Potential 2026 Bracket Busters in First Two Rounds of Men's NCAA Tournament

The beauty of March Madness is that everyone in the 68-team field has a potential path to a national championship, and every year, a few unlikely teams lead the charge in busting brackets.

Last year, No. 12 seeds McNeese State and Colorado State both pulled off first-round upsets, but the biggest surprise came from a major conference when a No. 10-seeded Arkansas team reached the Sweet 16.

Who will be bringing the chaos this time around?

Ahead of Selection Sunday, we've highlighted five teams with the potential to be bracket busters in this year's tournament, and the focus was solely on teams projected to fall below the No. 8 seed line.

These teams have a real shot at reaching the Sweet 16, but it will take at least one major upset, if not two.

Miami (OH) RedHawks

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Peter Suder

Projected Seed: No. 10

The RedHawks have been one of college basketball's most compelling stories, as they entered the MAC tournament with an undefeated 31-0 record and the No. 20 spot in the latest AP poll.

However, they fell to UMass in their MAC opener on Thursday, and now their fate is in the hands of the selection committee with a resume that doesn't do them many favors. They rank 269th in strength of schedule, according to KenPom, and their only victory over an opponent ranked inside the NET top 100 is a home win against Akron.

Still, it would be unwise to overlook a team that averages 90.7 points per game and leads the nation with 52.4 percent shooting from the floor. They also knock down 10.4 threes per game and have a well-balanced offense with six different players averaging double figures.

There is something to be said for a team that grows accustomed to winning, and the RedHawks will be out to show the world that their undefeated regular season was not a fluke.

South Florida Bulls

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Izaiyah Nelson

Projected Seed: No. 11

Few teams are hotter than the South Florida Bulls, as they have won nine straight and 12 of their last 13 games entering the AAC tournament, where they are the No. 1 seed and do not have to take the court until the semifinals in a stepladder-style bracket.

They have a pair of Quad 1 wins, including a victory over a good Utah State team that we will talk about more in a bit. However, the AAC is widely projected to be a one-bid league this year, so securing the automatic bid might be a necessity.

Assuming they do make the field, a defense that forces 14.3 turnovers and tallies 9.1 steals per game brings the right amount of chaos to fuel a potential upset. They also play with the second-fastest tempo of any team in the projected field, behind only Alabama. That will make them an uncomfortable matchup for anyone who doesn't want to run.

A 104-93 shootout when they faced off against the aforementioned Crimson Tide during non-conference play in December provided a glimpse into the sort of track meet they could bring to an NCAA tournament game.

TCU Horned Frogs

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David Punch

Projected Seed: No. 9

The TCU Horned Frogs season started in inauspicious fashion when they lost to the University of New Orleans in their season opener, a team that sits well outside the top 200 in NET ranking.

A few weeks later, they won the first annual Rady Children's Invitational in San Diego with wins over Florida and Wisconsin. Those peaks and valleys have been a recurring theme of their season.

A 2-6 stretch early in the Big 12 schedule put their NCAA tournament outlook in jeopardy, but they finished 8-1 to close out the regular season, adding marquee wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech along the way.

That proven ability to beat anyone makes them an extremely dangerous team, and one with the potential to really shake things up against a No. 1 seed during the opening weekend if they land on the No. 8/9-seed line as projected.

UCLA Bruins

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Donovan Dent

Projected Seed: No. 8

With returning All-Big Ten selection Tyler Bilodeau and elite-level transfer Donovan Dent headlining the roster, the UCLA Bruins began the season in the No. 12 spot in the AP poll. They were also picked to finish third in the Big Ten media poll.

Three losses during non-conference play and the lack of a marquee win knocked them out of the poll before the calendar flipped to 2026, and three more conference losses in the first half of January put them squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble.

The tides turned with a 69-67 victory over then-No. 4 Purdue on Jan. 20, and they went 9-4 the rest of the way, adding Quad 1 wins over Illinois and Nebraska down the stretch.

With legitimate star power, multiple wins over Final Four-caliber opponents, and a steady hand steering the ship in Mick Cronin, the Bruins are a dangerous draw capable of significantly outperforming their seeding.

Utah State Aggies

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MJ Collins

Projected Seed: No. 8

The Mountain West has turned into a perennial multi-bid league, sending at least four teams to the NCAA tournament in each of the last four seasons. However, it has rarely been clear who the best team in the conference is at any given time during that stretch.

This year, Utah State is the unquestioned top dog.

With an offense that ranks No. 28 in KenPom's efficiency metrics and a defense that sits just outside the top 50, the Aggies are a well-balanced team without a glaring weakness.

They have two legitimate stars in MWC Player of the Year Mason Falsley and All-MWC selection MJ Collins, who both average over 16 points per game, and go as many as 10 deep in their rotation.

If there's a red flag, it's the fact that they didn't face a major conference team all season, leaving them without a frame of reference for a superior athletic opponent. Still, all of the metrics point to this team being an extremely tough out in March.