Mock NBA Expansion Draft if Seattle and Las Vegas Picked Teams Today

NBA expansion is officially on the way, and it looks like we might even know which teams are joining the league.

On Wednesday, the NBA's board of governors unanimously voted to approve "exploring" the possibility of adding organizations in Seattle (presumably, a return of the SuperSonics) in Las Vegas.

ESPN's Shams Charania reported on the news:

Now, use of the word "exploring" suggests this isn't a done deal, but Charania added that it's a matter of "when, not if." All signs point to these two cities getting the league's 31st and 32nd teams, following a bidding period for potential owners.

And of course, that means we should get to see one of the NBA's most exciting, though rarely seen, events: an expansion draft.

Since we don't know exactly when these organizations will join and who will be under contract at that time, it's tough to predict exactly how that draft would go.

But, in the spirit of exploration evidently animating the league's owners, we're going to dive deep into what an expansion draft might look like if it happened today.

Protecting Players

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If you've never seen or read up on this possibility, the gist is that the two new teams get to populate their rosters with current NBA players they can "draft" from the 30 teams already in existence.

But they can't take anyone they want. Ahead of the draft, each organization is allowed to "protect" eight players, or make them off limits to the drafting teams.

And this part of the process can get mighty strategic. It's not as simple as just protecting your eight best or most talented players. Some teams may want to hang onto more youth. Contenders may be more inclined to keep their veterans. Some teams may have good players with bad contracts they'd like to ditch.

All of that and more has to be considered when deciding which eight players to take off the board. And that's exactly what we did for this exercise. Each and every team's payroll and roster was examined, and 240 total players were "protected."

You can see them all HERE, with each team having its own tab at the bottom of the page. The protected players are highlighted in red.

That same link also contains a tab with all the players who were not protected, and that list is the pool from which our expansion teams can draft.

The Draft

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Once that player pool was established, we had the two teams conduct their respective drafts, with Las Vegas and Seattle alternating picks 1 through 30 (for 15 players each).

Just for fun, the general strategy for Las Vegas was to lean more into experience and the potential to be competitive right away, while Seattle looked more for youth and potential (though both organizations tried to check both boxes to some degree).

And for a little less fun, we adhered to the salary cap rules for incoming franchises. The expansion draft isn't as simple as just taking the best player available every time you're up. That could run your payroll up to around half a billion dollars. And under current rules, expansion teams are only allowed to have payrolls up to 66.6 percent of the current cap in their first year of operation. In the second, it's up to 80 percent. By the third, they're on the same footing as everyone else.

For our purposes, we're using the 2025-26 salary cap, which means each team can only have up to $103 million in salary. Keeping the rosters below that number was challenging, but there's logic to both squads.

The final results of the draft can be found below (scroll right on mobile to see salary and selection):

Pick	Player	Annual salary	Team
1	Ja Morant	$39,446,090	Las Vegas
2	Jonathan Kuminga	$23,799,569	Seattle
3	Wendell Carter Jr.	$10,850,000	Las Vegas
4	Zaccharie Risacher	$13,197,720	Seattle
5	Royce O'Neale	$10,125,000	Las Vegas
6	Marvin Bagley III	$2,296,274	Seattle
7	Quentin Grimes	$8,741,209	Las Vegas
8	Bones Hyland	$2,296,274	Seattle
9	Craig Porter Jr.	$2,221,677	Las Vegas
10	Dalton Knecht	$4,010,160	Seattle
11	GG Jackson II	$2,221,677	Las Vegas
12	Russell Westbrook	$2,296,274	Seattle
13	Precious Achiuwa	$2,111,516	Las Vegas
14	Goga Bitadze	$8,333,333	Seattle
15	Jordan Goodwin	$2,349,578	Las Vegas
16	Karlo Matković	$1,955,377	Seattle
17	Baylor Scheierman	$2,619,000	Las Vegas
18	Josh Minott	$2,378,870	Seattle
19	Luka Garza	$2,461,463	Las Vegas
20	Collin Sexton	$18,975,000	Seattle
21	Gary Payton II	$2,296,274	Las Vegas
22	Miles McBride	$4,333,333	Seattle
23	Nicolas Batum	$5,601,600	Las Vegas
24	Paul Reed	$5,335,894	Seattle
25	Jock Landale	$2,296,274	Las Vegas
26	Jared McCain	$4,221,360	Seattle
27	Svi Mykhailiuk	$3,675,000	Las Vegas
28	Olivier-Maxence Prosper	$1,002,360	Seattle
29	Cam Whitmore	$3,539,760	Las Vegas
30	Brice Sensabaugh	$2,693,760	Seattle

And breakdowns of each team follow.

Las Vegas

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Guards: Ja Morant, Quentin Grimes, Craig Porter Jr., Jordan Goodwin, Gary Payton II

Forwards: Royce O'Neale, GG Jackson, Baylor Scheierman, Nicolas Batum, Svi Mykhailiuk, Cam Whitmore

Bigs: Wendell Carter Jr., Precious Achiuwa, Luka Garza, Jock Landale

There are some creative potential names out there for the Las Vegas squad, but we obviously won't know what's truly in the running before an ownership group wins the bid.

In the meantime, we can just go with Vegas and explain the thinking behind its draft strategy.

As mentioned above, to the extent possible, we wanted a little more experience on this team. And assuming Ja Morant would be able to stay healthy (and out of trouble in Las Vegas), this is a group that could at least be competitive from the jump.

Wendell Carter Jr., Luka Garza and Jock Landale have all shown some shooting upside at various points in their careers, so playing any of them at center would allow this team to run some five-out lineups with Morant slashing down the middle of the floor. Forwards and guards like Royce O'Neale, Nicolas Batum, Baylor Scheierman and Quentin Grimes could be the flanking shooters for those groups.

And although there is a fair number of veterans here, this draft didn't completely ignore upside. Twenty-one-year-old GG Jackson has had a number of big scoring games as a multipositional forward. And 21-year-old Cam Whitmore (who's out for the season but under contract for 2026-27) looked like a potentially dynamic wing during his first two years with the Houston Rockets.

Seattle SuperSonics

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Guards: Bones Hyland, Russell Westbrook, Collin Sexton, Miles McBride, Jared McCain

Forwards: Jonathan Kuminga, Zaccharie Risacher, Dalton Knecht, Josh Minott, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Brice Sensabaugh

Bigs: Marvin Bagley, Goga Bitadze, Karlo Matković, Paul Reed

The learning curve would certainly be a little steeper for this group. None of the young, core players have any experience as the alpha of an NBA team, but the potential is immense.

There is a good amount of shooting and switchability among that forward corps. There's versatility at the center spot with Marvin Bagley and Karlo Matković. And there's a good mix of upside (from Bones Hyland and Jared McCain) and experience (from Russell Westbrook and Collin Sexton) in the backcourt.

Those vets would have a pretty hefty responsibility as it relates to teaching this group how to play hard and be professional. A good coach will be very important for both of these teams. But on-the-job training can help too, and this team will get plenty of that.

Ultimately, it's short-term prospects rely almost entirely on Jonathan Kuminga. If he can grow into the No. 1 option he's long fancied himself, the future would get bright in a hurry. If not, the new SuperSonics would have to look to traditional drafts.