NBA Draft Lottery Odds and Prospects' Most Likely Landing Spots Revealed by Expert for Current Order

ESPN NBA draft expert Jeremy Woo broke down the lottery odds and likely first-round picks for every lottery team this week.

Ahead of the 2026 NBA draft lottery, which will take place Sunday at 3 p.m. ET, Woo projected the most likely pick for each lottery team, provided the lottery is chalk:

1. Washington Wizards (14% for No. 1, 52.1% for top 4): AJ Dybantsa, F, BYU

2. Indiana Pacers (14% for No. 1, 52.1% for top 4): Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas

3. Brooklyn Nets (14% for No. 1, 52.1% for top 4): Cameron Boozer, F, Duke

4. Utah Jazz (11.5% for No. 1, 45.2% for top 4): Caleb Wilson, F, North Carolina

5. Sacramento Kings (11.5% for No. 1, 45.2% for top 4): Darius Acuff, G, Arkansas

6. Memphis Grizzlies (9% for No. 1, 37.2% for top 4): Keaton Wagler, G, Illinois

7. Atlanta Hawks (6.8% for No. 1, 29.3% for top 4): Kingston Flemings, G, Houston

8. Dallas Mavericks (6.7% for No. 1, 29% for top 4): Mikel Brown Jr., G, Louisville

9. Chicago Bulls (4.5% for No. 1, 20.3% for top 4): Brayden Burries, G, Arizona

10. Milwaukee Bucks (0% for No. 1, 13.9% for top 4): Nate Ament, F, Tennessee

11. Golden State Warriors (2% for No. 1, 9.4% for top 4): Karim Lopez, F, Mexico

12. OKC Thunder (1.5% for No. 1, 7.1% for top 4): Yaxel Lendeborg, F, Michigan

13. Miami Heat (1% for No. 1, 4.8% for top 4): Labaron Philon Jr., G, Alabama

14. Charlotte Hornets (0.5% for No. 1, 2.4% for top 4): Aday Mara, C, Michigan

Regardless of how the lottery plays out, there seemingly isn't much mystery about who the top four picks will be in the 2026 NBA draft.

BYU's AJ Dybantsa, Kansas' Darryn Peterson, Duke's Cameron Boozer and UNC's Caleb Wilson are widely expected to be the first five players off the board in some order.

That is the exact order of selection in Bleacher Report NBA draft expert Jonathan Wasserman's latest mock draft, and there wasn't a difference until No. 5 when he had Illinois' Keaton Wagler going ahead of Arkansas' Darius Acuff Jr.

AJ Dybantsa Scores 34 Points vs. Texas Longhorns

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Outside of which teams end up with the top four or five picks, the most interesting aspect of the lottery may relate to what happens with the Atlanta Hawks.

Last year, the Hawks pulled off a masterful trade during the first round of the 2025 NBA draft, sending the draft rights of Derik Queen to the New Orleans Pelicans for the draft rights of Asa Newell and an unprotected 2026 first-round pick.

The Hawks will receive the more favorable pick between the Pelicans and Milwaukee Bucks, meaning they essentially have two chances to win the lottery.

When combining the odds of the Pels' and Bucks' picks, the Hawks have a 9.8 percent chance to get the No. 1 pick and a 43.2 percent chance to get a top-four pick.

If the Hawks are fortunate enough to do well in the lottery and come away with a player like Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer or Wilson, it could go a long way toward making them one of the teams to beat in the Eastern Conference.

This season, Atlanta made the playoffs as the No. 6 seed and had a 2-1 lead on the New York Knicks in their first-round series before the Knicks stormed back.

With a core of Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker already in place, potentially adding a top prospect to the mix is a scary prospect for the rest of the East.