Teams on Upset Alert on Day 2 of the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament
On the opening day of the 2026 NCAA tournament, March Madness lived up to its billing as four double-digit seeds won a first-round game.
Friday's slate may bring more chaos.
As neutral observers, we are completely here for it. That's part of what makes March Madness so much fun. Favored teams, though—and their devoted fans, of course—want nothing to do with the conversation.
Nevertheless, these matchups are circled for having serious upset potential due to a variety of factors, including player availability, stat comparisons and more.
Midwest Region: No. 5 Texas Tech
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At this point, Texas Tech supporters must be pretty sick of hearing about it. All-American forward JT Toppin is unavailable due to a torn ACL, and the Red Raiders understandably have struggled in his absence.
Texas Tech rattled off a 19-6 start with quality wins against Duke, Houston, and Arizona, demanding respect as a title contender.
But then, Toppin's injury changed the story.
Including the loss in which he exited, the Red Raiders went 3-4 down the stretch. They toppled Iowa State in a road upset, yet immediately turned around and fell to TCU, BYU, and then ISU in the Big 12 tournament.
Akron, meanwhile, won a MAC tourney championship to punch its ticket and boasts one of the nation's top offenses. The rotation is deep—seven members average seven-plus points—and includes a handful of players with March Madness experience. Akron shouldn't be fazed by the moment.
And the result may be Texas Tech dealing with an early departure.
Midwest Region: No. 4 Alabama
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After the bracket was unveiled, news broke of Alabama guard Aden Holloway being arrested on a drug trafficking charge. He's since been suspended and will not play Friday against No. 13 Hofstra.
Consequently, the first-round contest has a layer of uncertainty.
Alabama is certainly the more talented team, led by 20-point scorer Labaron Philon and a fast, perimeter-oriented offense. Even without Holloway, the expectation is that the Crimson Tide will advance to the second round.
Hofstra is a poor stylistic matchup, though, with one of the slowest tempos of all NCAA tournament teams. Cruz Davis is a 20-point scorer himself, while the rotation has decent size, rebounds well, and is pesky on the perimeter.
Unlike at Texas Tech, the warning signs are less apparent. Nevertheless, a short-handed situation could affect the Tide.
Midwest Region: No. 6 Tennessee
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This conversation is less about Tennessee—despite its potential issues—than the reality of playing a motivated, near-perfect opponent.
Miami (Ohio) ended the regular season at 31-0 before dropping its opening game in the MAC tournament. The selection committee kept the RedHawks in the field, but only as a No. 11 seed in a play-in game.
However, the trip to Dayton reinforced the danger of this Miami team.
Eian Elmer and Brant Byers combined to hit 10 threes, and the RedHawks set a First Four record with 16 triples. That was even without a contribution from key guard Peter Suder, a 40.9 percent long-range shooter.
Miami may simply outshoot UT, which is competent but limited offensively. The Vols rarely take threes and aren't particularly good at them, either.
Throw in a lingering ankle injury for star freshman forward Nate Ament, and Tennessee is vulnerable right now.
East Region: No. 5 St. John's
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St. John's enters the NCAA tournament with an odd juxtaposition.
Dating back to New Year's Eve—the beginning of Big East action—the Red Storm holds a 20-2 record. They capped the pre-March Madness run with an emphatic win over Connecticut in the conference tourney championship.
Simultaneously, the Big East is far from a stacked league this season. There were a not-insignificant number of ugly victories for St. John's, which has a terrific defense but lacks an efficient offense.
The critical part of St. John's success is its offensive rebounding. Northern Iowa is 30th nationally in preventing those opportunities, though.
If the 12th-seeded Panthers successfully slow the tempo to a crawl and control the glass, Rick Pitino and St. John's won't be long for March.
