Top 2026 NBA Free Agents Most Likely To Change Teams
Not every free agent this summer will be back with their current teams.
That shouldn't be a surprise for the 11 floundering teams with losing records. Still, some high-profile names on winning squads will relocate as free agents in July.
From the B/R list of top potential free agents, who is most likely to find a new home?
Quentin Grimes
1 of 5
The Sixers were reluctant to give Grimes the long-term deal he sought last offseason as a restricted free agent, leading to his one-year, $8.7 million qualifying offer for 2025-26. Soon to be unrestricted, Grimes will hunt out a payday.
The primary issue for the Sixers is a bloated payroll built around expensive veterans like Joel Embiid and Paul George. Tyrese Maxey will earn $40.8 million next year, and current rookie VJ Edgecombe has been a steady contributor. Grimes' role has diminished since the free rein he enjoyed after the Dallas Mavericks traded him to Philadelphia in 2025, when he averaged 21.9 points per game for the Sixers.
Putting it all together, Philadelphia doesn't seem like a franchise willing to go into the luxury tax for Grimes. Instead, he'll look for teams like the Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles Lakers, or Brooklyn Nets that project to have significant cap room this summer. Alternatively, he may go to a squad below the aprons willing to offer the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception at a projected $15 million. Another possibility could be a sign-and-trade, but his time in Philadelphia appears to be winding down.
Lu Dort/Isaiah Hartenstein
2 of 5
The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best team in basketball. Even if they repeat as champions, the franchise will face difficult decisions this summer as recent extensions for Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams kick in at $41.3 million apiece.
Should the team run it back as is, payroll would exceed $250 million with another $240 million in taxes. Understand that the Thunder absolutely can foot that bill; competing executives don't think they will.
The above assumes Kenrich Williams' $7.2 million team option is declined and that he isn't retained— based on price and roster space, since the franchise only has room for one of its two first-round picks without Williams. Someone else has to go, unless the Thunder trade a selection or draft a player who is committed to overseas play for a year.
Dort ($18.2 million) and Hartenstein ($28.5 million) may also find their team option declined. The Thunder are facing either monster luxury taxes or parting with one or both of their key players. Dort, at important as he is to the club, may be more expendable since Hartenstein can play alongside Holmgren, or in his place should the All-Star big man sit out games with injury.
The most likely path is for both players to be pushed into unrestricted free agency, with the Thunder hoping to negotiate a longer, but initially cheaper, deal with Hartenstein. The challenge is that he immediately becomes one of the top available big men on the market and a potential target for teams like the Los Angeles Lakers, Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets.
Peyton Watson
3 of 5
The Denver Nuggets hold all the cards with their restricted free agent forward, but will the team choose to let him go rather than face luxury tax and apron penalties?
Watson is finishing a breakout season, averaging 14.6 points a game on 41.1 percent shooting from three-point range. He'll turn 24 in September with good size at 6'8"—he's the kind of young player teams with cap room covet. The Los Angeles Lakers, Brooklyn Nets and Chicago Bulls would all welcome Watson this summer.
Since he's restricted, he'd need to sign an offer sheet, which would give Denver roughly a day to decide. The challenge is the sizable obligation to Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Cam Johnson. The franchise may need to let backup center Jonas Valančiūnas go to get under the second apron since only $2 million of his $10 million is guaranteed for 2026-27.
The solution would be trading Johnson to afford Watson, though cap-strapped teams may put enough pressure on the Nuggets in an offer to Watson that Denver opts to let him go.
Kawhi Leonard
4 of 5
Leonard is the wild card, currently under investigation for a potentially illegal contract that circumvents the salary cap, with the LA Clippers allegedly funneling money to the All-Star forward through a now-bankrupt company, Aspiration.
The NBA could clear the Clippers, owner Steve Ballmer, and Leonard entirely, but multiple sources consider a more severe punishment as reasonably likely. It's one of the most intriguing storylines of the summer that will test commissioner Adam Silver's mettle.
If the hammers come down hard on the Clippers, Leonard's contract would be voided, making him an unrestricted free agent who cannot re-sign with the team. He's losing his $50.3 million for 2026-27, hoping to find similar money from the Los Angeles Lakers, Brooklyn Nets or Chicago Bulls. If not, Leonard could land in Golden State with the Warriors at the non-taxpayer mid-level of $15 million—though the team would have to shed salary via trade to make that exception available. The Miami Heat are a team believed to be keeping a close eye on Leonard and the Clippers' messy situation.
LeBron James
5 of 5
On one hand, the Los Angeles Lakers have said they would love for James to retire with the franchise. On the other hand, the team is intent on building properly around All-Star Luka Dončić. Paying another $50+ million to James doesn't add up.
The likely path appears to be James moving on, perhaps to teams like the Golden State Warriors to play with Steph Curry and Draymond Green, or the New York Knicks in their pursuit of a championship. Other possibilities include former homes of the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Miami Heat.
The Lakers might be willing to pay James with their $9.4 million mid-level exception, or if the team strikes out on its primary pursuits, like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Trey Murphy III, Peyton Watson, or other high-level players that move the needle. Then, perhaps James is back for one more season.
Of course, the possibility remains that James retires outright, though he's still one of the league's more productive players despite his advanced NBA age at 41.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X @EricPincus and Bluesky.
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