B/R Expert Predictions for the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

The Sweet 16 field is set after an exciting opening weekend of the 2026 men's NCAA tournament, and now it's time to start dissecting those matchups before the action resumes on Thursday.

With no team seeded worse than a No. 11 and only major-conference teams left standing, Cinderella was not invited to the party for the second year in a row, but expect plenty of high-level basketball in the second weekend.

Ahead, we've provided a rundown of what each of the remaining teams needs to do to win their upcoming showdown, along with picks from our team of college basketball writers on how they expect Thursday and Friday to unfold.

Let's set the scene for the Sweet 16.

No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 11 Texas

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Tipoff: Thursday, March 26 (7:10 p.m. ET on CBS)

Purdue Wins If: The talented trio of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn propel an offense that ranks No. 1 in KenPom's efficiency metric, and the Boilermakers are 24-3 on the year when they score at least 75 points. When Smith is dishing and the points are coming from all over the floor, this team is a national title contender.

Texas Wins If: The Longhorns do a great job getting to the foul line, shooting 25.7 free throws per game, and their best path to pulling off another upset will be to get one of those core players for Purdue into early foul trouble. Matas Vokietaitis is averaging 17.6 points and 8.1 rebounds with a .606 eFG% over his last 12 games, and he will need to be an anchor inside once again.

Predictions
David Kenyon: Purdue
Kerry Miller: Purdue
Joel Reuter: Purdue

No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Iowa

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Tipoff: Thursday, March 26 (7:30 p.m. ET on TBS)

Nebraska Wins If: The Cornhuskers are at their best in a high-scoring game, and they evened the season series with an 84-75 victory on March 8 after losing a low-scoring 57-52 game to the Hawkeyes in February. They did a great job limiting leading scorer Bennett Stirtz in the victory, holding him to 11 points on 4-of-10 shooting.

Iowa Wins If: The Hawkeyes are 3-10 in games where they surrender more than 70 points, so tempo is going to be everything in this game. Alvaro Folgueiras has stepped up with back-to-back 14-point games, while Kael Combs (15 points in first round) and Tavion Banks (20 points in second round) each had big games, and they will need someone to again step up in support of Stirtz offensively.

Predictions
David Kenyon: Iowa
Kerry Miller: Iowa
Joel Reuter: Nebraska

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Arkansas

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Tipoff: Thursday, March 26 (9:45 p.m. ET on CBS)

Arizona Wins If: The Wildcats average 13.1 offensive rebounds per game and generally control the glass and the paint, so they will need to maximize those advantages. Jaden Bradley and whoever else is tasked with guarding Darius Acuff Jr. will need to keep the freshman phenom from taking over the game and dictating the tempo.

Arkansas Wins If: Darius Acuff Jr. is averaging 29.8 points and 8.2 assists per game while shooting 51.2 percent from beyond the arc in his last six games, and that's the kind of hot streak that can put a good team on a title trajectory. The Razorbacks will need Trevon Brazile and the rest of their bigs to hold their own inside and avoid foul trouble, even if they are not the focal point offensively.

Predictions
David Kenyon: Arizona
Kerry Miller: Arizona
Joel Reuter: Arizona

No. 2 Houston vs. No. 3 Illinois

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Tipoff: Thursday, March 26 (10:05 p.m. ET on TBS)

Houston Wins If: The Cougars rank No. 4 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency and lead the nation with 8.4 forced turnovers per game, and that chaos will be the key to exploiting a deep, athletic Illinois team. It's a classic example of elite defense vs. elite offense, and Houston has a knack for pulling teams into their style of basketball.

Illinois Wins If: Keaton Wagler has been an X-factor for the Illini all season, and the team is 4-5 in games where he has at least three turnovers, so ball security for him and the rest of the Illinois guards will be key. With a size advantage and an offense that ranks No. 2 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency, they are the type of team that could push the Houston defense out of its comfort zone.

Predictions
David Kenyon: Houston
Kerry Miller: Houston
Joel Reuter: Houston

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 St. John's

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Tipoff: Friday, March 27 (7:10 p.m. ET on CBS)

Duke Wins If: With 15 turnovers against Florida State on March 12 and 16 turnovers against TCU in the second round, the Blue Devils have turned in two of their sloppiest performances of the season this month, and that will be a problem against the St. John's defense. If they can protect the ball and get a big game from Cameron Boozer, they'll survive their toughest test to date.

St. John's Wins If: Can Big East Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor control the paint against Cameron Boozer? Aside from his 16.3 points per game, he also averages 2.2 blocks and 1.2 steals as a defensive standout. The defense forced 16 turnovers in the second-round win over Kansas, and bringing that chaos to a Duke team that likes to play a slow, methodical pace will be the key to the upset.

Predictions
David Kenyon: St. John's
Kerry Miller: Duke
Joel Reuter: Duke

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama

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Tipoff: Friday, March 27 (7:35 p.m. ET on TBS)

Michigan Wins If: The Wolverines have a size advantage on everyone they play, and it's a significant advantage against Alabama, so they will need to make the most of the trio of Aday Mara, Morez Johnson Jr. and Yaxel Lendeborg. They should control the paint, but also need to close out on perimeter shooters against an Alabama team that leads the nation with 35.6 three-point attempts per game.

Alabama Wins If: The Crimson Tide are 4-8 when they score fewer than 90 points, so turning this into a track meet and spreading out the vaunted Michigan defense is going to be the key to surviving. Labaron Philon had five straight 20-point games before dishing out a season-high 12 assists in the second round against Texas Tech, and he will need to be the best guard on the floor.

Predictions
David Kenyon: Michigan
Kerry Miller: Michigan
Joel Reuter: Michigan

No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Michigan State

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Tipoff: Friday, March 27 (9:45 p.m. ET on CBS)

UConn Wins If: First and foremost, Tarris Reed Jr. needs to win the battle inside against defensive standout Carson Cooper. Establishing him as a scoring threat should in turn help open up the Huskies perimeter game. They are 10-1 in games where they make at least 10 threes, but they are just 13-of-49 from outside through their first two NCAA tournament games.

Michigan State Wins If: With 11.6 turnovers per game (191st in NCAA), protecting the basketball is the biggest key to success for the Spartans. They have also picked up their outside scoring of late, knocking down 32 threes at a 46.4 percent clip, and maintaining that hot shooting will go a long way against a stout UConn defense.

Predictions
David Kenyon: UConn
Kerry Miller: Michigan State
Joel Reuter: Michigan State

No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Tennessee

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Tipoff: Friday, March 27 (10:10 p.m. ET on TBS)

Iowa State Wins If: Getting Joshua Jefferson back would be a good start for the Cyclones, but they have proven they can play at an elite level even with their All-American watching from the sidelines. The defensive effort the Cyclones put together against Kentucky, forcing 19 turnovers in an 82-63 victory, was championship caliber. The X-factor will be finding enough offense if Jefferson sits again, and that starts with sharp-shooter Milan Momcilovic.

Tennessee Wins If: The Cyclones are 13-1 when they make 10 three-pointers and have the best shooter in the country in Momcilovic, so closing out on the perimeter needs to be the focus defensively. On offense, they can't let the Cyclones rattle them into turnovers, and that starts with point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie who needs to win the one-on-one battle with Tamin Lipsey.

Predictions
David Kenyon: Iowa State
Kerry Miller: Tennessee
Joel Reuter: Iowa State