029, he's a building block for Paul DePodesta.
Los Angeles Dodgers (51-29): They'll get Rico Garcia from the Orioles
Not Tarik Skubal? Yeah, that's going against the market at this juncture. But it's also recognition that the Dodgers don't need to make a trade to have a super-rotation for October, whereas they probably do if they want to have a super-bullpen.
Despite some recent regression, Garcia still has a 1.95 ERA and 0.742 WHIP out of Baltimore's pen. Even though he's 32, his club control elevates his value, but probably not to a point where the Dodgers would have to subtract a top-10 prospect from their No. 1-ranked farm system.
San Diego Padres (41-37): They'll get Michael Wacha from the Royals
The Padres needed a starter even before they put Lucas Giolito on the injured list on Tuesday, and Wacha is a guy they know well. He had a 3.22 ERA as a Padre back in 2023.
A trade between Kansas City and San Diego might need to have a bad-contract-swap element, perhaps involving Jake Cronenworth. That way, the Royals could effectively buy a prospect to go with him, with No. 1 prospect Ethan Salas representing the best possible outcome.
San Francisco Giants (32-46): They'll trade Matt Chapman to the Phillies
Once again, the real story is who's not designated for a new home here. The Giants are said to be willing to listen on a bunch of dudes, including Rafael Devers and Willy Adames alongside Chapman and Luis Arraez.
However, it's hard to stress how underwater Devers' $313.5 million contract and Adames' $182 million contract are right now. That's a lot of money for two guys who have less rWAR combined (1.5) than Chapman (2.8) and Arraez (2.3) do individually.
